华尔街小心，亚马逊银行可能2018年问世

2018年会发生什么？可能会发生更多并购和收购，出现更多首次公开募股（IPO），美国两大科技巨头亚马逊和Facebook也可能会进一步攻城略地。以下是业内专家对2018年的预测。

支付

在支付领域，生态系统里最热门的是帮助零售商处理信用卡交易的环节。包括美国支付服务公司 First Data Corp.、Vantiv Inc.和华尔街巨头摩根大通旗下的商家服务机构在内，传统的支付领域大企业一直只盯着大型实体零售商的业务，却忽视了日益增长的电商，投入精力远远不够。因此Stripe Inc.和Adyen BV之类初创公司才有生存空间。新公司靠着开拓电商支付业务估值已经很高。现在的问题是，未来消费者的购物方式会怎样变化，传统支付企业如何才能迎头赶上？

贝恩资本旗下风投公司贝恩风投的董事总经理马特·哈里斯指出：“软银集团斥资30亿美元收购了在线支付公司Stripe 20%的股权。PayPal还在努力当金融领域的领头羊，服务千禧一代和普通大众。” 欧洲咨询机构凯捷管理顾问公司金融科技领域主管迪翁·莱尔预计：“以后会出现‘（亚马逊的语音助手）Alexa，买这个’或者‘（苹果的语音助手）Siri，我要在Uber上叫辆车，用美国运通信用卡支付。’之类指令，支付将由语音激活，因为比较安全。”

贷款

对网贷公司的股票投资者来说，2017年是震荡的一年。信贷审批不够严格的网贷公司普遍蒙受了损失。连LendingClub Corp.和 CAN Capital Inc.等老资历的网贷公司也在苦苦挣扎，努力寻找足够资金摆脱困境。专家们预计，明年网贷公司的严峻形势可能还会持续。银行终于有组织地有效行动起来，这意味着网贷公司与大金融机构的竞争会越来越多。

风投公司Canann Partners的合伙人丹·席珀林认为：“（业务）规模越来越成为竞争的关键壁垒，现在LendingClub和SoFi之类知名网贷公司同银行旗下产品服务的竞争激增，比如高盛旗下网贷平台Marcus。”另一风投公司General Catalyst Partners的合伙人斯宾塞·拉扎尔预计：“特朗普执政时期，美国消费者金融保护局（CFPB）可能改变政策，导致奥巴马当政时对非银行类贷款机构的监管规定开倒车，刺激贷款领域的初创公司成长，放贷的标准会大为降低。令人担心的是，利率可能伤害贷款者。”

亚马逊 VS 摩根大通

沃尔玛之类大型零售商早就希望进军银行业，也可能终于获得监管机构支持。一旦获准，亚马逊和Facebook就有可能成立银行等金融机构。假如真的挺进金融业，科技巨头会拥有一些银行无法比拟的优势，例如详实的数据、流畅的体验，以及忠诚的用户。

美国风投公司Union Square Ventures的合伙人安迪·威斯曼表示：“亚马逊、谷歌、Facebook、苹果等公司会进一步开拓小企业网贷领域。风投公司纪源资本的管理合伙人杰夫·理查兹说：“Facebook已通过旗下聊天功能Messenger推出了支付服务，与移动支付应用Square Cash和移动支付平台Venmo展开竞争，但还没有特别积极的行动。随着企业对电商领域加大投入，支付可能越来越成为焦点。”美国风投公司Spark Capital的合伙人杰瑞米·菲利普斯认为：“科技巨头原本行动迟缓，但现在正迅速转变，主要因为中国聊天应用结合支付的迅速发展令人艳羡。Facebook和苹果等公司将加倍努力，努力在美国复制中国同行的成功。”

并购

金融科技一些领域已经出现企业整合趋势，还有进一步整合的空间。随着金融科技业日趋成熟，贷款、支付、个人理财等领域可能发生一些并购。

美国风投公司Menlo Ventures董事泰勒·索辛预计：“Stripe和Adyen会合并成一家估值超过200亿美元的企业，基于应用程序接口（API）为商家处理支付需求。”英国风投公司Anthemis Group的首席投资官西恩·帕克表示：“我们认为，2018到2019年可能是（并购的）最佳时机，因为生态系统正走向成熟。在消费金融、个人理财和消费贷款领域与都可能出现大量并购。”美国风投公司Fifth Wall Ventures的管理合伙人布兰登·华莱士预计：“很多表现平平的网贷初创公司会倒闭，或者被大金融机构低价收购。”

资产管理

过去一年混合型投资方式出现，即人类专家与高科技支持的机器人投资顾问提供联合服务。大银行都在积极行动，摩根士丹利与摩根大通不约而同地宣布提供人机结合的投资顾问服务，以吸引年轻一代客户并提升用户体验。

各种新动向确实能帮初创公司进驻资管业，但华尔街机构也可能杀个回马枪，复制小公司的商业模式。华尔街大行也可能加入合作，共同对抗科技巨头。

美国风投公司DCM Ventures的董事凯尔·刘预计：“到2020年，数字技术投资顾问管理的资产将达到1万亿美元。传统银行也在觉醒，今后资产管理业务方面会将数字技术和机器人顾问产品作为开发消费战略的核心。”

融资

研究机构CB Insights数据显示，仅2017年第三季度，获得风险资本支持的金融科技公司就成功募集了40亿美元资金。若这一募资速度持续到2017年第四季度，全球金融科技企业的融资和交易规模可能双双创下记录。如果预测无误，哪些领域会最为吸金？

美国风投公司Andreessen Horowitz的合伙人亚历克斯·兰佩尔预计：“金融科技发展的第一阶段是出现‘拆分’银行，将大银行的某一项特色服务独立出来然后做得更细化。下一个阶段是‘重组’，在第一阶段基础上增加其他服务和跨领域销售的产品（如SoFi以贷款起家，此后增加理财和保险服务）。风险资本会流入成功进入重组阶段的初创公司。”美国风投公司Bessemer Venture Partners的合伙人查尔斯·比尔恩鲍姆认为：“我们认为，过去五年市场对替代性贷款领域的估值过于乐观。但我们也认为，回调之后市场的估值又调整得过低，所以这个领域融资或者并购的时机可能已经成熟。”(财富中文网）

译者：Pessy

审校：夏林

What to look for in 2018? Maybe more mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings and deeper forays by Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook Inc. Here’s a wrap from industry experts:

Payments

In the world of payments, all eyes are on the part of the ecosystem that helps retailers process card transactions. Incumbents like First Data Corp., Vantiv Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s merchant services unit have long focused on winning business from large brick-and-mortar retailers, neglecting to spend a lot of time on the growing e-commerce sector. That’s made room for startups like Stripe Inc. and Adyen BV, which have garnered high valuations for doing just that. Now the questions are: What will be the next way that consumers make purchases and what will the incumbents do to catch up?

Matt Harris, Bain Capital Ventures: “SoftBank buys 20 percent of Stripe for $3 billion. PayPal continues to push itself down the path of being the leading financial services company for millennials and the mass market.” Dion Lisle, Capgemini SA: “‘Alexa, buy this’ or ‘Siri, I need an Uber, pay for it with my AmEx.’ Payments are going to be activated by that voice because that’s a great security method.”

Lending

For investors in online lending, 2017 was the year of the shakeout. The companies that didn’t pay enough attention to underwriting were burned by losses, while longtime leaders like LendingClub Corp. and CAN Capital Inc. struggled with operational troubles and securing sufficient capital. Next year might not be any easier, according to experts. Banks have finally gotten their act together, and that means online lenders will increasingly have to compete against these large financial institutions.

Dan Ciporin, Canann Partners: “Scale is increasingly a competitive moat, with established players like LendingClub and SoFi now competing much more with bank offerings like Marcus from Goldman Sachs.” Spencer Lazar, General Catalyst Partners: “Potential changes to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) under the Trump Administration will likely turn back the clock on Obama-era regulations on non-bank lenders. This will be a boon to startup lenders, making it far easier to dole out capital. The fear is that rates could potentially become predatory.”

Amazon vs. JPMorgan

Retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. have long wanted in on banking, and regulators might finally be on their side. That could open the door to a Bank of Amazon or a Facebook Financial. If these technology giants did decide to move into finance, they would have a few major advantages over the banks: better data, a superior user experience and immense customer loyalty.

Andy Weissman, Union Square Ventures: “Some combination of Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple, etc. will move deeper into online financing of small businesses.” Jeff Richards, GGV Capital: “Facebook has rolled out payments via Messenger to compete with Square Cash and Venmo, but hasn’t been super aggressive on this front. A ramped up effort in e-commerce could tie into an increased focus on payments.” Jeremy Philips, Spark Capital: “The tech behemoths have been slow-ish but that’s changing quickly driven largely by Chinese chat/payments envy. Facebook and Apple and others will double down on trying to replicate this in the US.”

M&A

While some areas of fintech have seen consolidation, there’s still room for more. The maturing sector could see some combinations in areas such as lending, payments, personal financial managers and more.

Tyler Sosin, Menlo Ventures: “Stripe and Adyen will merge, forming a $20 billion plus enterprise-value business and API-driven merchant processor.” Sean Park, Anthemis Group: “We think 2018-2019 might be the sweet spot for this since it’s part of a maturing ecosystem. In consumer finance, personal financial management and consumer lending, both could see a lot of combinations.” Brendan Wallace, Fifth Wall Ventures: “Many generic online lending startups will fail or be acquired by large financial institutions at discount valuations.’’

Asset Management

The past 12 months have seen new hybrid versions of investing, pairing humans with the technology backing robo-advisers. Large banks are making moves, with Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan each announcing robo-adviser versions as a way to attract younger generations and create better user experiences.

While these moves add legitimacy to the startups, Wall Street could also simply turn around and duplicate them. Or, the banks could decide to partner with them as a way to beat the tech giants?

Kyle Lui, DCM Ventures: “Digital advice assets under management is estimated to hit $1 trillion by 2020. Traditional banks are waking up to this trend and viewing digital and robo-advisory products as a core part of their consumer growth strategy within asset management.” Alois Pirker, Aite Group: “For startups in wealth management, it’s getting tough to differentiate yourself. I think you increasingly get beat with your own weapons since big firms can do this in greater varieties and have clients on board already.”

Funding

Venture capital-backed fintech companies raised $4 billion in the third quarter of 2017 alone, according to CB Insights. If the year’s current run rate holds steady in the last quarter, global fintech investment dollars and deal activity could hit records. And if that pans out, which areas should be seeing the most funding?

Alex Rampell, Andreessen Horowitz: “The first phase of fintech was ‘unbundling’ banks — taking one of the features of a mega-bank, and doing it better. The next phase is rebundling — adding other services, and cross-selling products (like SoFi starting in lending and later adding wealth and insurance). Venture capital will flow to successful startups moving into their second act of rebundling.” Charles Birnbaum, Bessemer Venture Partners: “Valuations in the alternative-lending space were overly optimistic in our opinion over the prior five years, but we do feel that the pendulum has likely swung back too far in the other direction following the recent pullback” leaving the sector ripe for potential funding or M&A.