美国经济形势大好，但联邦赤字却创下2012年以来的新高，原因在哪里？

美国财政部的最新数据显示，美国赤字刚刚创下了2012年以来的最高记录。

特朗普政府宣布，2018财年联邦赤字上升了17%，达到7790亿美元。在经济形势大好的情况下，这个数字显得颇为突兀。美国失业率降到了近半个世纪以来的最低水平，薪资正在逐渐上升，通胀十分“温和”。作为对比，在2012年美国赤字升至1万亿美元时，美国仍在想方设法走出经济低谷，并在这一方面投入了重金。

因此，为什么赤字会在如此稳定的经济环境下不断上升？

与经济繁荣发展相伴的往往是低赤字，因为经济增长会带来税收和家庭收入的增长，而且政府也会有钱花，人们对社会服务的需求也会降低。然而在当前的美国，各种形势的相互作用产生了相反的效果。

去年通过的企业减税法案已开始实施，政府税收因此而减少了760亿美元，同比降低了22%。出现的缺口则由个人和个体税收的增加来填补，因此政府的收入在2017年至2018年间基本上没有什么变化。然而，预算缺口从一年前的3.5%升至3.9%，而且这两年的缺口均高于3.2%的近40年平均水平。

与此同时，开支增长了3%，主要用于军事以及社保和联邦债务利息支出。负责任联邦预算委员会警告说，按照这个趋势，赤字可能最快在明年年初就会再次达到1万亿美元。其他独立分析显示，即便考虑经济增长因素，共和党的减税举措随着时间的推移将导致赤字的增加。

营收出现增长的一个领域是来自于“消费税、关税和其他”项下的收入。这部分收入在2018年9月达到了350亿美元，同比增长了35%。它的增长可能源于特朗普政府对美国传统贸易伙伴的商品所征收的关税。（财富中文网）

译者：Pessy

审校：夏林

The U.S. deficit just hit its highest level since 2012, according to the latest figures from the Treasury.

The Trump administration announced that the deficit had risen by 17% in the 2018 fiscal year to $779 billion. That’s an odd blip in an economy that’s otherwise performing well. Unemployment is at its lowest level in nearly half a century, wages are gradually rising, and inflation is “tame.” By contrast, in 2012, when the deficit topped $1 trillion the U.S. was still in the midst of digging itself out of a recession, and spending a lot to do so.

So why is the deficit trending up in such a stable economy?

Economic boom times are expected to be paired with low deficits, as economic growth leads to higher tax revenues and household incomes. That increases the government’s ability to spend while reducing the demand for social services. But in this case, circumstances have converged to produce the opposite effect.

The corporate tax cut passed last year came into effect, reducing tax collections by $76 billion, or 22% year over year. That gap was made up by increased revenues from personal and self-employment taxes, making government receipts approximately the same between 2017 and 2018. Still, the budget shortfall rose to 3.9% from 3.5% the year before. Both years were above the 40-year average of 3.2%.

A simultaneous 3% rise in spending—primarily on the military, but also on Social Security and federal debt interest— exacerbated the effect of the shortfall. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warned that the deficit could once again reach $1 trillion as early as next year if trends remain the same. Other independent analyses have shown that the Republican tax cuts will result in growing deficits over time, even taking economic growth into account.

One area where revenue increased was receipts from “excise, customs and other” sources. Totaling $35 billion for September 2018, that revenue increased 35% over September 2017. That increase may be related to Trump administration tariffs on goods from the U.S.’s traditional trading partners.