世界经济论坛发布《2018年全球风险报告》

上周三，世界经济论坛发布了一份内容广泛的报告。报告显示，2018年，一系列安全、金融和环境威胁，将在全球带来最大的商业风险。其中对于美国公司而言最突出的两个风险是针对网络攻击的保护措施不充分和气候变化引发的潜在环境灾难。

世界经济论坛最新发布的《全球风险报告》（Global Risks Report）共80页，其中阐述了全球企业所面临的风险。报告的编制得到了全球商界、政府、学术界和其他利益相关者的协助。这些风险涵盖了政府倒台、糟糕的城市规划、传染疾病的传播和基础设施故障等各个方面。

但2018年风险报告的主要结论之一是，环境灾害和数字犯罪，包括网络窃贼造成的数据泄露以及针对国家安全机构的攻击等等，是最有可能发生的两种风险，并且将对企业造成最大的影响。例如，在发生概率和总体影响方面，有三种环境相关风险排在前五位；网络攻击和数据泄露排在最有可能发生的前五大风险之列，而网络攻击在影响力方面排在了第六位。

A slew of security, financial, and environmental threats will pose the greatest risk to businesses around the world in 2018, according to a wide-ranging report from the World Economic Forum (WEF) unveiled Wednesday ahead of the organization’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland next week. And two of the most prominent risks for American businesses, specifically, will be inadequate protections against cyberattacks and the potential environmental disasters stemming from climate change.

WEF’s new Global Risks Report is an 80-page compilation of risks to global business compiled with the help of business, government, academic, and other stakeholder around the world. These hazards span the gamut from the collapse of governments to poor urban planning to the spread of infectious diseases to infrastructure failures.

But one of the main takeaways from the 2018 Risks report is that a combination of environmental havoc and digital delinquency—from data breaches by online thieves to targeted attacks on nations’ security apparatuses—will be both the likeliest risks to businesses and the ones that have the biggest impact on them. Three of the top five largest risks in terms of both likelihood and overall impact are related to the environment, for instance; cyberattacks and data breaches rank in the top five most likely risks while cyberattacks fall just outside the top five when it comes to impact.

五种环境类风险在过去10年的风险报告当中，排名持续上升。报告的作者表示：“去年的特点是高强度的飓风、极端气温和二氧化碳排放量在四年内首次增多。我们正在把我们的地球推向毁灭的边缘，环境破坏变得越来越明显。”

他们特别提到了美国的飓风和其他极端气候事件造成的破坏，科学家认为这些事件均与气候变化有关，例如美国去年破纪录的夏季和冬季风暴。这些连锁事件会对人类生活造成直接影响，在短期内破坏本地商业，摧毁基础设施，可能令地方经济在数年内难以恢复元气。到目前为止，美国2017年的大西洋飓风季造成了史上最大的经济损失。

All five of the risks listed in the environmental category have steadily risen in the past 10 years of the Risks report. “This follows a year characterized by high-impact hurricanes, extreme temperatures and the first rise in CO2 emissions for four years. We have been pushing our planet to the brink and the damage is becoming increasingly clear,” write the authors.

They point specifically to the destruction by hurricanes and other extreme weather events in the U.S. that scientists say are linked with climate change, such as America’s record-breaking summer and winter storms in the past year. Such cascading events take an immediate toll on human life, disrupt local businesses in the short term, and can devastate local economies for years by destroying infrastructure. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season in the U.S. was the costliest one to date.

美国公司要想整顿内部数字IT设施，还有很长的路要走，尤其是支持反网络攻击技术，确保所有员工了解防止数据被盗的最佳实践等等。报告的作者写道：“公司董事会和高管往往把风险分析看作是一项在清单上打钩的独立活动，并没有采取措施减缓分析当中发现的风险。所有机构必须加大培训，提高团队的风险意识。想象一下这样的情况：因为高管没有在组织内传播风险意识，导致一名员工不经意间点击了一封网络钓鱼邮件，结果打乱了公司的网络安全计划。”例如：仅2017年，美国就发生了多起引起世人关注的数据被盗事件，原因正是员工遭遇了网络钓鱼诈骗。世界经济论坛还指出，错误信息和“虚假新闻”在社交媒体上的传播也会扰乱市场。

完整报告详细阐述了这些风险。例如：世界经济论坛认为许多国家民粹主义浪潮的兴起和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的“美国优先”政策，也是公司面临的不稳定因素，可能产生意想不到的下游效应。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓 

American business also has a long way to go in getting its digital IT house in order—particularly by shoring up anti-cyberattack technology and making sure all employees know the best practices for preventing data breaches. “Too often boards and C-suites approach risk analysis as a standalone activity to be ticked off a list, but then fall short on mitigating the risks that their analysis has identified,” write the authors. “Organizations must do better in educating teams on risk awareness. Think of an employee derailing cybersecurity plans by inadvertently clicking on a phishing email because not enough was done to spread risk awareness from the C-suite to the wider organization.” Consider: There were several high profile U.S. data breaches in 2017 alone because employees fell victim to phishing scams. The spread of misinformation and “fake news” via social media can also roil markets, as WEF points out.

The full report goes into far more detail about these, and many other, risks. (For instance: WEF cites the rise of populist anger in many nations and President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies as volatile elements for business that could have unexpected downstream effects.) Click here to read the complete writeup.