谁是特朗普当选总统的最大功臣？放弃投票的选民

美国民调机构皮尤研究中心的一项新近研究发现，2016年特朗普赢得美国总统大选过程中，拥有投票权却放弃投票的选民与实际投票的选民一样负有责任。

该研究指出一个重要的数据：2016年，有资格投票的美国人里十人有四人放弃投票。皮尤的研究人员采取独特（也独具价值）的步骤验证投票行为真实性，从而判断哪些人的确投了票，哪些人弃权。通过将现实的数据分类，他们明确了一点：2016年，弃权选民与实际投票的选民对特朗普获胜责任一样大。

研究人员还进一步从人口统计学和政治立场的角度研究投票的选民和放弃投票权的选民。他们指出，相比参与投票的选民，放弃投票的选民可能更年轻、受教育较少、相对不够富有，而且大多不是白人。

研究囊括了多项细分数据，其中有一些特征很明显。比如，研究者指出：“民主党人和倾向民主党的独立派在放弃投票的选民中占比达55%。”在一些关键的摇摆州，假如30岁以下的选民增加，热门候选人希拉里·克林顿应该有可能胜出。

正如这张图表所示，弃权的选民可能比投票的选民更年轻、不那么富裕，而且不是白人。放弃投票的选民里民主党更多。

——皮尤研究中心

虽然皮尤研究显示，弃权的选民不太可能认同共和党的主张，但在放弃投票的选民意识形态观方面，数据并不够明确。研究的执笔者写道：“由于弃权选民政治立场散漫的情况更为普遍，比起投票选民在意识形态方面更多属于‘混合’类别。”（财富中文网）

译者：Pessy

审校：夏林

When it comes to the Donald Trump presidency, nonvoters are just as responsible as verified 2016 voters for the presidential election results, according to a new study from the Pew Research Center.

The study notes an important statistic: four in 10 Americans who were eligible to vote did not do so in 2016. And by taking the unique (and uniquely valuable) step of validating those who claimed they voted, Pew researchers were able to determine who actually voted and who did not. Breaking out these categories into hard data makes it clear: Nonvoters in 2016 had just as much to do with establishing the Trump presidency as actual voters.

The study researchers also expanded on the demographic and political distinctions between voters and voter-eligible nonvoters. They noted that compared with validated votes, “nonvoters were more likely to be younger, less educated, less affluent, and nonwhite.”

The study includes a lot of granular statistics, some of which easily stand alone. For example, “Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents made up a 55% majority of nonvoters,” the researchers noted. An increase in under-30 voters in key swing states could have cinched the election for popular vote winner Hillary Clinton.

As this chart shows, nonvoters were more likely than voters to be younger, less educated, less affluent and nonwhite. And nonvoters were much more Democratic.

—— Pew Research Center

And while the study shows that nonvoters were less likely to align with the Republican Party, the data gets fuzzier in terms of how nonvoters feel ideologically. “Owing in part to the tendency of nonvoters to be politically disengaged more generally, there are far more nonvoters than voters who fall into the ‘mixed’ category on the ideological consistency scale,” the study authors noted.