美国银行怎么才能赶上摩根大通

差不多三年前，美国银行首席执行官布莱恩·莫伊尼罕披露了糟糕的全年业绩。这位陷入困境的CEO宣布，2014年美银仅实现净利润48亿美元，是赚了200多亿美元的摩根大通和富国银行的五分之一。和规模小得多的竞争对手花旗集团相比，其业绩也只有花旗的三分之二。罚款和抵押贷款坏账带来的巨大负担，以及每年为此花费的数十亿美元，让越来越多的人怀疑美银能否真的再次站稳脚跟。

落后的股价和估值体现了这些沉重顾虑。2015年初，美银的股价跌至15美元左右，市值1600亿美元，几乎比华尔街宠儿富国银行少1000亿。

但接下来美银的情况出现了惊人逆转，美国大银行的排名也发生了重大变化。1月17日，莫伊尼罕宣布美银2017年利润为210亿美元（不包括新联邦税法带来的29亿美元支出）。这超过了富国银行的188.5亿美元（不包括一大笔税收收益），更不用说花旗的150亿美元了（不包括一笔重大税收损失）。美银的股价也升至32美元，和2015年的黑暗日子相比上涨了一倍多，从而推动美银的市值达到3310亿美元，超越了花旗（2070亿），也将富国银行甩在身后——大家都知道，代价昂贵的消费业务丑闻一直困扰着富国银行。

虽然有了引人注目的复苏，但美银仍落后于行业龙头摩根大通，后者2017年实现税前利润269亿美元，比美银高22%。杰米·戴蒙领导的这家公司在市值上也处于领先位置，3940亿美元的规模仍比美银高19%，只是领先幅度略有下降。

那么，如今出现了一种可能，那就是闷声不响的美银能否超过强大的摩根大通？这在2015年初还显得不可思议。

的确，如果美银能保持当前的势头，如果莫伊尼罕绝不偏离自己的低风险、高度集中路线，美银至少就能获得和摩根大通一样强的盈利能力。摩根大通和美银都有规模巨大的消费银行业务。在公司业务方面，摩根大通的销售额以及为企业客户做的交易规模较高，美银则通过美林在经纪业务上走在了前面。对美银来说，要将回报率提高到摩根大通的水平，动力就在于做大这项支柱业务，提升宝贵的企业银行业务规模。

莫伊尼罕相信老式银行业务，也就是吸纳低成本存款，然后将这些资金贷给忠实的客户，是世界上最棒的生意之一，而且他也在证明这一点。以下就是美银有潜力和摩根大通并驾齐驱的原因：

莫伊尼罕是经营杠杆大师，而这正是提升利润的最关键因素

获得经营杠杆的途径是让收入增速一直高于成本，这样利润就比收入增长的快。这是给利润注入“兴奋剂”的方程式。实际上，莫伊尼罕让美银渡过难关的办法就是削减成本，使其降幅足以弥补收入的滑坡。从2015年第一季度到2016年第一季度，美银的收入下跌了3%，但莫伊尼罕设法让这期间的成本降幅达到15%，远远超过收入下滑的速度。然后，在2016年第二季度，美银的策略从损失管控转向大幅进步。收入在此开始增长，莫伊尼罕也定下了每个季度都压低成本的目标，而不仅仅是维持现状。他承诺，将在2018年以前使非利息支出水平降至530亿美元。

莫伊尼罕实现了目标，2017年也成为展示经营杠杆魔力的经典案例。美银全年收入增加37亿美元，或5%左右，达到874亿；支出减少1%或3.40亿美元，降至547亿。由于收入超过支出，前者温和增长再加上后者基本持平推高了利润，使之从170亿美元增至210亿，增幅为17%。

在业绩电话会议上，莫伊尼罕承诺将把成本保持在530亿美元，也就是说，他预计剔除通胀因素后的总支出每年将减少1-2%。

美银拥有美国最大的消费银行业务

美银最大的业务是横跨美国的分支网络，数千万消费者在这些分支机构开立普通支票账户和活期储蓄账户，它们几乎占美银总收入的40%。2017年，随着美银吸引来了各种各样的消费者，它的消费银行业务迅速增长，存款上升了8%，借贷增加了9%。收入提高了28亿美元或8.8%，达到345亿。同时，经营杠杆再次让利润增速远远超过收入。基本不变的开支和近9%的收入增长使利润上升14%，从72亿美元增至82亿，从而使消费银行业务成为美银最大的赚钱机器。

2017年完美诠释了美银要怎样赶上摩根大通——经营杠杆推动利润实现两位数增长，而收入增速只是利润的一半。

美银最棒的资产：低成本存款

美银最大股东沃伦·巴菲特频繁称赞“大量有粘性存款”的价值。美银拥有存款6650亿美元，可以用来发放抵押贷款、汽车以及信用卡贷款。这些存款的平均利率为0.04%。包括间接费用和庞大分支网络的运营成本在内，总成本为6.65亿美元，占存款的1.61%。抵押贷款、房屋净值贷款、汽车以及信用卡贷款的平均利率约为10%，这给美银带来了8.74%的利润率。同时，违约水平接近几十年来的最低点。

莫伊尼罕的策略：别搞砸一件好事

得益于良好的信贷质量和充满活力的经济，美银及其对手在过去很长一段时间里都拥有强大的盈利能力。但就像莫伊尼罕指出的那样，他们普遍把鼎盛时期积累的巨额利润浪费在了开展低质量、低利润率业务上，而且发放了过多有风险的贷款。莫伊尼罕信誓旦旦地说，美银已经吸取了过去的教训，今后将把自己充分了解并信任的、非常可靠的消费者作为主要贷款对象。

到目前为止，莫伊尼罕一直遵循着自己的计划，就像盖在信封上的邮戳一样严丝合缝。两年前，美银设定的有形权益回报率目标是12%，资产回报率目标为1%。现在，第一个指标已经达到11%，第二个目标也完成了90%以上。仅有形权益回报率升至12%一项就可将美银的净利润几乎提高230亿美元，比摩根大通少40亿。此外，在第四季度业绩电话会议上，莫伊尼罕轻松愉快的态度表明他才刚刚开始施展拳脚。他表示，通过把公司贷款利率从29%降至略高于20%的水平，美银仅靠新税法就能远远超越上述指标。

实际上，莫伊尼罕仍在追赶戴蒙。摩根大通避开了抵押贷款行业一片繁荣时形成的陷阱，而且一直在为未来投资；美银则通过收缩规模生存了下来。现在，莫伊尼罕也进入了扩张模式，而且他对经营杠杆的熟练运用再次把适度而谨慎的发展方案变成了强大的利润增长引擎。

莫伊尼罕还说，他决心让美银的业绩远远超过那些曾经显得过高的目标。他已经让美银从落水狗变成了竞争参与者。现在，他正在设法让美银成为最优秀的银行。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie 

Around this time three years ago, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan unveiled the final numbers for a dreadful year. The beleaguered CEO announced that B of A had posted just $4.8 billion in net earnings for 2014, around one-fifth the $20-billion-plus bounty at J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo, and two-thirds of the profits for much smaller rival Citigroup. The gigantic burden from penalties and losses on bad mortgages, and the billions spent annually on servicing that stricken portfolio, spread doubt whether B of A could ever regain its footing.

Its lagging stock price and valuation reflected those deep misgivings. In early 2015, B of A’s stock was mired around $15, and its $160 billion market cap lagged that of Wall Street darling Wells by almost $100 billion.

What’s happened since marks an astounding reversal of form for B of A, and a major reshuffling of the hierarchy of America’s biggest banks. On January 17, Moynihan announced that B of A earned $21 billion in 2017 (excluding a $2.9 charge due to the new federal tax law). B of A bested Wells ($18.85 billion, excluding a large tax gain), not to mention Citi ($15 billion, excluding a big tax loss). And B of A’s shares have more than doubled to $32 since the dark days of early 2015, lifting its market cap to $331, dwarfing Citi ($207 billion) and surpassing Wells, which has been famously plagued by costly scandals in its consumer business.

Despite its impressive comeback, B of A still trails the champ, J.P. Morgan, whose 2017 (pre-tax charge) profits of $26.9 billion beat B of A by 22%. Jamie Dimon’s franchise also leads in market cap at $394 billion, maintaining a slightly lower, 19% edge.

So today, a possibility arises that would have seemed unthinkable in early 2015: Can the plodder, B of A, overtake mighty J.P. Morgan?

Indeed, if B of A can remain on its current trajectory—and Moynihan never deviates from his low-risk, highly focused course—B of A can at least match J.P. Morgan’s immense profitability. Both J.P. Morgan and B of A run gigantic consumer banking franchises. On the corporate side, J.P. is bigger in sales and trading for corporate customers, and B of A leads in brokerage through its Merrill franchise. For B of A, the engine in raising returns to J.P Morgan levels will be expanding that bedrock, increasingly golden branch banking business.

Moynihan believes that old fashioned banking, consisting of gathering low-cost deposits and lending that money back to loyal customers, is one of the world’s great businesses. And he’s proving it. Here are the reasons why B of A has the potential to run shoulder-to-shoulder with J.P. Morgan.

MOYNIHAN IS A MASTER OF WHAT COUNTS MOST FOR LIFTING PROFITS: OPERATING LEVERAGE

Operating leverage is achieved by consistently growing revenues faster than costs, so that earnings outrace the top line. It’s a formula for putting profits on steroids. In effect, Moynihan saved B of A in the tough times by slashing costs to more than compensate for flagging revenues. From Q1 of 2015 to Q1 of 2016, B of A’s revenues were declining 3% on a year-over-year basis. But Moynihan managed to lower expenses far more in that period, by around 15% a year. Then, in Q2 of 2016, the strategy evolved from damage control to major progress. Revenues started growing once again, and Moynihan set the goal of not just freezing, but lowering cost every quarter, promising to reach a “run rate” of $53 billion in non-interest expenses by 2018.

He’s made it—and 2017 is a case study in the magic of operating leverage. For the year, revenues rose $3.7 billion or around 5% to $87.4 billion. Expenses declined 1% or $340 million to $54.7 billion. Since revenues are a bigger number than expenses, the combination of a modestly growing top line and flat expenses stoked profits, which rose from $17.0 to $21 billion, a 17% increase.

On the earnings conference call, Moynihan pledged to keep the cost line flat at $53 billion, meaning the he expects total expenses to fall by a point or two a year adjusted for inflation.

B OF A BOASTS AMERICA’S BIGGEST CONSUMER FRANCHISE

B of A’s biggest business is its coast-to-coast branch banking network that provides checking and savings accounts to tens of millions of customers, and accounts for almost 40% of total revenues. In 2017, the consumer side grew briskly as B of A attracted sundry new customers, adding 8% in deposits and 9% in loans and leases. Revenue rose by $2.8 billion or 8.8% to $34.5 billion. But once again, operating leverage swelled profits far more. Virtually flat expenses coupled with 9% revenue growth, raised net earnings by 14%, from $7.2 to $8.2 billion, making consumer by far B of A’s biggest money spinner.

This year is a primer on how B of A can get to J.P. Morgan territory: Operating leverage is driving double-digit profit growth on revenues advancing at half that rate.

B OF A’S GREATEST ASSET: LOW COST DEPOSITS

Warren Buffett, B of A’s largest shareholder, has frequently lauded the value of its “big, sticky deposits.” B of A boasts $665 billion in deposits that it can use to fund mortgage, auto, and credit card loans. It pays on average .04% rate on those deposits Factoring in the costs of overhead and operating its vast branch network, the total cost of those $665 million in deposits is 1.61%. Lending for mortgages, home equity and auto loans, and credit card loans carry average rates of around 10%, giving B of A a margin of 8.74%. And defaults are hovering near their lowest levels in decades.

MOYNIHAN’S STRATEGY: DON’T SCREW UP A GOOD THING

B of A and its rivals have experienced long periods of immense profitability in the past, buoyed by great credit quality, and a thriving economy. But as Moynihan likes to point out, they’ve generally squandered the huge gains in the flush times by chasing low-quality, low-margin business, and making excessively risky loans. Moynihan swears that B of A has learned from the past, and will lend mainly to the highly reliable customers it knows well and trusts.

So far, Moynihan has followed his plan like a postage stamp affixed to an envelope. Two years ago, B of A set a goal of 12% return on tangible equity, and 1% return on assets. It’s already hit 11% on the first goal, and gotten to over 90% of its goal on the second. Reaching 12% alone would lift B of A’s net earnings to almost $23 billion, $4 billion short of J.P. Morgan. But his buoyant optimism on the Q4 conference call suggests that Moynihan is just getting started. Moynihan stated that by dropping B of A’s corporate rate from around 29% into the low 20s, the new tax law alone will push B of A well past those benchmarks.

In effect, Moynihan is still playing catch up with Dimon, While J.P. Morgan’s avoided the pitfalls of the mortgage boom and kept investing for the future, B of A shrank to survive. Now, Moynihan too is in expansion mode, and once again, his mastery of operating leverage turns a program of modest, prudent growth into a powerful profit engine.

Moynihan also claimed that he’s determined to power well past what once seemed like stretch targets. He’s already taken B of A from a dog to contender. Now, he’s got a shot at making it the best.