油价在2018年能涨多少，取决于这五种人

2018年的国际石油市场将何去何从？沙特和俄罗斯是否将继续保持原油产量的话语权？抑或美国页岩气产量的激增将再次搅局？一主要产油国的经济崩溃是否会导致原油价格飙升？又或者硅谷的科技创新将标志着内燃机引擎时代的终结？

虽然油价在2017年年末达到近两年来的新高，但今年的石油价格却存在很大的不确定性，而下面这五种人对油价走向或将起到至关重要的作用。

OPEC的“话事人”

沙特能源工业部部长法利赫将迎来关键的一年。2016年，沙特的产油政策在他的领导下改弦易辙，石油输出国组织也做出了近八年来首次削减产能的决定。在这位沙特阿美石油公司前董事长的推动下，OPEC的削减产能政策还将延长到2018年年末，这也使得2017年年终的国际油价再次冲到高位。

现在法利赫要做的，是确保OPEC的其他成员国按照承诺削减产能，继续与俄罗斯订立攻守同盟，同时寄希望于油价继续高位运行，以确保沙特阿美石油公司成功IPO，同时又不至于刺激得美国再度大幅提高页岩气产量。

普京的石油大亨

曾几何时，OPEC观察家们对沙特官方的每一句发言都要颠来倒去地分析，不过他们现在更关注的是一个甚至都不是OPEC成员国的国家。去年OPEC的削减产能战略之所以取得成功，与俄罗斯在OPEC这一战略上的同进退有很大关系。

因此，国际原油市场开始高度关注俄罗斯能源部长亚历山大·诺瓦克的一言一行。今年46岁的诺瓦克与沙特能源工业部部长法利赫私交匪浅，因此两国才能搁置多年来的相互猜忌，就石油减产问题签订历史性的合作协议。就连花旗银行也称他们两人是“兄弟情深”。不过诺瓦克是否会屈从于俄相关企业的压力提前结束减产，还需要现实来证明。

页岩气先锋

美国页岩气产量的增长幅度或将成为2018年国际石油市场的最大变量。目前业界对美国2018年页岩气产量增幅的预测莫衷一是，从每天70万桶到每天100万桶，各种说法都有，取决于你问的是谁。目前处于行业领先地位的是德州的二叠纪公司（Permian），而先锋自然资源公司（Pioneer Natural Resources Co）则是拥有页岩气田面积最大的公司之一。

该公司CEO蒂姆·达夫认为，页岩气在未来很多年都将是美国能源的“生命线”，据他预测，美国页岩气的日均产量将从现在的285万桶增长到330万桶，不过这也并不是件容易的事。该公司2017年下半年的业绩未达到标普能源指数的预期，这或许也是由于投资者对页岩气行业整体失去耐心的缘故。不过根据彭博新能源金融公司的调查，该公司到今年三季度前的70%的产量都已提前锁定了买家，所以依然是一股不容小觑的力量。

拉美强人

面临美国经济制裁、大笔债款到期付款、原油产量减少等紧迫问题，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗今年要解决的问题真不少。马杜罗以掀起“新石油革命”为口号，任命了一位军队将领作为国家石油产业负责人，并对委瑞内拉国家石油公司的高官进行了大范围清洗，其中甚至包括两位前部长级高官。

由于原油产量下降，委内瑞拉的经济危机有愈演愈烈之热。其原油日均产能已从2001年的300多万桶下降至去年11月的186万桶。据咨询机构雷斯塔德能源公司预测，2018年，委内瑞拉部分油田的产能可能将下跌30%左右。而这将使委内瑞拉的石油产量远低于OPEC的目标产量，这意味着国际原油市场的供给或许将比OPEC的意图更加紧张。

科技巨星

可回收火箭和火星殖民这些噱头使得埃隆·马斯克早已成了科技爱好者的追捧对象。但到了2018年，石油市场或许也将不得不重视起这个名字。马斯克希望在今年四月前实现每月量产5000辆价格较亲民的Model 3电动汽车的目标。这标志着电池动力汽车将迎来一个重大突破，电动汽车终于将从“有钱人的玩具”走进千家万户。

如果马斯克成功了，市场当然会认为电动汽车将以比之前预期得更快的速度取代内燃机引擎。就连OPEC组织也承认，如果电池动力汽车成为主流，则石油消费必将在未来几十年走向萧条。不过目前，特斯拉自身也存在不少问题，让石油业者暂时可以松一口气——比如特斯拉的烧钱速度之快令人咂舌，平均每分钟就要烧掉8000美元。另外Model 3的量产速度也不会太快。预计今年第3季度，能拿到市面上发售Model 3也只有260台而已。(财富中文网)

译者：朴成奎

Will Saudi Arabia and Russia maintain their grip on production, or could they succumb to another surge in U.S. shale? Is it possible for the economic collapse of a major producer to send crude prices soaring, or perhaps Silicon Valley will usher in the end of the combustion engine?

After ending 2017 at a two-year high, oil prices could go either way this year, and these five individuals could play defining roles.

The OPEC Kingpin

Saudi Minister of Energy and Industry Khalid Al-Falih is facing a crucial 12 months. Having defied skeptics in 2016 by reversing the kingdom’s strategy and sealing the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ first output cut in eight years, the former chairman of Aramco finished last year on another high after securing a deal to extend the curbs to the end of 2018.

Now all Al-Falih has to do is ensure fellow members maintain their pledged cuts, keep Russia invested in the deal, and hope oil prices are high enough to ensure a successful initial public offering of Aramco without spurring another wave of U.S. shale. Simple.

Putin’s Oil Man

If OPEC-watchers once fixated exclusively on every word of Saudi Arabia, they now obsess over a country that isn’t even part of the cartel. Russia’s decision last year to join OPEC in cutting oil production, after years of keeping its distance, has been critical in the success of the strategy.

Consequently, crude traders are just as likely to pore over the statements of Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak as of his Saudi counterpart. Novak, 46, has developed a clear personal bond with Al-Falih, helping the two countries to set aside years of mutual distrust and seal a historic cooperation agreement. Their partnership has been so strong that Citigroup Inc. calls it a “ bromance,” but it may be tested by pressure from Russian companies pushing for an early end to the cuts.

The Shale Pioneer

Growth in U.S. shale output is the biggest wild card for 2018, with estimates from 700,000 barrels a day to more than 1 million, depending on who you ask. At the center of the industry is the Permian in Texas, and Pioneer Natural Resources Co. is one of the biggest acreage holders in the basin.

Its CEO Tim Dove sees the area as the “lifeblood” of U.S. production for many years, forecasting production there will rise to 3.3 million barrels a day this year from about 2.85 million currently. But it’s not all plain sailing. The company underperformed the S&P Energy index in the second half of 2017, possibly a victim of investors losing patience with the shale industry as a whole. Still, the company had already locked in selling prices for more than 70 percent of 2018 production as of the third quarter, according to a Bloomberg New Energy Finance survey.

The Latin Strongman

Crippling U.S. sanctions, overdue bond payments and dwindling crude production: Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro has a lot on his plate heading into 2018. Promising a “new oil revolution,” the increasingly authoritarian leader named a military general as the nation’s chief oil supremo and embarked on a wide-reaching purge of officials at state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, including two former petroleum ministers.

The Latin American nation’s economic crisis has been worsened by dwindling crude output, which fell to 1.86 million barrels a day in November from more than 3 million in 2001. In 2018, the consultant Rystad Energy estimates some crude fields could decline by as much as 30 percent. That would put Venezuela’s output well below its OPEC target, meaning the market could be tighter than the group intends.

The Tech Rockstar

Re-usable rockets and dreams of launching manned flights to Mars have long made Elon Musk a famous name for tech enthusiasts, but 2018 could be the year the oil market really takes notice. The six-foot-two South African entrepreneur hopes that 5,000 units of Tesla Inc.’s new lower-cost Model 3 electric car will roll off the assembly line every week by April. That would be a breakthrough for battery-powered vehicles, bringing what has been a luxury technology to the mass market.

If Musk succeeds, it will surely stoke speculation that electric cars will displace the internal combustion engine faster than expected. Even OPEC has conceded that oil consumption could stagnate in coming decades if battery-powered vehicles go mainstream. For now, oil bulls can take comfort in Tesla’s teething troubles — it’s burning through $8,000 a minute and Model 3 deliveries during the third quarter numbered just 260.