特朗普重启对伊制裁，波音与空客或将损失数十亿美元

由于美国总统特朗普的涉伊新政，波音及其欧洲竞争对手空客或将在与伊朗航空公司的民航飞机交易中损失几十亿美元。

5月8日，特朗普宣布美国将退出伊核协议，并再次对伊朗施加严格制裁。虽然美国呼吁其盟友也退出伊核协议，但德国、英国和法国仍希望留在协议中。

伊核协议规定，只要伊朗自废核武装，以美国为首的国际社会就将放松对伊朗的制裁。正是在伊核协议框架下，波音和空客等西方公司才得以与伊朗航空公司做生意，恰好伊朗也有大批客机急需更新换代，因此波音和空客累计已在伊朗签下了400亿美元的大单。

美国财政部长史蒂芬·姆努钦对《华盛顿邮报》表示：“波音和微软的许可证将会被撤销，现有的许可证都将被撤销。”

据《泰晤士报》报道，波音首席执行官丹尼斯·米伦伯格在最近表示，波音将“继续跟随美国政府的领导”。米伦伯格承认，波音与伊朗航空公司200亿美元的合同即将告吹。《纽约时报》指出，好在考虑到伊核协议的不确定性，伊朗订购的这些波音客机尚未排产。

空客则与伊航签订了100架飞机的订单，且已经交付了其中的三架。虽然空客是一家欧洲公司，但它也受美国立场的影响，因为它有超过10%的零部件来自美国。《华盛顿邮报》指出，空客公司表示将配合美国对伊实施制裁。

《华盛顿邮报》分析认为，虽然波音和空客损失了一个新市场，特别是“买飞机还是伊朗方面最想促成的生意”，但取消这些订单并不会对两家公司造成太大影响。伯恩斯坦研究公司对《华尔街日报》表示：“受影响的订单只占这两家公司订单总量的2%。”

《泰晤士报》还指出，当前中东地区的紧张局势对波音反而有助于波音卖出更多的军用机和其他防御技术。蒂尔集团的分析副总裁理查德·阿波拉法亚对《泰晤士报》表示：“现在的军火市场处在一个行情看涨的时期。”

除了航空工业，石油行业也受到了特朗普涉伊新政的影响。美国的制裁或将迫使一些企业从伊朗以外进口石油。到今年4月，伊朗的石油供应量约占全球石油供给的3%。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

Boeing and its European rival Airbus stand to lose billions dollars in commercial aircraft deals with Iranian airlines because of President Donald Trump’s new Iran policy.

On May 8th, Trump announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, and that strict sanctions would be reintroduced. Germany, the United Kingdom and France want to stay in the deal, despite calls from the U.S. to pull out.

The original deal lifted sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran curbing its nuclear program. Companies like Boeing and Airbus were then able to do business with Iranian airlines, which have outdated fleets. Combined, the two companies had won around $40 billion in contracts.

“The Boeing and Airbus licenses will be revoked,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told the Washington Post. “The existing licenses will be revoked.”

Rencently, Boeing’s chief executive Dennis A. Muilenburg said that the company would “continue to follow the U.S. government’s lead,” according to the Times. He acknowledged that Boeing’s $20 billion in contracts with Iranian airlines would be terminated. Boeing, however, had not yet started building or even slotted production for the planes because of the nuclear deal’s uncertainty, the New York Times reported.

Airbus, however, had already delivered three planes as part of its 100-plane order to Iran Air. And despite the fact that Airbus is a European company, it is impacted by the new U.S. position because more than 10% of parts come from the U.S., according to the Post. The company said it would comply with U.S. sanctions.

While it is a loss of a new market—the Post explained that after the Iran deal went into place “aircraft sales were among the most sought-after contracts”—the cancellation of the deals are not expected to impact the companies in a major way. “The total number of orders affected represents just 2% of the companies’ combined order backlogs,” Bernstein Research told the Wall Street Journal.

The Times also notes that the current tensions in the Middle East may even help Boeing sell fighter jets and other defense technology. “It is now a better market for arms sales, period,” Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at Teal Group, told the Times.

In addition to the aerospace industry, the oil industry was also affected by Trump’s decision on Iran: sanctions could force some companies to look for other supply lines outside of Iran, which provided 3% of global oil demand in April of this year.