牛津大学新研究指出，人类在可观测宇宙中是孤独的
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长久以来，人类遐思是否有智慧生命在其他星球建立高等文明。这样的幻想不仅成就了无数科幻小说，也使人憧憬于飞离太阳系、探索宇宙空间。 牛津大学人类未来研究所（Future of Humanity Institute）于6月发布的研究探讨了该问题，给出的结论不容乐观：在可观测的宇宙中，人类很有可能孑然一身。 该研究审视了费米悖论——就是说，类似于太阳的恒星数以十亿计，外星生命似乎应该存在，但与之相悖的是，其确实存在的证据却几乎没有。该悖论以物理学家恩利克·费米命名。他曾在新墨西哥州洛斯阿拉莫斯（Los Alamos, N.M.）向同事提出那著名的问题：“他们人呢？” 研究的作者们讨论了试图用以解决费米悖论的各种假设和方程。结果却并不令人惊喜： 我们的主要结论是，对研究中的不确定因素做科学处理之后，费米悖论的解答就是，人类在银河系甚至整个可观测宇宙中孤独存在着，这就目前来看，完全不是不可能的。 我们的第二项结论是，承认我们在对其他文明是否普遍存在这一问题上存在观测方面的局限的同时，我们最新的概率表明，人类独自存在的可能性是极大的。 牛津研究人员安德斯·桑德伯格是作者之一。他向科学新闻博客Universal-Sci透露，根据一些标准，“可以得到的情况是，我们星系中所存在的文明数量的平均数可能达到很高——比如有一百，但人类独自存在于银河系的可能性有30%！” 桑德伯格说，考虑到产生智慧生命所必不可少的条件，他和其他作者的共同结论是，人类“相当有可能”是唯一的。 尽管如此，该研究却反对向寻找地外文明泼冷水。“需要注意的是，本结论并不意味着我们就是孤独存在着的（在我们星系内或在可观测宇宙），只是说从科学上来讲这是相当有可能的，并且没什么不可思议。这只是对我们认知状态的描述，并不是一项新的测定结果。” 然而，作为一名更加踊跃的空间探索倡导者，特斯拉（Tesla）的CEO埃隆·马斯克上周在推特（Twitter）上看到了Universal-Sci的报道，回复道，“好奇怪啊。” 好奇怪啊 ——埃隆·马斯克 穆斯克也是太空运输公司SpaceX的CEO。他随后又称该研究的结论是人类文明实现太空航行并移居到地球以外空间的“附加动力”。 人类是否是可观测宇宙中现存的唯一文明尚不清楚，但每一成的可能性都是我们向地球以外空间移民的附加动力 ——埃隆·马斯克 （财富中文网） 译者：沈昕宇 |
Humanity has long wondered whether other worlds have life intelligent enough to build advanced civilizations. The notion has not only inspired countless works of science fiction, but also dreams of space exploration beyond our solar system. A study released in June by Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute examined the question and came to a depressing conclusion: It’s quite likely that humans are alone in the observable universe. The study looked at the Fermi paradox – the apparent discrepancy between the seeming likelihood of alien life, given the billions of stars similar to our sun, and the scant evidence that such life actually exists. The paradox was named after physicist Enrico Fermi, who famously asked his colleagues at Los Alamos, N.M.. “Where Is Everyone?” The study authors then examined various hypotheses and equations used to resolve the Fermi paradox. The results weren’t pretty: Our main result is to show that proper treatment of scientific uncertainties dissolves the Fermi paradox by showing that it is not at all unlikely ex ante for us to be alone in the Milky Way, or in the observable universe. Our second result is to show that, taking account of observational bounds on the prevalence of other civilizations, our updated probabilities suggest that there is a substantial probability that we are alone. One of the authors, Oxford researcher Anders Sandberg, told the science news blog Universal-Sci that by some measures “one can have a situation where the mean number of civilizations in the galaxy might be fairly high—say a hundred—and yet the probability that we are alone in the galaxy is 30%!” Given the conditions necessary to foster intelligent life, Sandberg said, he and his co-authors concluded there is a “fairly high likelihood” humans are alone. Despite those conclusions, the study argued against despairing against finding intelligence in the universe. “Note that this conclusion does not mean that we are alone (in our galaxy or observable universe), just that this is very scientifically plausible and should not surprise us. It is a statement about our state of knowledge, rather than a new measurement.” Nonetheless, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, one of the more ardent champions of space exploration, noticed the Universal-Sci story on Twitter last weekend and replied, “so strange.” So strange ——Elon Musk Musk, who is also CEO of space cargo company SpaceX, then cited the study’s conclusions as an “added impetus” for humanity to become a spacefaring civilization capable of extending life beyond Earth. It is unknown whether we are the only civilization currently alive in the observable universe, but any chance that we are is added impetus for extending life beyond Earth ——Elon Musk |
