英国脱欧可能达不成协议？高盛认为几率越来越大

本周二，英国议会投票结果出炉，议员提出了不可能的要求，高盛认为英国脱欧达不成协议的可能性越来越大。

现在高盛预测“达不成协议”的可能性为15%，而不是之前的10%，同时将取消脱欧的可能性从40%降到35%。如果英国脱欧达不成协议，3月29日将出现无序退出，很可能导致供应链中断，包括食品和药品短缺等。

以下是高盛调整英国脱欧几率的原因。

英国议会成员对脱欧计划进行了两处重大改动，并以微弱多数通过了修正案：第一条是不应出现“无协议”脱欧的情况，另一条则要求首相特蕾莎·梅和欧洲官员达成的协议中删除有争议的“爱尔兰保障方案”。特蕾莎·梅支持第二条修正案。

协议里的保障方案部分主要希望避免在北爱尔兰（英国的一部分）和周围的爱尔兰共和国（属于欧盟）领土之间出现硬边界。目前边境比较松散，还穿过了百姓的房产，软边界稳定是维护地区和平的关键。根据当前的脱欧协议，如果到2020年年底（脱欧过渡期结束时）无法达成英国-欧盟海关协定，北爱尔兰将与欧盟单一市场保持“监管联盟”，直到海关协定达成。

一些议员认为此举有害，尤其是支持特蕾莎·梅政府的北爱尔兰民主统一党成员，他们认为北爱尔兰与英国其他地方的待遇不同。而且在他们看来，如果最终达不成海关协定，理论上会威胁联合王国统一。欧盟则坚持支持保障方案，否则可能还得重新讨论硬边界。

所以特蕾莎·梅将回到欧盟，要求取消保障方案，代之以“替代安排”。欧盟一再表示不会重新谈判协议，周二投票后几分钟后重申了这一点。

至于不具约束力的修正案，即不可在达不成协议时脱欧，唯一的办法是取消脱欧，要么就得让多数人支持当前看来不大可能达成的协议。

另一项修正案本可迫使英国政府向欧盟要求推迟脱欧，但议员投票并未通过，可能妨碍了脱欧协议达成。

不过高盛仍然认为，脱欧有50%的可能推迟。（财富中文网）

译者：Pessy

审校：夏林

Goldman Sachs thinks a no-deal Brexit is more likely following Tuesday’s votes in the U.K. Parliament, where lawmakers demanded proven impossibilities.

The bank now puts the likelihood of “no deal” at 15% rather than 10%, and reduced the likelihood of Brexit being cancelled from 40% to 35%. A no-deal Brexit would see the U.K. crash out of the EU on March 29th with sudden effect, most likely leading to significant supply chain disruptions, including food and medicine shortages.

Here’s why Goldman has shifted its odds.

Members of Parliament narrowly voted through two significant amendments to the Brexit plan: one says there should be no “no deal” Brexit, while the other demands the removal of the contentious “Irish backstop” from the withdrawal agreement struck between Prime Minister Theresa May and her European counterparts. May herself backed the latter amendment.

The backstop element of the deal aims to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland (part of the U.K.) and the Republic of Ireland (part of the EU) that surrounds it. The border is currently very porous, to the extent that it runs through people’s properties, and maintaining the soft border is seen as crucial to maintaining peace in the region. The current withdrawal agreement states that, if there is no U.K.-EU customs deal by the end of 2020 (when the Brexit transitional period ends,) then Northern Ireland would maintain “regulatory alignment” with the EU single market until the customs deal is concluded.

This is seen as toxic by some lawmakers—particularly those in the Northern Irish DUP party, which is propping up May’s government—as it would see the province treated differently from the rest of the U.K. and, in their eyes, theoretically threaten the unity of the United Kingdom if no customs deal is ultimately struck. The EU insists on the backstop because, without it, a hard border might have to return.

So now May is going back to the EU with a demand that the backstop be cut out of the agreement, to be replaced by unspecified “alternative arrangements.” The EU has repeatedly said the agreement is not open for renegotiation, and it reiterated that point mere minutes after Tuesday’s vote.

As for the non-binding amendment saying there cannot be a no-deal Brexit, the only way to put that into effect would be to cancel Brexit, or to get a majority to back the existing deal—which seems deeply unlikely at this point.

A no-deal Brexit might have been staved off by another amendment that would have compelled the British government to ask the EU for an extension of the Brexit date, but lawmakers rejected it.

Goldman still reckons there’s a 50% chance of Brexit being delayed.