这两家快递公司正斗得你死我活

你可以凭借一群穿梭在车流中、带着炸玉米饼的骑手，建立一家市值数十亿美元的公司吗？硅谷的答案是当然可以。由算法和风投资本推动下的新一批快递公司的崛起，让人们比以往更容易在家中享受到热气腾腾的美餐（或其他东西）了。

2017年摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的一份预测认为，到2020年，餐厅总销售额可能有40%都来自送餐业务。而就科技和物流效率的关注程度而言，这项业务还处于初期阶段。Cowen & Co.公司的分析师托马斯·钱皮恩表示：“该领域的创新空间可能比乍看之下还要更广阔。”

快递领域的竞争者很多，亚马逊（Amazon）、GrubHub和即将上市的Uber从收入和市场份额来说都属于巨头。不过旧金山的两家私有公司DoorDash和Postmates却建立了激烈的竞争关系，以至于有时看起来他们已经专注于彼此争斗而忽视了业内的其他竞争对手。

今年3月，DoorDash宣布将在今年内进行5.35亿美元的投资，并在1,000座新城市开拓业务。今年7月，Postmates在超过100座城市开展了服务；第二周，DoorDash的首席执行官托尼·徐就宣布还要扩大100座城市的业务。今年8月，DoorDash宣布了新一轮2.5亿美元的融资；第二周，Postmates的首席执行官巴斯蒂安·莱曼就以3亿美元融资进行回应，还谈到了首次公开募股。

今年4月曾有报道称两位首席执行官已经有过合并的讨论，但最终却没有实现。如今，两家公司都认为自身是市场领导者，尽管他们对于市场的定义却不一样。DoorDash专注于送餐业务，也在考虑更多选择，而Postmates什么都送，只是把重点放在送餐上。两家公司都对互相比较热情不大。

谁将赢得下一轮对决？答案部分取决于与国内连锁店保持高利润的独家合作伙伴关系。由于手握Wendy’s和Cheesecake Factory的合作，DoorDash似乎占得了上风。徐对《财富》杂志表示：“DoorDash如今是该领域里增长最快的公司”，他指的是支付量上。

不过，曾当过拳击手的莱曼于今年9月在CNBC上表示：“任何时候跑得最快的那辆赛车都未必是最后比赛的赢家。”

做好大干一场的准备吧。（财富中文网）

本文的另一个版本登载于2018年12月1日刊的《财富》杂志，标题为“快递公司的拳击赛已经拉开帷幕”。

译者：严匡正

Can you build a billion-dollar business on the backs of cyclists weaving through traffic with tacos in tow? According to Silicon Valley, absolutely. The rise of a new breed of delivery company, fueled by algorithms and venture capital, is making it easier than ever to get a hot meal (or anything else) brought to your door.

Direct delivery of food could devour 40% of total restaurant sales, or $220 billion, by 2020, according to a 2017 Morgan Stanley estimate. And it’s still early days as far as technology and logistical efficiency are concerned. “There may be room for more innovation than appears at first blush,” says Cowen & Co. analyst Thomas Champion.

The list of delivery contenders is long, and several—like Amazon, GrubHub, and IPO-bound Uber—are large, as measured by both revenue and market share. But two private companies in San Francisco, DoorDash and Postmates, have established a rivalry so intense that it sometimes seems they’re ignoring the rest of the field as they exchange blows.

In March, DoorDash announced a $535 million investment and vowed support for 1,000 new cities by year’s end. In July, Postmates activated service in more than 100 cities; the next week, DoorDash CEO Tony Xu promised hundreds more. In August, DoorDash announced another $250 million fundraising; the following month, Postmates CEO Bastian Lehmann bounced back with $300 million of his own and talk of an IPO.

In April the CEOs were reported to have engaged in merger discussions, but it didn’t come to pass. Today both consider themselves to be market leaders, though they disagree on the definition of the market. DoorDash is focused on food but mulling more options; Postmates will deliver anything but emphasizes food. Neither is keen on comparisons to the other.

Who will win the next round of this bout? The answer in part depends on securing lucrative exclusive partnerships with national chains. With Wendy’s and the Cheesecake Factory in its corner, DoorDash appears to have the upper hand. “DoorDash is now the fastest-growing company in this space,” Xu tells Fortune, pointing to its payments volume.

Still, “the fastest car at any moment in time may not win the race,” Lehmann, ever the pugilist, said on CNBC in September.

Get ready to rumble.

A version of this article appears in the December 1, 2018 issue of Fortune with the headline “Punches, Delivered.”