李开复谈人工智能：15年后自动操作将取代四成工作岗位

一位人工智能专家兼风险投资人预测，自动化将导致劳动力市场出现重大变化。

李开复今年1月6日在哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）的《60分钟》（60 Minutes）节目上接受斯科特·佩利采访时表示，他认为世界上40％的工作将被能够自动完成工作的机器人取代。他说，蓝领和白领岗位都将受到影响，但司机受到的影响可能最大。

“私人司机、卡车司机以及其他任何以开车为生的人，他们的职业将在15至25年内遭遇严重挑战。”他在采访中说。“像厨师、服务员等看起来有点复杂的工作，很多事情也将实现自动化。”

李开复这种观点不是最近才出现的。许多支持人工智能和自动化的人认为它们会对劳动力产生根本性的改变。但是，其中也有很多人相信，虽然会有一些工作受到影响，但人类会因为人工智能的出现找到新机会，走上新岗位。

埃伦·马斯克曾经警告人类要警惕人工智能的力量，包括马斯克在内有越来越多的反对者担心自动化会对全人类造成威胁，尤其是对低收入劳动者产生较大影响。

尽管如此，包括李开复在内的许多人都认为人工智能的发展及其对社会的影响并未放缓。他将人工智能和历史上的重大创新（如蒸汽机和电）类比，称人类因为类似创新受到影响，但“已经熬过去了”。但他警告说，和其它创新相比，人工智能对人类的影响来得更加迅速。（财富中文网）

译者：Agatha

An artificial intelligence expert and venture capitalist predicts automation will cause major changes in the workforce.

Speaking to CBS News’ Scott Pelley in an interview for 60 Minutes on January 6, Kai Fu Lee said that he believes 40% of the world’s jobs will be replaced by robots capable of automating tasks. He said that both blue collar and white collar professions will be affected, but he believes those who drive for a living could be most affected.

“Chauffeurs, truck drivers, anyone who does driving for a living—their jobs will be disrupted more in the 15-25 year time frame,” he said in the interview. “Many jobs that seem a little bit complex, chef, waiter, a lot of things will become automated.”

Lee’s comments are not necessarily new. Many who support artificial intelligence and automation believe that they can fundamentally change the workforce. But many of those people also believe that while some jobs could be affected, humans will find new opportunities surrounding artificial intelligence and take on new professions.

A growing number of detractors—including Elon Musk, who has warned about the power of artificial intelligence—worry that automation could disrupt entire communities and disproportionately affect low-income workers.

Still, many, including Lee, believe there’s no slowing down artificial intelligence and its impact on society. And he compared artificial intelligence to major innovations in history, like the steam engine and electricity, saying that humans were affected and have “gotten over it.” But he cautioned that artificial intelligence and its impact will hit us much sooner than those other innovations did.