IMF：这个国家今年通胀将达13000%

国际货币基金组织预计，今年委内瑞拉的通胀将飙升至13000%，原因是这个陷入危机的国家为了弥补财政赤字而增发货币以及对其货币的信心丧失殆尽。

这个数字比IMF此前的预期高了五倍以上，也远远超出彭博调查中经济学家的预测中值。IMF西半球事务部主管亚历杭德罗·维尔纳上周四发表的报告称，IMF估算2017年委内瑞拉物价涨幅超过2400%，居全球首位。

压在委内瑞拉头上的除了恶性通胀，还有因为多年管理不善和石油出口不畅造成的长期衰退。为遏制通胀，总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗领导的政府一直拒绝放松外汇管制和物价封顶措施，这进一步加剧了所有商品的短缺程度，从食物到药品都是如此。

IMF预计，今年委内瑞拉经济将下跌15%，从而使2013年以来的下滑幅度达到近50%。这拖累了整个拉美地区的经济反弹——今年拉美经济预测增幅为1.9%，不包括委内瑞拉则将达到2.5%。维尔纳在报告出炉后的新闻发布会上说，虽然委内瑞拉拉低了地区平均水平，但目前对邻国的影响“非常有限”。

报告指出，墨西哥、中美洲和部分加勒比国家将受益于美国经济的加速增长，南美的前景也有好转，原因是巴西和阿根廷摆脱衰退以及该地区出口的原材料价格上涨。

维尔纳写道：“世界经济和金融市场近期走势对拉美来说是个好消息。全球增长和贸易呈上升态势，而且我们预计其势头将延续到2018年。大宗商品价格上升有助于该地区经济复苏。”

维尔纳说，厄瓜多尔走出衰退的速度超过预期，这得益于原油价格上升和更容易进入金融市场。IMF将厄瓜多尔2018年GDP预测增幅从此前的0.6%大幅提升至2.2%。该机构还调高了智利经济增速，原因是铜价上涨和商业信心增强使经济加速增长势头延续到了2018年。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审稿：夏林

The International Monetary Fund sees Venezuelan inflation spiraling to 13,000 percent this year, as the crisis-torn nation prints money to tackle fiscal deficits and confidence in its currency evaporates.

That’s more than five times the inflation previously projected by the IMF, and way above the median forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The fund estimates price increases surpassed 2,400 percent last year, according to a report published Thursday by Alejandro Werner, head of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere department. That was the fastest in the world.

Venezuela has succumbed to hyperinflation combined with a prolonged recession stemming from years of mismanagement as well as faltering oil exports. In an attempt to rein in inflation, the government of President Nicolas Maduro has refused to loosen foreign-exchange controls and price caps that have exacerbated the short supply of all sorts of products, from food to medicine.

The IMF expects the Venezuelan economy to contract 15 percent this year, leading to a cumulative GDP decline of nearly 50 percent since 2013. That’s holding back the rebound of the entire region; Latin America is expected to grow 1.9 percent this year, or 2.5 percent without Venezuela. While Venezuela suppresses the regional average, at this point the impact on its neighbors’ output is “very limited,” Werner said in a press conference following the report’s release.

Mexico, Central America and parts of the Caribbean will benefit from stronger US growth, while South America’s prospects have improved due to the end of recessions in Brazil and Argentina, as well as higher prices for the raw materials the region exports, according to the report.

“Recent trends in the world economy and financial markets are good news for Latin America,” Werner wrote. “Global growth and trade are on an upswing, and we expect the momentum to continue in 2018. Stronger commodity prices have also helped the region rebound.”

Ecuador also came out of its recession at a faster-than-expected pace, due to higher oil prices and greater access to financial markets, Werner said. The IMF significantly boosted its 2018 GDP outlook for the nation to 2.2 percent, from 0.6 percent previously. The multilateral also gave a boost to its Chile growth estimates, citing faster momentum carrying over into 2018 amid higher copper prices and improving business sentiment.