中国蓝天行动导致全球能源价格飙涨

高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）和国际能源署（International Energy Agency）的分析师表示，中国消除雾霾的战争，正在使全世界的能源价格上涨。

促进使用天然气的政策，使中国今年的天然气使用量增长了19%，使中国成为全球第二大液化天然气进口国，带动了天然气现货价格上涨。包括克里斯蒂安·勒龙在内的多位高盛分析师在12月12日的一份研究报告中表示，更高的天然气价格提高了对煤炭的需求，而由于中国限制煤矿生产的政策，煤炭价格已经在持续上涨。

全球能源价格上涨，是中国蓝天行动带来的另外一个连锁反应。这场行动虽然在北京和其他被雾霾笼罩的城市改善了空气质量，却造成了国内天然气供应短缺，个别地区出现了迅速蔓延的供暖危机。

勒龙表示：“中国大量使用天然气，可能导致全球天然气价格进一步上涨，原因可能是天然气短缺促使部分中国消费者重新使用煤炭，从而加剧煤炭市场的紧张，或者中国最终吸引本应供应给其他国家的液化天然气。在这种情况下，中国清洁空气的行动将使其他全球消费者的成本增加，因为天然气通常决定了电力的边际成本。”

据行业期刊《世界天然气情报》统计，东北亚液化天然气现货价格本周上涨至10.05美元/百万英热单位，涨至自2015年1月份以来的最高水平。在伦敦洲际交易所欧洲期货交易所（ICE Futures Europe）交易的纽卡斯尔煤炭期货较去年上涨了15%，至98.65美元/吨。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

China’s war against smog is lifting prices for energy all over the world, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and the International Energy Agency.

Policies promoting natural gas use have helped boost China’s consumption by 19 percent this year and raised it to the world’s second-biggest importer of liquefied shipments of the fuel, lifting prices for spot cargoes. Higher gas prices are boosting demand for coal, which has already seen prices rise because of separate Chinese policies restricting mine production, Goldman analysts including Christian Lelong said in a Dec. 12 research note.

Rising global energy prices are another ripple effect of China’s blue skies efforts, which have improved air quality in Beijing and other notoriously smoggy cities but also resulted in natural gas shortages in the country and a burgeoning heating crisis in some areas.

“China’s dash for gas may lead to further increases in global gas prices, either because the shortage of gas drives some Chinese consumers back to coal and exacerbates the tightness in that market, or because China ends up attracting LNG shipments that would have otherwise gone to other countries,” Lelong said. “This would leave China’s push for cleaner air as creating a cost to other global consumers, as gas typically sets the marginal cost of power.”

Spot LNG prices in Northeast Asia rose this week to $10.05 per million British thermal units, the highest level since January 2015, according to industry publication World Gas Intelligence. Newcastle coal futures on ICE Futures Europe are up 15 percent over this time last year, at $98.65 a ton.