2018世界杯股市下注指南
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俄罗斯世界杯于6月14日开幕，各方已为此盛世准备良久。投资者和分析师已然把啤酒厂家、零售商和广告商可能得到的好处都算进数据里了。剩下的还有什么机会？ 在世界杯月，博彩公司和酒吧的业绩可能会受到比赛结果的影响。如果多场比赛爆冷或平局，庄家就能获利；如果像巴西一样的热门球队频频获胜，就不那么如庄家的意了。英国队在比赛中走得越远，英国酒吧的生意就越好。如果澳大利亚成为黑马，澳大利亚达美乐披萨公司的销量就会上涨。此外，获胜球队的队服供应商也能从比赛中分一杯羹。 “世界杯的获胜者往往久负盛名，遇到重要比赛，他们的球迷更可能会去酒吧或者在家招待朋友一起看，因而带动了大屏幕电视和酒水的销量”，伦敦IG集团的分析师乔舒瓦·马霍尼在邮件里说。下文列出了可能受到世界杯影响的行业清单。 博彩业 世界杯是Paddy Power Betfair、GVC、William Hill等博彩公司竞相招徕互联网客户的好时机。然而，他们的短期业绩主要受比赛结果影响。如果头号热门球队巴西在7月15日举起冠军奖杯，博彩公司就得面临巨额债务了。因为大多数大型上市博彩公司都是英国公司，如果英国队获胜，他们也会因为本土球迷的热情赔上很多钱。 由于手机应用让下注变得十分简单，本届世界杯的下注规模势必飙升。开赛前夕，Bet fair下注平台就已经监测到了“用户活跃度升高”，预计总赌注会达到25亿英镑（33亿美元）。Taylor Collison的分析员安德鲁·欧巴赫说，澳大利亚博彩公司Tabcorp今年世界杯收入预计达到1.4亿澳元（1.06亿美元），高于2014年的1.26亿澳元。 与之相反，世界杯可能会给赌场带来短期负面影响，因为如果赌客移情别恋，赌场难免盈利受损。2014年世界杯期间，澳门博彩业六七月份收入均出现下滑，甚至赛事结束都没有好转。上周，德意志银行调低了对永利度假村 (Wynn Resorts) 的估值，原因是世界杯“会造成部分VIP客户流失”。 酒吧 如果球队杀出小组赛，国内的酒吧肯定会因为大批球迷涌入而营业额上涨。如果球队被淘汰，随之而来的失望情绪可能会造成相反的效果。Berenberg的分析师称，世界杯对Greene King等酒吧经营公司是个大福利，券商预测这类公司本季度同类销售增长将达2%-3%。 体育用品 优胜球队服装供应商可能会因为同款队服销量激增而出现短期销售额上涨。2014年世界杯期间，阿迪达斯售出超过800万件运动服，其中200万件是冠军德国队的颜色。阿迪达斯在本届世界杯赞助了32支球队中的12支，包括老牌劲旅阿根廷、西班牙和法国；竞争对手耐克赞助了巴西、葡萄牙和法国在内的10支球队。由于意大利止步淘汰赛，彪马就只能指望塞内加尔、塞尔维亚、瑞士和乌拉圭了。 因为世界杯刺激了消费者对足球运动装备的需求，迪克体育用品（Dick’s Sporting Goods）、JD Sports Fashion 、 Sports Direct International等体育用品零售商也会看到销售短暂上涨。 “众多体育品牌中，阿迪达斯对足球投入最多，阿迪也会因为卖出大量球衣和足球成为世界杯最大赢家。”Telsey Advisory Group的分析师克里斯提娜·费南德斯在邮件里说。 直播 摩根大通认为，推特会因为和福克斯合作实时播放世界杯集锦而赢利。MKM Partners分析师罗伯·桑德森说，对于推特而言，今年世界杯比2014年要重要得多，当年世界杯为公司二季度收入贡献了2400万美元。世界杯也将给Akamai Technologies等内容发布网络服务商以及为移动终端用户提供直播的广播电信公司带来流量。 旅行 Sun Trust分析师内福德·可汗说，世界杯球迷会因为沉迷电视比赛而没空做夏日出行计划。这可能会导致缤客公司（Booking Holdings）表现不佳。 电视转播权 彭博咨询（Bloomberg Intelligence）称，因为美国没有进入小组赛，今年美国世界杯广告收入预计会低于2014年。2015年，21世纪福克斯和康卡斯特（Comcast Corp.）旗下的德来蒙多 （Telemundo）以10亿美元拿下了2018和2022年世界杯的转播权。然而因为比赛大多数在凌晨，两家公司很可能因此受到影响。但彭博咨询的分析师阿明·本赛德说，德来蒙多受到的影响会小一些，“因为西班牙裔观众仍然会按时观看比赛”。 世界杯周边产品 FIFA电子游戏厂商美国艺电公司（Electronic Arts）可能是另外一大赢家。彭博咨询的马修·坎特曼在上个月的文章中提到，他认为EA的预测可能“较为保守，因为FIFA终极球队（FIFA Ultimate Team）等在线服务长势正劲，而世界杯可能会带来一波增长。” 饮食 泰国酿酒（Thai Beverage）会因为泰国的足球热赚上一笔。RHB研究所分析师朱丽安娜·蔡认为世界杯将刺激酒精饮料的消费。去年从俄罗斯获得43%销售收入的新加坡公司Food Empire Holdings或许也将从今年世界杯中获利。 比赛还可能会刺激澳大利亚达美乐披萨公司的6月销售表现。麦格理（Macquarie）已经于5月31日将达美乐的股票评级从中性（neutral）调整为跑赢大盘（outperform）。 股票交易额 亚洲的股票交易者要熬夜看球，不仅会缺觉，可能还会丢了生意。预计下个月的股票交易量和用户活跃度均将出现下滑。交通银行国际控股有限公司的首席战略师Hao Hong说：“人们会因为看世界杯，忘了做交易。他们整晚熬夜看球，班都不上了。”（财富中文网） 译者：Agatha |
The stage has long been set for soccer’s FIFA World Cup that kicks off in Russia on June 14. Investors and analysts have already factored in the potential benefits for the likes of brewers, retailers and advertisers. So what opportunities remain? For the likes of betting and pub companies, match results in the month-long competition are likely to have some influence on their financial performance. While bookmakers would benefit from a run of upsets and tied games, too many victories for favored teams such as Brazil would be a setback. The longer that England stays in the tournament, the better for British bar operators. Should Australia surprise, expect a boost for that country’s Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. And the winning team’s uniform supplier will also likely get a benefit. “The winners from this competition are typically well established, with supporters more inclined to visit pubs for big games, or play host at home, driving up sales of big screen TVs and alcohol,” Joshua Mahony, a market analyst at IG in London, said in an email. Here’s a round-up of sectors that are likely to be affected. Betting The tournament will provide fertile ground for bookmakers such as Paddy Power Betfair, GVC Holdings and William Hill in a race to recruit online customers. Though the main influence on short-term financial performance is likely to be the outcome of the games themselves. Should favorite Brazil lift the trophy on July 15, bookmakers could be left nursing hefty liabilities. With most of the big publicly-traded betting companies based in the U.K., victory for England would also prove costly. The volume of bets placed on the event is set to soar, with smartphone apps making wagering easier than ever before. The Betfair betting exchange has reported “strong levels of activity” in the run-up to the tournament and expects to take 2.5 billion pounds ($3.3 billion) of wagers. Australia’s Tabcorp Holdings may see a revenue gain of up to A$140 million ($106 million) from the competition, more than the A$126 million from Brazil 2014, according to Andrew Orbach, an analyst at Taylor Collison. By contrast, the World Cup may be a short-term negative for industries like casinos that stand to lose out when gamblers’ attention and money shift elsewhere. During the last competition in 2014, Macau’s gross gaming revenue declined in both June and July and didn’t pick up even after the tournament ended. Deutsche Bank last week trimmed estimates on Wynn Resorts Ltd., saying the World Cup “could cause some VIP softness in June.” Pubs Pubs in countries whose teams progress to the tournament’s later stages stand to gain from hosting throngs of jubilant fans. Disappointment caused by an early exit is likely to have the opposite effect. According to Berenberg analysts, the World Cup will be a boon to U.K. pub operators such as Greene King, with the brokerage estimating that some may see a 2% to 3% boost to like-for-like sales for the quarter. Sports Gear The maker of the winning team’s uniform can expect a short-term boost from sales of replica shirts. At the last World Cup in 2014, Adidas sold more than 8 million jerseys, including 2 million in the colors of winner Germany. In Russia, Adidas is sponsoring 12 of the 32 teams, including perennial powerhouses Argentina, Spain and Germany, with arch-rival Nike supplying 10 teams including Brazil, Portugal and France. After Italy’s elimination in qualifying, Puma relies on Senegal, Serbia, Switzerland and Uruguay. Sporting-goods retailers such as Dick’s Sporting Goods , JD Sports Fashion and Sports Direct International can also anticipate a brief bump to sales as the tournament stokes demand for soccer gear. “Of the athletic brands, Adidas has the most exposure to football and will be the biggest beneficiary through sales of jerseys and soccer balls,” Cristina Fernandez, an analyst with Telsey Advisory Group, tells Bloomberg in an emailed statement. Livestreaming JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects Twitter to benefit after the company partnered with Fox Sports to show World Cup highlights in almost real time. This year’s tournament could be a much larger deal for Twitter than it was in 2014, when the event contributed about $24 million of revenue in the second quarter, according to MKM Partners analyst Rob Sanderson. The competition could also provide traffic growth for Akamai Technologies, which helps customers deliver content over the Internet, and for broadcasting and telecom companies that provide real-time streaming to mobile users. Travel Fans following the games are more likely to be glued to the TV and may procrastinate planning their summer travel, according to SunTrust analyst Naved Khan. This could potentially lead to weakness for Booking Holdings. TV Rights U.S. advertising revenue tied to the World Cup is expected to be lower than in 2014 after the national team failed to qualify, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Twenty-First Century Fox and Comcast Corp.’s Telemundo secured rights to broadcast the 2018 and 2022 World Cups for about $1 billion back in 2015. The timing of matches — many will be early in the morning — will likely affect both networks too. Telemundo though, will be less impacted overall, “just because Hispanic viewers are still going to tune in,” BI analyst Amine Bensaid says. World Cup Add-ons FIFA video-game maker Electronic Arts may be another World Cup winner. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Matthew Kanterman wrote last month that he expects EA’s forecast will probably “prove conservative amid robust growth of live services such as FIFA Ultimate Team, with the World Cup probably driving a boost.” Food and Beverages Thai Beverage stands to benefit in soccer-mad Thailand. RHB Research Institute analyst Juliana Cai anticipates the World Cup will stimulate consumption for alcoholic beverages. Singapore’s Food Empire Holdings, which generated about 43% of sales last year from Russia, may also benefit. The tournament is also likely to support earnings at Australia’s Domino’s Pizza Enterprises in June. Macquarie upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral on May 31. Trading Volume Besides losing sleep, Asian traders who have to stay up overnight for matches may also lose business. Trading volume and volatility are expected to slump in the next month. “People watch the World Cup and forget to trade,” said Hao Hong, chief strategist at Bocom International Holdings in Hong Kong. “They watch it overnight and don’t come to work.” |
