要抓比特币窃贼，就给这些侦探打电话吧

如今，比特币和其他数字货币成了罪犯的新宠，原因是通过它们可以神不知鬼不觉地在互联网上匿名转移资金。但这样的说法或许言过其实，因为Chainalysis等公司帮助执法部门追踪这些神秘货币的业务正在蓬勃发展。

Chainalysis设在纽约市，它聘请了一批拥有博士头衔的数据科学家和统计学家来研究比特币的区块链，也就是记录交易的公共账本，从而找到谁拥有多少数字货币的线索。这项工作得以开展的原因是区块链包含一系列数字钱包，每个钱包都有独特的编号，而且可以看到其资金进出情况。

虽然这些钱包的“身份证”是随机字母和数字组成的字符串，但Chainalysis可以锁定那些和犯罪活动有关的钱包，以便执法部门搜索其他网络线索，从而把这些钱包和实际生活中的人联系在一起。在这方面，最著名的案例出现在2015年，Chainalysis的“侦查”帮助美国联邦调查局（FBI）挖出了两名腐败的联邦探员，他们一直从一个著名在线黑市的所有者手中盗取比特币。

比特币侦探公司可不止Chainalysis一家。在加利福尼亚，初创公司CipherTrace有意令自己的计算机感染上了勒索软件，目的就是追踪为解锁电脑而支付的比特币流向何处。对于既定的勒索行为，这样做可以获得有关幕后黑手的线索，某些情况下还能帮执法部门追回赎金。

这些公司不止追踪比特币。汤姆·罗宾逊和别人一起创立了设在伦敦的数字货币侦探公司Elliptic。他说：“以太坊、莱特币、瑞波币等其他货币都在快速扩张。”

“无论以什么样的形式存储价值，它都有可能被用于非法目的。”

对这些公司而言，Zcash等所谓隐私货币的出现可能意味着今后几年比特币侦探工作的终结。隐私货币不像比特币那样会留下交易记录。但Chainalysis的首席执行官迈克尔·格罗纳格尔并不担心。他指出，Zcash等货币的用户较少，而且对使用了这些货币的人来说，仍有可能找到一些蛛丝马迹。

此外，追踪罪犯只是数字货币侦探公司的业务之一。随着加密货币投资成为主流，这些公司开始帮助银行、对冲基金等机构在“了解客户”和反洗钱方面达到监管要求。

标普全球市场情报（S&P Global Market Intelligence）分析师汤姆·曼森认为：“相关法律一直而且仍将是老牌金融机构更放心地对待数字货币的障碍。”

数字货币侦探可能催生出另一项有意思的业务，那就是探测市场趋势。在委内瑞拉和中国等实施资本管制的国家，比特币交易活动增多可能意味着这个国家的货币面临着压力。在官方发布相关公告前，了解到这些情况甚至有可能让投资者提前几个月掌握宏观经济走势。这就是所谓的“把握趋势，赢得未来”。（财富中文网）

本文最初刊登在2018年7月1日出版的《财富》杂志。

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

BITCOIN AND OTHER DIGITAL CURRENCIES caught on with criminals thanks to their reputation as an anonymous, untraceable way to move money around the Internet. That reputation may be overblown. Companies like Chainalysis have built fast-growing businesses helping law enforcement track the mysterious money.

The New York City company employs a gaggle of doctoratewielding data scientists and statisticians who study Bitcoin’s blockchain—its indelible public ledger that records transactions—to gain clues about who owns given hoards of the digital currency. The practice is possible because the blockchain contains a series of digital “wallets” that have a unique identifier and show the flow of money into and out of the wallet.

Though the “keys” that identify the wallets are random alphanumeric strings, Chainalysis can identify clusters of wallets tied to criminal activity, enabling law enforcement to look for other online clues to connect them to a real-life identity. The most famous example of this came in 2015 when forensic sleuthing by Chainalysis helped the FBI identify two corrupt federal agents who had been stealing Bitcoins from the owner of a notorious online drug market.

Chainalysis isn’t the only Bitcoin detective out there. A California startup called CipherTrace infects its own computers with ransomware to observe the movement of Bitcoin paid to free the machines. The activity can provide clues about who is behind a given shakedown and, in some cases, help law enforcement recover the money.

It’s not just Bitcoin the firms are chasing. “Other currencies such as Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple are rapidly expanding,” says Tom Robinson, cofounder of London-based forensic firm Elliptic.

“Whatever form value is stored in, it can be used for illicit purpose.”

Bitcoin detectives’ work may be cut out for them in the years ahead. The arrival of so-called privacy coins like Zcash do not leave behind a transaction record like Bitcoin. But Chainalysis CEO Michael Gronager is not fazed. He says that relatively few people use them and that it’s still possible to glean some insight about those who do.

Besides, tracking criminals is just one line of business for forensic firms. As cryptocurrency investing enters the mainstream, these companies are working to help banks, hedge funds, and others comply with “know your customer” and anti–money laundering laws.

“These laws have been, and will continue to be, a hurdle for incumbent financial institutions becoming more comfortable with digital currencies,” says Tom Mason, an analyst with S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Cryptoforensics could give rise to another intriguing business: detecting market trends. An uptick of Bitcoin activity in countries such as Venezuela or China, where governments impose capital controls, could indicate that a national currency is under stress. Insights could even help investors understand macroeconomic trends months before authorities make official statements about them. Call it putting your money where your mouth is.

This article originally appeared in the July 1, 2018 issue of Fortune.