饱受恶性通胀之苦，委内瑞拉打算这么干

委内瑞拉准备发行一种叫做主权玻利瓦尔的新货币来应对眼下的恶性通胀，这种新货币绑定的是该国的加密货币石油币，目标是把现有货币面值去掉5个0。总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗于7月26日宣布新币的实施日期为8月20日，称委内瑞拉需要“经济革命”。

需求十分迫切。自马杜罗2013年上台以来，委内瑞拉一直饱受恶性通胀之苦，同期还因为油价下跌及宏观经济极度不平衡导致经济危机。在他看来，委内瑞拉是美国发动的“经济战争”的受害者。马杜罗于今年5月再次当选总统，任期六年，而联合国与欧盟称这次大选不公正。

国际货币基金组织（IMF）称玻利瓦尔的通胀率年内会达到1,000,000% ，而该国的国内生产总值预计下跌18%。“委内瑞拉就像1923年的德国或者20世纪末的津巴布韦。”IMF在报告中称。

委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔的改值遭到了质疑。该国的经济学家阿斯德鲁巴尔·R·奥利韦罗斯发推文称：“主权玻利瓦尔绑定的是石油币。白日做梦。支撑货币价值的力量是信心。而恰恰是因为没有人相信玻利瓦尔，才导致了恶性通胀。”

统计学教授弗里克斯·赛加斯·R发推文称：“我们不要忽视下面几点：首先，主权玻利瓦尔的价值相当于查韦斯上台时玻利瓦尔的1亿倍。但是，这不全是马杜罗的责任：查韦斯要为他在任时增长的3个0负责，现在换成马杜罗了，他又加了5个0。历史遗留问题。”

教授路易斯·韦森特·里昂发推文称：“石油币是一种没有相关发行的货币，既没有来自市场的信心，也无法在大的经济体内使用。把新玻利瓦尔和和石油币绑在一起相当于什么都没绑。”

经济分析员亨克尔·加西亚发推文称：“我担心这一切会让这场货币危机更加复杂，在现在货币现金比这么低的情况下，这么操作十分困难。”

马杜罗于2月称，委内瑞拉政府已经预先挖了1亿石油币，出售价格将超过60亿美元。美国财政部警告美国公民不要购买石油币。石油币的价值按理应该是由石油和矿产储备支撑的，现在1石油币的价格已经低于其最初60美元的售价，甚至有加密货币报告称石油币价格为16.7美元。马杜罗在7月26日的发布会上未详细说明将如何利用石油币支撑主权玻利瓦尔的发行流通。

《纽约时报》称，委内瑞拉黑市上1美元大概能换350万玻利瓦尔。由于公共服务中断、食物短缺，月工资相只相当于1美元，为了生存，委内瑞拉人开始越来越多地使用以物易物的方式。数十万的委内瑞拉人已经涌入邻国。

津巴布韦币经历了四轮货币改值，后来甚至印出了面值100万亿的钞票，最后才废弃了所有货币。西北大学的经济学家丹尼尔·兰斯伯格·罗德里格斯告诉《纽约时报》，想在委内瑞拉解决货币问题，可能还不如津巴布韦。他认为：“委内瑞拉的情况十分混乱，更难重拾信心，打破现有循环。”（财富中文网）

译者：Agatha

Venezuela is tackling hyperinflation by lopping five zeroes from the value of the bolivar, creating a new currency, the Sovereign Bolivar, that will be anchored to its cryptocurrency, the Petro. President Nicolas Maduro announced the implementation date on July 26 as August 20, saying the country needs an “economic revolution.”

And it sorely does. Venezuela has been suffering under hyperinflation since Maduro took office in 2013, which coincided with falling oil prices and large macroeconomic imbalances that led to economic crisis. From his point of view, the country is the victim of an “economic war” waged by the U.S. Maduro was re-elected for another six years in May in an election the United Nations and the European Union called fraudulent.

The International Monetary Fund said the rate of inflation of the bolivar is set to hit 1,000,000% this year as Venezuela’s gross domestic product is expected to fall by 18%. “The situation in Venezuela is similar to that in Germany in 1923 or Zimbabwe in the late 2000’s,” the IMF wrote in its report.

The redenomination of the bolivar was met with skepticism. Venezuelan economist Asdrubal R. Oliveros tweeted: “The Sovereign Bolivar is anchored to Petro. A fantasy. The backing of a coin is trust. Precisely because no one trusts the bolivar is why hyperinflation was unleashed.”

El Bolívar soberano se ancla al Petro. Una entelequia. El respaldo de una moneda es la confianza. Justamente porque nadie confía en el Bolívar es que se desencadenó la hiperinflación. Así vamos…

——Asdrubal R. Oliveros

Statistics professor Félix Seijas R. tweeted, “Let’s not lose sight of the following: 1 Sovereign Bolivar would amount to 100 million of the bolivars at the time Chavez came to power. And no, it’s not a matter of Maduro: Chavez was responsible for three of those zeros in his life, and now through Maduro, another five. The legacy.”

No perdamos de vista lo siguiente: 1 bolívar soberano equivaldría a 100 millones de los bolívares con los que Chávez recibió el poder. Y no, no es un asunto de Maduro, Chávez fue responsable en vida de tres de esos ceros, y ahora, a través de Maduro, de otros cinco. El legado.

—— Félix Seijas R.

Profesor Luis Vicente Leon tweeted “The Petro is a currency without a relevant circulation, without confidence from the market and banned in large economies. Tying the new Bolivar to Petro is tying it to nothing.”

El Petro es una moneda sin circulación relevante, sin confianza en el mercado y prohibida en las grandes economías. Atar el nuevo bolívar al Petro es atarlo a la nada.

—— Luis Vicente Leon

Economic analyst Henkel Garcia tweeted: “I fear that all this will complicate the cash crisis even more, something that seemed difficult with the already very low monetary cash ratio.”

Me temo que todo esto complicará aún más la crisis de efectivo, algo que parecía difícil debido a la ya muy baja relación de efectivo / masa monetaria.

—— Henkel Garcia U.

Back in February, Maduro said 100 million Petros, pre-mined by the Venezuelan government, would be sold at a value of more than $6 billion. U.S. Treasury warned citizens not to buy it. The value of a Petro, supposedly backed by oil and mineral reserves, has dropped from its initial sale price of $60, with one cryptocurrency reporting a price of $16.70. Maduro did not offer details in his press conference on July 26 about how the Petro would support the Sovereign Bolivar.

On the black market in Venezuela, one U.S. dollar will fetch you about 3.5 million bolivars, the New York Times said. To survive amid public service outages and food shortages, with monthly wages equaling about one U.S. dollar, residents are increasingly turning to bartering. Hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have fled into neighboring countries.

Zimbabwe’s dollar went through four rounds of redenomination, with the country eventually printing a $100 trillion bill before scrapping the currency altogether. Economist Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez of Northwestern University told the New York Times Venezuela might be less successful in fixing its currency issues than Zimbabwe was. “The level of chaos in Venezuela makes it that much more difficult to restore confidence and break out of this cycle,” he said.