保持全球增长，富国应做什么

经济合作与发展组织（OECD）于上周三指出，未来两年，全球经济应会继续保持增长，不过该组织已下调了对德国、法国、意大利等部分富国的增长预期。目前的经济信号喜忧参半，但很多专家认为，未来12至18个月里，美国经济就算不陷入衰退，其增长也会趋于疲软。

据经合组织预测，2019年和2020年，全球GDP增长速度可能将从今年的3.7%降至3.5%。经合组织认为，虽然增长放缓对任何一个经济周期都在所难免，但中美贸易摩擦却使眼下的情况变得更加糟糕。经合组织还指出，英国脱欧也加深了欧洲经济的不确定性。

经合组织呼吁“各国政策制定者重建对国际对话和制度的信心”。该组织还再度呼吁欧洲货币联盟的实现。

除了呼吁建立各国建立沟通桥梁，经合组织此次还特别关注了劳动者怎样才能从经济增长中获益。

经合组织的首席经济学家劳伦斯·布恩撰文称：“在巩固全球经济的过程中，也要回应人们对工资和生活标准缺乏改善以及缺少机会的担忧。要通过促进竞争来提高企业活力，提高工人的议价权。”

此外，还应提高劳动者的教育水平，以及促进他们在不同企业的流动。比如一些硅谷巨头便串通一气，将工人工资保持在较低水平，直到联邦法院强令这些公司补偿这些工人的工资。现在，这些公司又在想其他的方法逼迫员工顺从。

今年，印度尼西亚等新兴市场国家的GDP增长率约在5%左右，中国约为6%，印度约为7%。《经济学人》杂志在上周指出，如果富国不想拖全球经济增长的后腿，他们就要学会放松管制，削弱垄断企业的权力，降低准入门槛，将经济增长的收益分返还给劳动者和消费者。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

Global growth should continue for the next two years, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said last Wednesday, but it has revised forecasts down for some richer countries, including Germany, France, and Italy. Signals are mixed, but many forecasters agree that the U.S. is also going to experience weaker growth in the next 12 to 18 months — if not an outright recession.

Global GDP growth may dip from 3.7% this year to 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, the OECD predicts. While slowing growth is a natural part of any economic cycle, the OECD says that trade tensions between the U.S. and China have made things worse. It also warns that Brexit has contributed to uncertainty in Europe.

Instead, the OECD urges “policymakers to restore confidence in international dialogue and institutions”. It also repeated previous calls for the completion of the European Monetary Union.

In addition to its focus on building better bridges between countries, this semester’s forecast had a special focus on ways that workers can themselves gain from economic growth.

“Shoring up the global economy also involves responding to people’s concerns about the lack of improvements in wages, living standards and opportunities,” OECD chief economist Laurence Boon said in a statement. “Promoting competition to improve business dynamics can help by increasing workers’ bargaining position.”

So can better education of workers and promoting their movement among different companies. Silicon Valley giants, for example, colluded to keep their workers wages low until a federal judge ordered them to compensate workers for it. Now, they are pursuing other means of coercing their employees into docility.

In the meantime, emerging markets such as Indonesia are growing at 5%, China is growing around 6%, and India around 7%. If rich countries are going to stop dragging down the global average, they may have to learn to loosen up, reduce the power of corporate monopolies, lower barriers to entry, and return economic gains to workers and consumers, The Economist wrote last week.