今年奥斯卡最佳影片花落谁家？

今年的奥斯卡奖评比是近年来最开放的一次比赛，多年来，最佳影片的桂冠都由独立电影界的宠儿斩获，今年一些大制作也终于能参与该奖项的角逐。

一直跟踪预测学院奖的Gold Derby根据评论家的选择，列出了六部赔率在10-1以上的电影。由布拉德利·库珀和Lady Gaga主演的电影《一个明星的诞生》（A Star Is Born）在网站30名评选人中得到了21人的青睐。但他们信心不够坚定，把这部影片的赔率设为13-2，仅略高于《罗马》（Roma），这部由阿方索·卡隆执导、致敬他在墨西哥童年时光的影片赔率是15-2。

也许今年的获奖影片会是很多人都看过的电影。《一个明星的诞生》全球票房已经超过3.88亿美元。《罗马》仅在少数影院上映，以确保它有资格竞争奥斯卡奖，但在全球拥有超过1.37亿订阅用户的Netflix正在大力推广该电影。奥斯卡将于1月22日公布提名，颁奖典礼定于2月24日举行。

其他有大量观影基础又很可能获得提名的影片包括全球票房13.5亿美元的超级英雄大片《黑豹》（Black Panther）和票房7.025亿美元的弗雷迪·默丘里传记片《波希米亚狂想曲》（Bohemian Rhapsody）。去年大奖得主《水形物语》（The Shape of Water）全球票房为1.952亿美元，而且大部分票房都是在得到奥斯卡提名后获得的。

“看到像黑豹这样的电影受到讨论让我非常放心，”全美影院协会研究主任菲尔·康特里诺说。“这表明奥斯卡与付费观众的评价更趋一致了。”

异彩纷呈

2018年12月底出现了两个潜在的竞争者：关于迪克·切尼的讽刺性传记电影《副总统》（Vice）和讲述最高法院法官鲁思·金斯伯格早年故事的《性之基础》（On the Basis of Sex）。从商业角度来看，此类小投资电影能从高调获得提名中获得最大收益，因为许多电影迷往往是在提名时才第一次听说这部电影。

1月6日，NBC直播了好莱坞外国记者协会（Foreign Press Association）颁发的金球奖，比赛就此开锣。但是随着本月好莱坞的商业团体开始颁发各种奖项，影迷将更清楚地了解哪些影片更受青睐。粉丝们尤其应该关注美国演员工会（Screen Actors Guild）的动态，因为它代表了学院奖评选中最大的投票群体，该奖项将于1月27日公布。英国电影和电视艺术学院（BAFTA）2月初颁发的BAFTA奖也颇具影响力。

《一个明星的诞生》有多项利好，该影片由业界最受欢迎的领军人物之一库珀自导自演，电影原声也大受欢迎。这部影片讲的是娱乐行业，奥斯卡评委——电影艺术与科学学院（Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences）的成员似乎总能被这个话题吸引。它还是华纳兄弟出品的大制片厂电影。上一部荣获最佳影片的大制片厂电影也是华纳兄弟的作品——2012年的《逃离德黑兰》（Argo）。

《罗马》面临的障碍

相比之下，《罗马》仅在几家电影院上映，而电影院是电影爱好者的首选观影场所。虽然该片巧妙地采用黑白色调拍摄，影片导演还曾凭借《地心引力》（Gravity）获得2013年奥斯卡奖，但这部电影需要突破好莱坞与Netflix间的龃龉，还要克服这家流媒体公司不愿意在院线大范围发行该电影的问题。

《黑豹》有自己的优势。为了回应#OscarsSoWhite（#奥斯卡好白）等社交媒体运动的批评，学院一直在招募更多的少数族裔加入。学院于2018年12月宣布非洲裔美国喜剧演员凯文·哈特将主持奥斯卡后却遇上了麻烦，因为凯文之前在推特上发表的恐同言论被网友翻了出来，他不得不辞去该职。

《黑豹》或将成为第一部获得奥斯卡最佳影片提名的超级英雄电影。影片虚构了一个非洲国家，演员大部分都是黑人，主角是一个超级英雄，奋起保护该国的自然资源不被开采。

观众最爱

《黑豹》发行方华特迪士尼公司将该片打造为漫威宇宙的一部分，迪士尼正在为《黑豹》大力争取奖项，还在西好莱坞举办的一项活动中宴请了100多名学院成员。公司首席执行官鲍勃·艾格甚至请和这部电影毫无关系的奥普拉·温弗瑞为该片站台。

如果《黑豹》能出现在获奖名单中，会让迪士尼的形象在电影制片人中熠熠生辉，可能还有助于提高奥斯卡颁奖典礼的收视率。典礼由迪士尼的ABC频道播出，近年来遭遇收视率下滑困境。学院还曾考虑推出最受欢迎电影的奖项来提高收视。

B. Riley FBR Inc.的分析师巴顿·克罗克特说：“如果他们能认可一部具有这种政治和文化影响力的影片，会是件大好事。这对整个行业来说都大有裨益。”（财富中文网）

译者：Agatha

This year’s Oscar race is one of the most wide open in recent memory, giving some big-studio blockbusters a shot at the best-picture crown after years of victories by indie darlings.

Gold Derby, which tracks the Academy Awards race, lists six films at 10-1 or better, based on picks by critics. A Star Is Born, the drama starring Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga, is favored by 21 of 30 at the website. But they lack conviction, putting the odds at 13-2, a hair above Roma, director Alfonso Cuaron’s tribute to his childhood in Mexico, at 15-2.

This may also be a year that the winner is a film a lot of people have seen. A Star Is Born has taken in more than $388 million in ticket sales worldwide. Roma, which is playing in a handful of theaters to ensure it can compete for an Oscar, is being promoted heavily on Netflix, which has more than 137 million subscribers worldwide. The nominations will be announced Jan. 22, with the Oscar ceremony scheduled for Feb. 24.

Other widely seen films which a strong chance at a nomination include the superhero blockbuster Black Panther, with $1.35 billion in worldwide ticket sales, and the Freddie Mercury biopic Bohemian Rhapsody, at $702.5 million. Last year’s winner, The Shape of Water, took in $195.2 million globally—much of it after capturing the Oscar nomination.

“To see a movie like Black Panther in the conversation is very reassuring,” said Phil Contrino, director of research for the National Association of Theatre Owners. “It shows that the Oscars are more in tune with what the paying public is responding to.”

On Your Mark

Two potential contenders opened in late December 2018: Vice, a satirical biopic about Dick Cheney, and On the Basis of Sex, about the early years of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. From a business standpoint, smaller films like these benefit most from high-profile nominations, with many movie fans often hearing about them for the first time.

The race kicks off Jan. 6 when the Hollywood Foreign Press Association hands out the Golden Globe Awards on NBC. But cinephiles will get more clarity on the favorites later in the month when Hollywood trade groups begin bestowing their honors. In particular, fans should track the Screen Actors Guild, which represents the largest voting bloc in the academy and announces its winners on Jan. 27. The BAFTA Awards, bestowed in early February by the British Academy of Film & Television Arts, are also influential.

A Star Is Born has a lot going for it, including a directing and starring role for Cooper, one of the industry’s most-popular leading men, as well as a hit soundtrack. It’s about the entertainment business, a subject that always seems to appeal to the Oscars voters, members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. It’s also a major studio production—from Warner Bros. The last major-studio film to be crowned best picture was also from Warner Bros.—Argo in 2012.

Roma Hurdles

Roma, by contrast, has appeared in just a few theaters, the preferred venue for movie lovers. Although artfully shot in black and white by a director who won the Oscar for 2013’s Gravity, the film would need to overcome Hollywood’s uneasy relationship with Netflix and the streaming service’s unwillingness to distribute its movies widely in theaters.

Black Panther has its own momentum. The academy has been recruiting more minorities in response to criticism such as the #OscarsSoWhite social-media campaign. The organization found itself in trouble in December 2018 after announcing that African-American comedian Kevin Hart would host the show, only to have him step down after being called out for homophobic comments he made previously on Twitter.

Black Panther is in line to become the first superhero film to get nominated for best picture. It stars a largely black cast and features a superhero who rises to prevent the exploitation of natural resources in a fictional African nation.

Audience Favorite

Walt Disney Co., which released the film as part of its Marvel universe, is campaigning heavily for an award, including hosting more than 100 academy members at an event in West Hollywood. Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger even asked Oprah Winfrey, who had nothing to do with the picture, to come show her support.

Having Black Panther in the mix would burnish Disney’s image with filmmakers and also likely help the TV ratings for the Oscar ceremony. It’s carried on the company’s ABC network and has suffered a loss of viewers in recent years. The academy has flirted with a most-popular-film category to boost the audience.

“If they were to recognize a film with that kind of political and cultural impact, that would be tremendous,” said Barton Crockett, an analyst with B. Riley FBR Inc. “It would be very good for the industry.”