全球债务水平创历史新高

总部设在华盛顿的国际货币基金组织（IMF）表示，全球债务已达到创纪录的164万亿美元，按照这样的趋势，如果融资环境趋紧，各国应对下次衰退可能会变得更困难，偿债难度也将上升。

上周三，IMF的半年度《财政监测》（Fiscal Monitor）报告指出，2016年全球公共和私营部门债务为全球GDP的225%，这是该组织提供的最新年度数据。前一个高点出现在2009年。

IMF财政事务部负责人维特·加斯帕接受采访时说：“164万亿美元是个巨大的数字。当我们说到即将出现的风险时，公共和私营领域的高额债务就是其中之一。”

IMF的全球经济展望处于2011年以来的最高点，如果不是全球债务带来的阴霾，这应属于乐观水平。该组织上周二预测，2018和2019年全球GDP将增长3.9%，但在随后几年里世界经济有可能受到货币政策收紧和美国财政刺激效用减退的影响。

私营部门债务飙升，特别是中国的私营债务，是全球债务上升的动力所在。IMF的数据显示，全球金融危机以来，中国几乎占新增私营债务的四分之三。

10年前的那场金融危机让全球银行体系濒临崩溃，也让世界经济陷入衰退，IMF的数据则展示了仍在复苏的全球经济所承担的债务规模。各国政府增加开支来促进增长，各家央行也通过购买债券等非常规手段让融资环境变得宽松起来。

IMF认为，债务到期后，大量主权债务可能造成政府难以进行再融资，特别是在融资环境收紧的情况下。高额债务还会削弱各国在国内经济陷入衰退时增加支出的能力，从而有可能拖累经济增长。

IMF表示，各国应果断采取行动来重新建立财政缓冲，以便能在恶劣环境下提高支出水平。该组织敦促美国“校正”财政政策，从而推动中期政府债务/GDP比例下降。美国联邦政府预算赤字预计将在2020年突破1万亿美元。

IMF称，去年的减税和最近美国预算案对政府支出的提升都将惠及所有收入群体。但受益最多的是收入排在前五分之一的美国人，其后是收入最少的那20%人口。因此，上述措施可能进一步“掏空”中产阶层收入。

IMF表示，多个政府的债务/GDP比例已经翻番。发达经济体中，这个数字超过85%的占三分之一以上。主要经济体中，日本去年的债务/GDP比例最高，为236%，随后是意大利（132%）和美国（108%）。

IMF的数字同时显示，在新兴市场和中等收入国家里，债务/GDP比例高于70%的占五分之一，其中巴西（84%）和印度（70.2%）分列一、二名。去年，中国的政府债务总额/GDP比例为47.8%。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

The world’s debt load has ballooned to a record $164 trillion, a trend that could make it harder for countries to respond to the next recession and pay off debts if financing conditions tighten, the International Monetary Fund said.

Global public and private debt swelled to 225 percent of global gross domestic product in 2016, the last year for which the IMF provided figures, the fund said last Wednesday in its semi-annual Fiscal Monitor report. The previous peak was in 2009, according to the Washington-based fund.

“One hundred and sixty-four trillion is a huge number,” Vitor Gaspar, head of the IMF’s fiscal affairs department, said in an interview. “When we talk about the risks looming on the horizon, one of the risks has to do with the high level of public and private debt.”

The global debt burden clouded the IMF’s otherwise upbeat outlook of the world economy, which is in its strongest upswing since 2011. The fund on last Tuesday forecast expansion of 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, while saying in subsequent years the global economy could be impacted by tighter monetary policy and the fading effects of U.S. fiscal stimulus.

Surging private-sector debt, particularly in China, is driving the build-up. China has accounted for almost three-quarters of the increase in private debt since the global financial crisis, according to the fund.

The IMF figures lay bare the scale of the debt hangover from which the world is still recovering a decade after the financial crisis pushed the global banking system to the brink and tipped the world economy into recession. Governments increased spending to boost growth, while central banks resorted to unconventional methods to ease financing conditions, such as buying bonds.

High levels of sovereign debt could make it difficult for governments to refinance when their debt reaches maturity, especially if financing conditions tighten, the IMF said. Large debts also impede the ability of nations to increase spending if their economies fall into recession, and may cause a drag on growth, according to the fund.

The IMF said countries should take decisive action to rebuild their fiscal buffers so they can increase spending during hard times. The fund urged the U.S., whose budget deficit is expected to surpass $1 trillion by 2020, to “recalibrate” its fiscal policy so government debt-to-GDP levels decline over the medium term.

The combination of last year’s tax cuts and increased government spending in a recent U.S. budget deal will benefit all income groups, the IMF said. However, those in the top quintile of incomes would benefit the most, followed by those in the bottom quintile, the fund said. As a result, the measures may contribute to the further “hollowing out” of middle-class incomes, it said.

Many governments have troubling debt-to-GDP levels, according to the fund. More than one-third of advanced economies had debt-to-GDP levels above 85 percent, three times more nations than in 2000, the IMF said. Among major economies, Japan had the highest debt-to-GDP level last year, at 236 percent, followed by Italy at 132 percent and the U.S. at 108 percent.

Meanwhile, a fifth of emerging markets and middle-income countries had debt levels above 70 percent of GDP, led by Brazil at 84 percent and India at 70.2 percent. Gross government debt in China stood at 47.8 percent last year, according to the IMF.