全球化下一阶段：廉价劳动力出局，高端人才胜出

全球化已死？

半个多世纪以来，制造业创建了全球供应链，在成本（工资）最低的地方采购商品，销往需求最高的地方。这种趋势促进了全球经济增长，推动许多发展中国家（尤其是中国）崛起，同时实现了史上最大规模的人口脱贫。（但也引发了发达国家的政治抵制。）

然而，这种趋势在过去十年已经出现逆转。麦肯锡全球研究所（McKinsey Global Institute）今天早上发布的一项新研究——本刊“CEO日报”（CEO Daily）栏目得以先睹为快——表明，跨境贸易产品占全球产品总量的比率急剧下降，从2007年的28.1％跌至2017年的22.5％。部分原因是政治上对贸易的抵制，但也说明中国和其他发展中国家消费需求的增长（他们购买本国商品的份额在增多）和国内供应链的改善。

但问题在于：虽然货物贸易占产品总量的份额正在下降，但服务贸易却在快速上升。根据国家统计数据，服务仅占各类贸易的23％。但麦肯锡的报告表明，这些数字剔除了服务贸易中非常重要的一些领域，如果包括在内，服务贸易占比将达到一半。

“全球化并没有消亡；不过是变了，”麦肯锡合伙人、该研究所的负责人苏珊·隆德（Susan Lund）表示。

这将对全球经济产生重要影响。其中包括：

——对外贸易将不再依靠低工资推动增长。该报告称，仅有不到两成的贸易是基于劳动力套利。

——知识型贸易正在快速发展。对研发、强势品牌、知识产权等无形资本的投资在贸易中的占比翻了一番，从5.5％增加到13.1％。

这些趋势对公共政策的影响十分明显。对实物贸易的限制正在打响最后一战。试图限制知识产权和无形资产的贸易是白费心机。下一轮全球化进程中，拥有最优秀人才而非最低工资的国家将占据上风。（财富中文网）

译者：Agatha

Is globalization dead?

For more than half a century, manufacturers created global supply chains that sourced goods wherever costs (wages) were lowest and sold them wherever demand was greatest. The trend drove world growth, powered the rise of many developing countries (particularly China), and resulted in the largest alleviation of poverty in world history. (It also helped fuel a political backlash in developed countries.)

In the last decade, however, that trend has reversed. A new study out this morning from the McKinsey Global Institute—CEO Daily got an early look—finds the share of goods produced around the world that is traded across borders has fallen sharply, from 28.1% in 2007 to 22.5% in 2017. That may partly reflect the political backlash against trade. But it also reflects rising consumer demand in China and other developing countries (they are buying more of their own goods), as well as improved domestic supply chains in those countries.

But here’s the rub: While trade in goods is declining as a share of output, trade in services is soaring. National statistics only attribute about 23% of all trade to services. But the McKinsey report says those numbers exclude some very significant aspects of services trade which, if included, would make it half of all trade.

“Globalization isn’t dead; it has just changed,” says Susan Lund, a partner at McKinsey and leader of the institute.

That has some important implications for the global economy. Among them:

— Foreign trade is no longer being driven by the search for low wages. Less than 20% of trade is based on labor-cost arbitrage, the report says.

— Knowledge-based trade is soaring. Investment in intangible assets—R&D, strong brands, intellectual property—has doubled as a share of trade, from 5.5% to 13.1%.

The implications for public policy are clear. Restricting trade in physical goods is fighting the last war. And attempting to restrict trade in intellectual property and intangibles is a fool’s errand. In the next round of globalization, it will be countries with the best talent, not those with the lowest wages, that will have the upper hand.