《财富》2019全球大预言

2018年，在大多时候，人们都会觉得无法预测随后24小时的情况，更不用说一整年。某几天的新闻够看上一个星期；商业和政治领域在某几个月出现的变化比过去几年都大。别以为2019年的情况会有什么不同。但大家一定要知道，虽然世界正在发生巨变，但以往的一些经验仍然可靠，屏蔽掉噪音就行。在此，《财富》杂志内部专家将为大家介绍明年可能出现的最重要的颠覆、创新和机遇。

For much of 2018, Predicting the events of the next 24 hours—never mind a full 365 days—has felt impossible. Some days have contained a week’s worth of headlines; some months have contained more changes to the worlds of business and politics than an entire calendar of years past. Don’t expect 2019 to be any different. But do understand that while the world is changing in fundamental ways, some old lessons still hold true. Just tune out the noise. Here, Fortune’s in-house experts guide you through the biggest disruptions, innovations, and opportunities that are likely to present themselves next year.

1.（勉强）交易的艺术

随着经济灾难的真实风险让人们变得清醒起来，过去两年出现的许多全球性危机都将在一定程度上被实用主义化解。

1. The Art of the (Reluctant) Deal

Many of the global crises that emerged in the past two years will be partially solved by pragmatism, as the real risk of economic catastrophe serves as a wake-up call.

美国国会重新开始运转

摆脱了共和党自由党团的干扰后，众议院开始就一些早该处理而且有普遍基础的法案进行投票。参议院多数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔这两年一直忙于把保守派法官塞进联邦法院，随后他将和众议院议长南茜·佩洛希一起处理开支、农业和移民改革事务以及特朗普总统期待已久的基础设施法案。预计佩洛希将在美墨边境“建墙”问题上做出表面上的让步，以便相关法案顺利通过。

英国脱欧变得更加混乱

尽管谈判了两年，3月份英国脱欧最终期限到来时双方将无法达成全面协议。在边缘政策博弈中，由于可能影响全球金融市场稳定，双方将退而求其次，敲定一份只涵盖最基本问题的干巴巴的协议，包括英国和北爱尔兰的边界问题以及在英国居住的欧盟公民的工作权。虽然遭到本党极右翼人士的反对，但特蕾莎·梅将在工党帮助下赢得议会投票。所有的二次公投期望都会破灭。

沙特王储度过危机

由于记者贾迈勒·卡舒吉被害而面临国际压力的沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼将被他的父亲，萨勒曼国王“剪掉翅膀”，但会保住王储之位。他的职责会被削减，失去外交和国防事务主导权，直到卡舒吉事件淡出人们的视线。相应的，这位王储的工作重点将转向国内政策和经济。

奥巴马医改带来利润

尽管共和党废除了全民参保条款，但在奥巴马医改的最后一年，有近1200万美国人参加了个人医保。撇开政治纷争不谈，Centene等保险公司在整个市场稳定后借此项法案赚了大钱。2019年Centene将在20个州推出平价医疗保险；保险巨头信诺将扩大奥巴马医改业务的覆盖范围；Oscar Health等比较年轻的公司在此项业务上的投入将增长一倍，因为它们嗅到了持续盈利的机会。

长期主义

2019年最热门的资产将是可持续投资类资产。在贝莱德公司CEO拉里·芬克和注重目标的亿万富翁们带领下，社会责任型公司和秉承长期主义的金融系统的发展势头将不断加快。其结果是到明年底，专业人士管理的资产中将有40%投入到和环境、社会以及公司治理（ESG）有关的领域，高于2018年年初的26%.

罗马求上门

全球经济刚刚开始滑坡，意大利就出现了2.3万亿欧元债务以及债务失控后的螺旋上升趋势。对欧元集团来说，意大利经济体系的衰败甚至比希腊的还难以置信。欧元集团将同意在意大利重组债务后提供援助。

贸易战局势先恶化后好转

中美贸易摩擦继续升级，造成2019年美国GDP增速降至2.75%。遭受重创的小企业和农民以及即将到来的2020年美国大选让双方坐到了谈判桌前并相互妥协。特朗普将把解决自己制造出来的问题称作政治胜利。

机遇之地

机遇地带投资被称为“有史以来最不可思议的减税措施”，它允许富有的个人或投资公司将资金投入8700个欠缺服务的社区，也就是“机遇地带”，从而争取免税待遇。2019年最有投资吸引力的城市包括底特律、洛杉矶和亚特兰大。预计今后几年这些地区的房价将上涨，并将出现新的就业机会和新公司。

Congress Starts Legislating Again

A House freed from the demands of the Freedom Caucus starts voting on some long-overdue common-ground legislation. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell—who for the past two years has focused his efforts on packing federal courts with conservative judges—works with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on spending, a farm bill, immigration reform, and an infrastructure bill that President Trump has long wanted to see on his desk. Expect a nominal concession from Pelosi on building “the wall” on the Mexican border to grease the wheels.

Brexit Gets Messier

Despite two years of negotiations, March’s Brexit deadline will approach with no comprehensive deal in sight. In a game of brinkmanship, with the stability of global financial markets at stake, both sides concede to a bare-bones deal that will cover only the most basic issues at stake, such as the border with Northern Ireland and the right to work for EU nationals living in the U.K. Despite a revolt from the right-most fringes of her party, Theresa May will win a parliamentary vote with help from the Labour Party. Any hopes for a second referendum are dashed.

MBS Rides It Out

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman—facing international pressure over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi—will have his wings clipped by his father, King Salman, but will retain his position in the line of succession. His portfolio will be cut—he’ll have to take a back seat on foreign relations and defense until the Khashoggi heat dies down—and he’ll instead focus on domestic policy and economic matters.

Obamacare Plans Turn a Profit

Nearly 12 million Americans signed up for individual health plans through Obamacare last year, despite the GOP’s repeal of its requirement that everyone carry insurance. Insurers like Centene have been making big money off the health law as the overall market stabilizes, political bedlam aside. The company is offering ACA coverage in 20 states in 2019; insurance giant Cigna is expanding its Obamacare footprint; and newer firms like Oscar Health are doubling down on coverage offerings as they smell continued profit opportunity in the air.

Long-termism

The hottest assets in 2019 will be sustainably invested ones. The charge, led by Black-Rock’s Larry Fink and purpose-minded millennials, for socially responsible companies and a financial system imbued with long-termism will continue to pick up speed. The result will be 40% of professionally managed assets being invested with consideration of ESG (environmental, social, and governance) factors by the end of next year, up from 26% at the start of 2018.

Rome Comes Begging

2.3 trillion euros and rising—spirals out of control at the first whiff of a global downturn. The fall of the Italian economic system is even more unthinkable to the Eurogroup than Greece’s, and it agrees to a bailout package after Italy restructures its debt.

Trade War Gets Worse, Then Gets Better

Trade tensions between China and the U.S. continue to escalate, slowing U.S. GDP growth to 2.75% for the year. Hard-hit small businesses and farmers and the looming 2020 U.S. presidential election bring the two sides to the negotiating table, and a compromise is struck. Trump will claim a political victory in solving a problem of his own creation.

Land of Opportunity

Opportunity Zone investing—called “the most unbelievable tax break ever”—allows wealthy individuals or investment firms to park their money in any of the 8,700 underserved communities designated as “opportunity zones” for a chance to erase tax obligations. The most alluring cities for investment in 2019 will include Detroit, Los Angeles, and Atlanta. Look to these areas for higher home prices, job creation, and business launches in the next several years.

特朗普的女性对手

Women Take on Trump

女性浪潮仍将继续涌动，争夺总统候选人位置的女性民主党人士将超过男性。预计参与争夺的有参议员卡玛拉·哈里斯、伊丽莎白·沃伦和克里斯汀·吉利布兰德，以及来自夏威夷的众议员图尔西·贾巴德。前代理司法部长萨利·耶茨也可能加入其中，奥普拉·温弗瑞则将退出。

The Women’s Wave will continue, and more women than men will run for the Democratic nomination for President. Expect Senators Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Kirsten Gillibrand to be in the mix, as well as Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. An outside run from former Acting Attorney General Sally Yates is in the offing, but Oprah Winfrey will decline.

每桶80美元

2019年年底油价：经济增速可能放慢，但仍足以推动油价升至高于当前价格的水平。美国许多页岩油公司都会松一口气，因为他们的收支平衡成本可能高达每桶60美元。

2750点

2019年底标普500指数点位：贸易摩擦和通胀担忧将引发多次恐慌性离场，随后市场将反弹，最终美股指数将略低于目前的水平。

3%

美国联邦基金利率：就算经济增速放慢，美联储仍将在今后12个月内加息三次，从而使基准利率达到2008年年初时的水平。

$80

Price of a barrel of oil at the end of 2019:Economic growth may slow, but it will be strong enough to push oil prices higher than current levels. That will be a relief for many U.S. shale producers, whose break-even costs can be as high as $60 a barrel.

2,750

S&P 500 at the end of 2019: Trade tensions and fears of inflation will prompt multiple freak-outs, ¬followed by rallies that leave U.S. stock indexes slightly lower than they stand today.

3%

Federal funds rate: Even as economic growth cools, the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate three times in the next 12 months, to a level last seen in early 2008.

1.5%

美国房价增幅：

过去10年，有房一族在很长一段时间里都习惯于每年5%-7%的房产升值速度。但我们预计2019年房价涨幅将比沙钱还要平，这要归咎于抵押贷款成本和房价承受能力。

1.5%

Growth in U.S. home prices:

Homeowners got accustomed to appreciation of 5% to 7% a year for much of this decade. But look for average prices to get flatter than a sand dollar in 2019. The culprits: mortgage costs and affordability.

2. 豆豆城风光无限，苹果拿下艾美奖

2019年我们将关注的人和事。

2. Beantown Booms, and Apple Wins an Emmy

Who and what we’ll be watching in 2019.

波士顿挺进决赛

星光四溢的波士顿竞技队伍将分别进入美国职业橄榄球大联盟（NFL）、美国男子职业篮球联赛（NBA）和美国职业棒球大联盟（MLB）决赛。新英格兰爱国者队将在第53届超级碗上遭遇明尼苏达维京人（去年我们也是这么预测的，但今年我们很有信心）。状态火热的红袜队将把他们在世界大赛（即MLB总冠军赛）上的连胜势头延续到下个赛季，这要归功于他们的一批年轻天才球员。他们将面对国家联盟黑马米尔沃基酿酒人队。勒布朗·詹姆斯离开东区后，波士顿凯尔特人队终于打开了通往NAB总决赛的通道，但他们还得面对史上最为强大的金州勇士队。

流媒体战争新前线

现在已经是电视的黄金时代。接下来会是什么？白金时代吗？2019年，电视迷终于可以享受苹果公司带来的新福利了，作为iPhone的制造商，苹果资金充裕的视频业务已经上线（最新传闻是对苹果设备用户免费）。这个消息的爆炸性不如苹果在内容领域的上一次尝试，也就是“App之战”，前提是没有瑞茜·威瑟斯彭、史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格、达米恩·查泽雷等一众好莱坞天才参与的话。但我们认为不会出现和《权力的游戏》同等水平的大作。乔布斯打造的这家公司将严守PG-13级（即13岁以下慎看）红线。

电竞赛事登陆黄金时段，但不会超过板球

2018年的英雄联盟季中冠军赛观看人数达到创纪录的6000万人次。2019年，预计英雄联盟全球总决赛将吸引逾1亿观众。足球方面，美国女足的人气和成绩将让女足世界杯全球观赛人数突破8亿。但和板球世界杯相比，这两个数字都是小巫见大巫。虽然不是美国的热门项目，但明年的板球世界杯观看人数仍将高达20亿。

Boston in the Finals

The stars will align for Boston as its NFL, NBA, and MLB teams each make their respective finals. The New England Patriots will meet the Vikings in Super Bowl LIII. (We made the same prediction last year, but we’re sure of it this time.) The red-hot Red Sox will carry their World Series–winning ways into next season, thanks to their talented young roster. They’ll face the Milwaukee Brewers who are the surprise package of the National League. With LeBron James out of the East, the Boston Celtics finally have a route to the NBA Finals, but they’ll have to face a Golden State Warriors team who are stronger than they’ve ever been.

A New Front in the Streaming Wars

We’re already in the Golden Age of Television. What comes next? The Platinum Age? In 2019, TV lovers will finally get the added benefit of Apple’s beneficence, as the iPhone maker’s well-funded video service arrives (for free to Apple device owners, according to the latest rumors). And this won’t bomb like Apple’s last attempt at content, “Battle of the Apps.” Not with Reese Witherspoon, Steven Spielberg, Damien Chazelle, and a bevy of other Hollywood talent on board. But don’t expect any Game of Thrones–level gore. It’s strictly PG-13 fare at the House that Jobs built.

E-sport Viewership Goes Prime Time But Won’t Beat Out Cricket

A record-breaking 60 million people watched the League of Legends Mid-Season Invitational finals match this year. In 2019, expect the League of Legends World Championship to garner over 100 million viewers. In soccer, the popularity and success of the U.S. women’s national team will push global Women’s World Cup viewership over 800 million. But both will pale in comparison to the Cricket World Cup, which, while not a big draw in the States, will see a massive 2 billion viewers next year.

新星

Rising Stars

哈桑·明哈杰

喜剧演员

Netflix制作的《哈桑·明哈杰：爱国者有话说》节目共32集，2018年10月首次播出，将在2019年延续很长时间。

Hasan Minahj

Comedian

Netflix made a 32-¬episode order for Daily Show–alum Minhaj’s Patriot Act, which debuted Oct. 28 and will run well into 2019.

Lizzo

歌手

我们将听到Lizzo的首张专辑，她会通过音乐和社交媒体来倡导多样性以及电臀舞。

Lizzo

Musician

We’ll be listening to the debut album from Lizzo, who celebrates diversity—and twerking—through her music and social media.

梅纳·马苏德

演员

这位加拿大演员一直很低调。但在2019年，随着迪士尼制作的真人版《阿拉丁》的上映，他将名声大振。

Mena Massoud

Actor

This Canadian actor has been flying under the radar, but in 2019, he will be everywhere as Aladdin in Disney’s live-action remake.

马洛里·皮尤

足球运动员

在2019年的女足世界杯上，大家可以关注一下20岁的皮尤，她在美国队司职前锋，捕捉战机的感觉极佳。

Mallory Pugh

Soccer Player

Keep an eye out for 20-year-old goal-¬scoring sensation Pugh on the front line of the U.S. team in 2019’s Women’s World Cup.

3. 科技界的新一年

亚马逊在另一个新行业中取得成功，埃隆·马斯克兑现诺言，唯独第一批5G手机令人失望。

3. The Year Ahead in Tech

Amazon succeeds in yet another industry, Elon Musk delivers on a promise, while the first wave of 5G phones disappoint.

5G手机未能引燃热情

它们会有温暖的手感，而且能在几秒钟内下载最新的蜘蛛侠电影。但真的有人想用2019年出现的新式5G手机吗？就像前几代无线技术刚刚出现时一样，最先运用5G技术的公司将受到电池寿命短和信号差的困扰。大家最好等一等。据说首部5G的iPhone手机将在2020年年底问世。

特斯拉交付售价3.5万美元的轿车

Model 3以廉价版特斯拉轿车的姿态出现——埃隆·马斯克宣称某款Model 3的售价最终将为3.5万美元（包括退税）。但高端Model 3层出不穷的制造问题推迟了后驱基本款的上市时间。生产问题不会在一夜间消失，但将在2019年得到缓解，首批定价约3.5万美元的Model 3也将交到那些幸运买家的手中。

亚马逊挑战谷歌和Facebook

全球两大广告公司Facebook和谷歌将迎来亚马逊这个强有力的对手——研究机构eMarketer指出，亚马逊的在线广告平台正在“飞速增长”。目前亚马逊占美国在线广告市场的4.2%（Facebook和谷歌的市场份额之和为58%），但到2019年年底，这个数字预计将翻番。

人们开始关心个人数据

没错，公司、窃贼和间谍都隐藏在大家的数据中。但你可以就此采取行动。2019年，消费者将开始用脚投票。不光是隐私高手，普通人也将使用广告屏蔽工具、VPN、计算机摄像头锁闭工具、加密和密码管理器。购买新玩具时，你会突然问道：怎么有人在利用，或者滥用我的数据？

5G Phones Fail to Ignite

They’ll be warm to the touch and download the latest Spider-Man movie in seconds. But will anybody actually want one of the new 5G-capable smartphones arriving in 2019? As with the debut of previous-generation wireless technology, early 5G adopters will be punished with short battery life and iffy reception. Better to wait it out. The first 5G iPhone is rumored for late 2020.

Tesla Delivers a $35,000 Car

The Model 3 was introduced as the so-called cheap Tesla with Elon Musk claiming a version would eventually be available for $35,000 (after tax credits). But persistent manufacturing problems blighting the upper-level Model 3 have delayed the rollout of the base rear-wheel-drive edition. Those production issues won’t disappear overnight, but they will be mitigated in 2019, and the first Teslas priced around $35,000 will be delivered to a lucky few customers.

Amazon Comes For Google And Facebook

The world’s biggest advertising companies, Facebook and Google, face a worthy adversary in Amazon whose online advertisement platform is undergoing a “meteoric rise,” according to research firm eMarketer. Amazon now represents 4.2% of the U.S. online advertising market (compared with 58% combined for Facebook and Google), but expect that to double by the end of the year.

People Start Caring About Their Data

Corporations, thieves, and spies are aslosh in your data, yes. But there is something you can do about it. 2019 is the year consumers begin to vote with their feet. Regular folks—not just privacy nuts—will adopt ad blockers, VPNs, computer webcam shutters, encryption, and password managers. Suddenly, when purchasing a new toy, you will ask: How am I being digitally used—or abused?

叫车服务领跑者上市

The Ride-hailing Front-runner Go Public

Uber和Lyft的IPO备受期待，两家公司也为此你争我夺，它们得努力工作，才能争取到购买其股票的投资者。两公司均尚未盈利——实际上，它们已经亏损好几年了。我们预计二者上市的情况不同——投资者对Uber的IPO将不太感冒，因为股价高而且Uber经常引发争议。同时，他们将把Lyft视为有吸引力的标的，原因是该公司正从比自己大得多的对手，也就是Uber的手中稳步夺取市场份额，同时拥有从较低基数起步并迅速在整个美国快速扩张的潜力。

As Uber and Lyft race to much-anticipated IPOs, they’ll have to work hard to sufficiently woo investors to own a piece of their business. Neither company has turned a profit—indeed, both have been losing money for years. But expect divergent outcomes: Investors will greet Uber’s IPO with a shrug owing to its high price and the company’s penchant for controversy. Meanwhile, Lyft will be viewed as an attractive proposition because of its steady gain of market share from its much-larger rival as well as its potential for rapid growth across the country from a smaller base.

脱离固网的现象正从有线电视延伸到有线网络。完全依靠移动互联网的人群所占的比重已从2013年的8%升至20%，固网用户占比则从70%降至65%。随着无线网络继续提速，家庭固网在人们眼中可能很快就会变得和座机一样过时。

Cord cutting is spreading beyond cable TV to wired Internet connections. The percentage of people relying solely on cellular Internet has risen to 20% from 8% in 2013 while the percentage with a wired Internet connection dropped to 65% from 70%. With faster wireless on the way, that home Internet line may soon seem as outdated as a pay phone.

4. 新橙则灵

放在Instagram上够显眼而且口味复杂，橙色葡萄酒将在2019年赢得饮酒者的青睐。

近几年桃红葡萄酒一直是葡萄酒界最热门（只是已经降温）的趋势。它还没有出现失势迹象，因为大多数预测都认为今后四年桃红葡萄酒的增长率将在1.5%到2%之间。即便如此，大家也都在寻找下一款桃红葡萄酒。我们预计2019年富含单宁的橙色葡萄酒将开始流行起来。这种葡萄酒并非桔子酿制，它的名字有点儿误导性，其酿造原料是发酵时破皮较晚的白葡萄。由于受到侍酒师和品酒行家的喜爱，橙色葡萄酒不断登陆美国各大城市的葡萄酒名录。

4. Orange is the New Rosé

Eminently Instagrammable and complex in taste, orange wines will win over drinkers in 2019.

Rosé has been the hottest (albeit chilled) wine trend over the past few years, with no sign of cooling off as most estimates predict pink wine to grow between 1.5% and 2% over the next four years. Even so, everyone is looking for the next rosé. In 2019, expect to be uncorking a bottle of tannin-rich orange wine. No, it’s not made from oranges. A bit of a misnomer, orange wines are made from white varietal grapes that keep their skins on longer during fermentation. They’ve been popping up on wine lists in major cities nationwide as they become favorites with sommeliers and oenophiles alike.

并购

2007年开业以来，快餐休闲食品连锁店Sweetgreen一直很风光，目前已经开店75家，同时获得了近3.29亿美元风投资金。随着上市传闻的出现，这家公司可能还有一条继续扩张的渠道，那就是让一个规模远超自己的品牌实施善意收购。考虑一下Chipotle吧。两家连锁机构都为自己采购当地烹饪原料而感到自豪，而且都在迅速进行全国性扩张，并推出据称健康的快餐。墨西哥菜连锁Chipotle几年前曾因不断出现食品安全事故而陷入困境。双方合并可以让Chipotle改头换面（并拥有新的收入来源），同时让Sweetgreen拿到成为沙拉界星巴克所需的资金。

Mergers

Sweetgreen has been on a tear since launching in 2007, with 75 locations and nearly $329 million in VC money raised to date. With murmurs of an IPO on the horizon, there could be another path to wider expansion: a friendly acquisition by a much larger brand. Consider Chipotle. Both chains pride themselves on locavore ingredient sourcing. And both have expanded nationally at a rapid clip while slinging fast food touted to be healthy. Chipotle has had a rough go of it the past few years, plagued by food safety incidents. A merger could provide the burrito chain with a fresh face (and revenue stream) and Sweetgreen with the capital to become the Starbucks of salads.

零售

Retail

2019年年初，由于西尔斯百货未能摆脱破产保护状态，亚马逊将出手买下几十家西尔斯和凯马特门店。这些门店将成为新的电子商务配送中心，其中一些还会成为亚马逊实体店。

In the wake of Sears Holdings’ failure to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in early 2019, Amazon.com will come in and buy dozens of Sears and Kmart locations that will serve as new e-commerce distribution hubs and, in some cases, Amazon-branded stores.

5. Facebook面临生死攸关的威胁

尽管连续两个季度创下收入新纪录，但从公关角度讲，马克·扎克伯格的这家大型社交媒体公司在2018年过的非常糟糕。如果不能迅速应对这些挑战，2019年Facebook的处境甚至可能变得更差。

5. Facebook Faces Existential Threats

Despite two record-setting quarters for revenue, Mark Zuckerberg’s social media behemoth had a very bad 2018 from a PR perspective. If Facebook doesn’t address these challenges quickly, 2019 could be even worse.

美国国会

Cambridge Analytica丑闻曝光后马克·扎克伯格出席了美国国会的听证会，而外界就听证会得出的结论之一就是，如果Facebook在保护用户数据方面仍然不上心，政客们看来就会在对其施加监管的问题上持更开放的态度。扎克伯格在华盛顿几乎没什么朋友——民主、共和两党都斥责Facebook对他们的竞选活动产生了不利影响，我们预计欧洲强大隐私法的美国版本将获得两党同时支持。政府监管再加上违反新法律遭受的罚款可能最终扼杀Facebook的增长前景。

公众信任

一连串坏消息已经有损Facebook在美国民众中的声誉。哈里斯民意调查机构最近代表《财富》杂志对2000多位美国人的调查表明，在保护用户数据方面，人们认为Facebook是最不值得信赖的大型科技公司。这样的印象很难改变。尽管斥巨资开展公共活动，但如果再次出现Cambridge Analytica级别的隐私丑闻，Facebook的品牌就可能遭受不可弥补的损害。

Instagram

科技行业分析师把Instagram视为Facebook旗下的招财童子以及未来增长的源泉，原因是这项核心社交业务看来已经在美国等地站稳了脚跟。虽然Facebook在2012年就收购了这家照片共享服务商，但Instagram的产品方向和文化一直牢牢控制在创始人凯文·希思特罗姆和迈克·克里格手中。这个强大二人组在2018年年底离去后，Facebook禁不住要插手Instagram的事务，此举激怒了40岁以下群体，也就是Instagram的主要用户群。

欧洲

这家社交媒体巨头由于数据问题在欧洲面临的罚金数额更为巨大。官方正在调查Facebook是否违反了欧盟《通用数据保护条例》，该条例旨在让用户更清晰地了解公司如何使用其数据。Facebook面临的罚款最多可能达到其全球收入的4%。

假新闻

虽然已经清理了2016年美国大选期间肆虐的大部分假消息，但Facebook的任务依然艰巨。各家新闻媒体和研究机构仍在挖掘该公司自动审核系统漏掉的误导或冒犯他人的内容。在这方面，人类编辑的作用就像试图阻止潮水的丹麦国王一样。除非Facebook显著改变自家平台传播内容的方式，同时调整业务模式，使之和用户利益一致，否则这个问题将一直存在。

Congress

One of the takeaways from the congressional hearings Mark Zuckerberg faced in the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal was that politicians appear more open to regulating Facebook if it continues with a lackadaisical approach to safeguarding user data. With few friends in Washington—both parties blame Facebook for negatively impacting their campaigns¬—¬expect a U.S. equivalent to Europe’s strong privacy laws to find bipartisan support. Government regulation, along with the fines that come with failing to comply with new laws, could end up stifling Facebook’s growth prospects.

Public Trust

Facebook’s string of bad news has hurt the company’s reputation with the American public. A recent Harris poll survey of over 2,000 Americans, conducted on behalf of Fortune, showed that people view Facebook as the least trustworthy major tech company when it comes to safeguarding user data. That image is not easily shaken. Despite a well-funded PR blitz, another privacy scandal on the scale of Cambridge Analytica could cause irreparable brand damage.

Instagram

Tech analysts consider Instagram to be Facebook’s golden child and a source of future growth as the core social networking service appears to have plateaued in places like the U.S. Even though Facebook acquired the photo-sharing app in 2012, the product direction and culture of Instagram had been firmly under the control of its founders Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger. With that powerful duo gone as of late 2018, Facebook won’t be able to resist meddling with the app, angering the key under-40 demographic that makes up the majority of its users.

Europe

The social media giant will face more significant penalties for its data blunders in Europe. It’s being scrutinized for potential violations of the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation, intended to provide more transparency to users about how companies are using their data. The company could face fines of up to 4% of its worldwide revenue.

Fake News

Although Facebook has cleaned its service of much of the fake news that ran rampant during the 2016 U.S. election campaign, it faces an uphill battle. Various media outlets and research groups are still digging up misleading or offensive content that manages to slip through Facebook’s automated systems. Human editors are as effective in solving the problem as a Danish king stopping the tide. Unless Facebook makes drastic changes in how content is propagated on its platform and shifts its business model to align with user interests, the problem will continue.

6. 谁的2019年会很棒？谁的会不那么棒？

2019年将（或无法）表现出色的公司和企业领导者。

6. Who’s Going to Have a Great and Not-So-Great Year

The companies and business leaders that will thrive (or not) in 2019.

呈上升趋势

· Tiktok（抖音国际版）。“成年人”开始使用这款令人上瘾的视频分享软件——其“有毒的”对口型视频已经成为青少年中间的一种现象。所以我们预计它会在2020年滑坡。

· 大麻二酚。这种大麻中的化学成分不会让人飘飘然，但有抗焦虑效果。我们预计它将会流行起来，并进入到很多东西中，比如鸡尾酒，再比如沙拉调料。

· 埃隆·马斯克。他的2019年不会有2000万美元的美国证监会罚款，不会有备受瞩目的分手，也不会有对洞穴救援者的污蔑。这应该算是成功的一年。

· 耐克。支持科林·卡佩尼克和塞琳娜·威廉姆斯等“维权型”运动员延续了这个品牌在18岁至40岁关键用户群体眼中的酷劲儿。

· 比特币。加密货币投机降温，但被淘汰的是其他加密货币。投资者认为比特币是较安全的储值手段。

· 燕麦奶。它的起泡效果比豆奶好，要担心的环境问题也较少。瑞典Oatly等品牌将在明年年底前席卷所有与之相配的咖啡店。

· 麻疹。美国爆发了21世纪最严重的麻疹疫情。不断壮大的反疫苗运动让美国西南部的一个主要大都会区损失惨重。

呈下降趋势

· 枪支。鉴于控枪法案刺激销售无望，随着本行业的“特朗普萧条”继续下去，一家大型枪械制造商将宣布破产。

· 大麻股。随着美国司法部开始加强联邦法律执行力度，对大麻股的胃口将变小。

· 韩流。事实证明，防弹少年团的2018年纽约市花旗球场演唱会是韩国流行音乐在美国的巅峰之作。

· 含酒精气泡水。啤酒厂商想借LaCroix风潮推出另类酒精饮料，但消费者很快就会发现它有多难喝。

· SUV。汽油价格上涨意味着更多购车者将选择结构更紧凑的跨界休旅车（CUV），而不是过去10年独领风骚的“烧油大王”。

· Match集团。和竞争对手Bumble以及Facebook约会app的官司将让Tinder、Match.com和OkCupid的母公司损失金钱以及市场份额。

· 苹果公司。它没能拿出更好的手机，这就是问题的一部分——2018年上市的iPhone X和iPhone XR是如此优秀，以至于苹果几乎没有动力来升级2019年推出的后续产品。

Trending up

· TikTok. “The adults” start using the addictive video-sharing app, a phenomenon among teens for its viral lip-synching videos. So expect it to trend down in 2020..

· CBD. This chemical component of marijuana doesn’t provide a high but may deliver antianxiety effects. Expect to see it popping up as an ingredient in everything from cocktails to salad dressing.

· Elon Musk. He’ll make it through 2019 without a $20 million SEC fine, a high-profile breakup, or insults directed at cave rescuers. That counts as a win.

· Nike. Its support for the activism of athletes like Colin Kaepernick and Serena Williams sustains the brand’s coolness with its key 18-to-40 demographic.

· Bitcoin. Crypto-speculation cools, but it’s alt coins that fall by the wayside. Investors see Bitcoin as the safer store of value.

· Oat Milk. It foams up better than soy milk and comes with fewer environmental concerns. Brands like Oatly, a Swedish export, will be in every coffee shop worth its beans by the end of the year.

· Measles. The U.S. has its worst measles outbreak of the 21st century. The growing might of the vocal anti-vaxxer movement takes a devastating toll on a major metropolitan area in the Southwest.

Trending Down

· Guns. With no chance of gun-control legislation to spark sales, a major gun manufacturer will declare bankruptcy as the industry’s Trump slump continues.

· Weed Stocks. The appetite for cannabis stocks abates as the Justice Department starts ramping up enforcement of federal laws.

· K-Pop. Boy band BTS’s 2018 show at New York’s Citi Field stadium proves to be the zenith for Korean pop in America.

· Hard Seltzer. Beverage makers tried to ride the LaCroix craze by offering an alcoholic variant, but consumers will realize how bad it tastes.

· SUVs. Higher gas prices will mean more car buyers choosing the more compact Crossover Utility Vehicle (CUV) instead of the gas guzzlers that have dominated the past decade.

· Match Group. A lawsuit with Bumble and Facebook’s dating app will take money and market share away from the parent company of Tinder, Match.com, and OkCupid.

· Apple. Its phones have never been better, and that’s part of the problem: 2018’s iPhone X and XR are so good that there’s little incentive to upgrade to their successor in 2019.

我们的2018年大预言表现如何。

准确命中：我们正确预测了经济繁荣的几个副作用，包括美联储可能在12个月内四次提高基准利率以及火爆的股市将再次引发IPO热潮。我们预计Lyft从出现声誉问题的Uber手中夺走的市场份额将超过预期。体育方面，我们预见到了冬奥会单板滑雪选手克洛伊·金以及NBA球员“希腊怪物”扬尼斯·阿德托昆博的统治级表现。

基本靠谱：《财富》杂志预计2018年的股市表现一般——到发稿时止，标普500指数上涨了6.6%。今年美国最高法院在商业方面有三项重大裁决，我们预见到了其中两项。我们还预测到新英格兰爱国者队、洛杉矶道奇队和克利夫兰骑士队将进入各自联赛的决赛。

预测失误：我们低估了油价，认为美国GDP增速不会达到3%。我们还预测慈善捐款将使沃伦·巴菲特的净资产缩水（结果正相反，他的资产增长了52亿美元）。另外，凯蒂·佩里、彼得·蒂尔等知名游客也没有像我们预测的那样登上太空。

预言团队：

Daniel Bentley, Erika Fry, Robert Hackett, Matt Heimer, Rachel King, Polina Marinova, McKenna Moore, Sy Mukherjee, Aaron Pressman, Lisa-Marie Segarra, Lucinda Shen, Jonathan Vanian, and Phil Wahba.（财富中文网）

本文最初刊登在2018年12月1日出版的《财富》杂志上。

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

7. How We Did in 2018 7.

On Target:

We correctly predicted several side effects of a boom, including that the Fed would raise its benchmark rate four times in 12 months and that a hot stock market would fuel an IPO resurgence. We forecast that Lyft would seize more market share than expected from reputationally challenged Uber. In sports, we called the ascendancy of Olympic snowboarder Chloe Kim and the NBA’s Giannis “the Greek Freak” Antetokounmpo.

In the Ballpark:

Fortune foresaw a just-okay year for the stock market: The S&P 500 was up 6.6% at press time. We called two of the year’s three biggest business-related Supreme Court rulings. And we correctly sent the Patriots, Dodgers, and Cavaliers to the finals of their leagues.

Off the Mark:

We lowballed oil prices, predicted that U.S. GDP wouldn’t crack 3%, and divined that charitable donations would shrink Warren Buffett’s net worth (instead, he got $5.2 billion richer). And contrary to our forecast, neither Katy Perry, Peter Thiel, nor any other celebrity tourist was blasted into space.

Crystal Ball Contributors:

Daniel Bentley, Erika Fry, Robert Hackett, Matt Heimer, Rachel King, Polina Marinova, McKenna Moore, Sy Mukherjee, Aaron Pressman, Lisa-Marie Segarra, Lucinda Shen, Jonathan Vanian, and Phil Wahba.

This article originally appeared in the December 1, 2018 issue of Fortune.