特斯拉为何未能按时实现Model 3产量目标
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特斯拉在第四季度生产了2425辆Model 3电动汽车，交付了1550辆。由于埃隆·马斯克试图解决生产瓶颈问题，第四季度的量产未能达到华尔街的预期，同时特斯拉再次推迟了此前制定的量产目标。 不同机构对Model 3交付的预测差异很大。奥本海默（Oppenheimer）的分析师柯林·鲁奇预计特斯拉仅能交付800辆，但乐通公司（Cowen & Co.）的杰弗里·奥斯本预计有2250辆，永核（Evercore）的分析师甚至预计交付高达5800辆。根据彭博新闻社（Bloomberg News）的调查数据，分析师预计Model 3的平均交付量为2900辆。 特斯拉之前宣称其已经突破Model 3的生产瓶颈，取得“重大进展”。而现在特斯拉不得不将Model 3达到每周5000辆的生产量目标推迟到第二季度末。每周生产量达到5000辆对于特斯拉是一个重大目标，然而这已经是特斯拉第二次推迟这一目标的实现了。在交易后时段，特斯拉的股票下跌了1.65%。 特斯拉认为，在2018年第一季度，其将有一个更稳定的增长，“专注于质量和效率，而非仅仅在最短的时间内尽可能地提高产量。”特斯拉在第一季度末Model 3每周的生产量将达到2500辆。特斯拉在发布的报告中称，“我们打算在第二季度结束前实现每周5000辆的目标。” 有证据表明，最近的增长并非如此缓慢，或者某些瓶颈已经被消除，导致产量突然增加。根据特斯拉的数据，在第四季度生产的2425辆Model 3中，有793辆（接近33%）是在这一季度的最后7个工作日生产的。 “由于产量大幅增长，自12月9日以来，我们生产了很多Model 3，与我们过去四个多月生产的一样多，”特斯拉这样表示，同时解释这也是其之所以未能在第四季度结束前的圣诞季交付大量Model 3汽车的原因。 特斯拉表示，它在第四季度减少了Model S和Model X的生产，以使更多的工人加入Model 3的量产中。 汽车贸易（Autotrader）的执行分析师米歇尔·克雷布斯在一封电子邮件中表示：“如果没有宣布如此宏伟的生产计划，特斯拉将会提供更好的服务。该公司已经表示，专注于质量和效率，这是正确的做法。在质量上，Model3必须是完美的，生产有缺陷的产品来提高生产水平是愚蠢之举。” 特斯拉2017年Q4生产量： • 总产量：24565辆 • Model S 和X （特斯拉把这两款车型的生产量放在一起）：22140 • Model 3：2425 尽管特斯拉在Model 3的生产上屡遭“不顺”，但它还是成功比上个季度交付了更多Model X、Model S和Model 3车型。这也使得特斯拉超额完成了2017年10万辆车的销售目标。特斯拉称，其在2017年交付了101312辆Model S和Model X，比2016年增加了33%。 特斯拉2017年第四季度交付了29870辆汽车，比2016年同季度增长了27%，比2017年第三季度增长了9%。 特斯拉2017年Q4交付量： • 总交付量：29870辆 • Model S：15200 • Model X：13120 • Model 3：1550 特斯拉表示，在2017年第四季度末，另有2520辆Model S和X型车以及860辆Model 3型车正处于交付阶段。这些车会一并计入2018年第一季度的交付量中。（财富中文网） 译者：陈亚芬/汪皓 |
Tesla produced 2,425 of its new Model 3 electric cars in the fourth quarter and delivered 1,550, missing Wall Street expectations as the company led by Elon Musk tries to solve production bottlenecks that have forced the company to dial back its own mass manufacturing goals. Estimates for Model 3 deliveries varied wildly, coming in as low as 800 from Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer all the way up to 2,250 from Jeffrey Osborne of Cowen & Co., and about 5,800 from analysts at Evercore. Analysts’ average estimate for the model 3 deliveries was about 2,900 units, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Despite making “major progress” addressing Model 3 production bottlenecks, the company has pushed back its target of producing 5,000 Model 3 sedans per week to the end of the second quarter. This is the second time Tesla has punted on its 5,000-per-week milestone. Shares were down 1.65% in after-hours trading. Tesla said it will have a more gradual ramp through the first quarter “to focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time.” The company will likely end the first quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles. “We intend to achieve the 5,000 per week milestone by the end of Q2,” Tesla said in its report. There is some evidence that the ramp up lately has not been so gradual, or that perhaps some bottlenecks have been removed, causing a sudden increase in production. Of the 2,425 Model 3 vehicles produced in the fourth quarter, 793 of them (or nearly 33%) were made in the last seven working days of the quarter, according to Tesla. “As a result of the significant growth in our production rate, we made as many Model 3’s since Dec. 9 as we did in the more than four months of Model 3 production up to that point,” Tesla said, explaining that this is why it wasn’t able to deliver many of these cars during the holiday season, just before the quarter ended. Tesla said it reduced production of its Model S and Model X in the fourth quarter to put more of its workers on the Model 3. “Tesla would have been better served had it not announced such lofty plans for its production ramp-up,” Michelle Krebs, executive analyst for Autotrader said in an email. “The company has now said it is focused on quality versus volume, which is the right focus. The Model 3 must be right in terms of quality. Ramping up production levels with a flawed product is foolish.” Here’s a quick production breakdown for Q4: • Total: 24,565 vehicles • Model S and X (the company didn’t break these out): 22,140 • Model 3: 2,425 • Model 3：2425 Despite continued headwinds with the Model 3, Tesla did manage to deliver more of its Model X, Model S, and Model 3 vehicles than in previous quarters. It also surpassed its 100,000-vehicle goal for 2017. Tesla reported it delivered 101,312 Model S and X vehicles in 2017, a 33% increase over 2016. Tesla delivered 29,870 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a 27% increase over the same quarter in 2016 and 9% more than the third quarter. Here’s a quick delivery breakdown for Q4: • Total: 29,870 vehicles • Model S:15,200 • Model S：15200 • Model X: 13,120 • Model X：13120 • Model 3: 1,550 • Model 3：1550 The company said another 2,520 Model S and X vehicles and 860 Model 3 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q1 2018, Tesla said. |
