摩根大通CEO论经济: 美国和中国都不会有事

不久前，摩根大通的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙发出了他的年度致股东信。他像往常一样介绍了摩根大通的业务，并对金融监管和政府政策进行了批评。通读这封95页的信件后，一个与众人相悖的主题脱颖而出，那就是和许多知名经济学家及公司高管不同，戴蒙认为美国经济在2019年或者不久之后不会出现衰退，而且他还觉得人们或许应该更乐观一些。

戴蒙写道：“当然，我们对当前的问题全神贯注，而它们往往会掩盖我们在全球层面取得的进展。我们不应该忽视那些有利信号。”（他看到的令人鼓舞的迹象包括“强劲的美国经济”、全球经济继续增长、贸易谈判有可能“顺利完成”，以及巴西等此前走势乏力的市场转头向上。）

为了更清楚地表达自己的观点，戴蒙指出了一个要点，那就是摩根大通考虑到最坏情况绝不意味着这种情况可能会出现。他强调说：“我们为衰退做准备，但我们并不是预测它的到来。”

他还附加了一条说明，即下次出现衰退的原因可能跟以前不同，这让人们很难发现相关迹象。戴蒙写道：“下一次的诱因或许就是负面因素累计的结果，也就是众所周知的压死骆驼的最后一根稻草。”

在这封信中，戴蒙用了五个理由来解释为何自己不相信经济衰退就在眼前。

收益率曲线倒挂没关系

收益率曲线最近（的暂时）倒挂让投资者在过去几周担心不已。这种现象是指美国短期国债收益率超过了期限较长的国债，或者说10年期国债。它表明投资者担心今后的经济不如现在，这在历史上一直是衰退的先兆。

但这次戴蒙并不认同这样的观点。他写道：“我不会去看收益率曲线，也不会认为其潜在倒挂发出的信号和以往相同。”戴蒙回顾了2008年金融危机爆发后美联储等机构采取的“极端”刺激措施。“全世界的央行和监管部门对市场干预的太多了，因此没有办法彻底弄清楚它们对收益率曲线的影响。”

人们也许低估了增长率

虽然经济学家和投资者基本上都接受了经济放缓的说法（他们认为危机后的增长有可能已经是强弩之末），但戴蒙认为他们可能过于悲观。

他在信中写道：“人们也许过于坚信增长将放缓以及通胀率将下滑。”他还指出，“就业和工资仍然在上升。”

他还说，毕竟，“经济复苏一直非常缓慢，而且受工资需求和供给有限影响，周期末段通胀率的‘正常’上升仍然有可能出现。目前还没有看到这样的局面，但我不会排除这种可能性。”意思就是，不要马上就断定晚周期增长不会爆发。

市场恐慌过度

在信中，戴蒙用了整整一个章节来剖析2018年年底的股市大跌，它让标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数此前一年的涨幅迅速化为乌有。

虽然戴蒙确实警告说这样的投资者恐慌情绪可能再次出现并让市场进一步震荡，但他的结论相当肯定——这是“过度反应”。

实际上，他重复了一长串积极的经济指标——就业、工资和GDP继续增长；金融市场“健康”；消费者和企业信心“很强”（尽管低于历史最高点）；“消费者的资产负债以及信贷情况相当好”；以及美国各个城市的住宅供应都处于紧张状态（“这最终会成为增长动力”）。

正因为如此，戴蒙提醒读者在股市上操作时要有所保留，并且理性行动：“市场反应并不总是确切地体现实际经济状况，因此，决策者甚至企业都不应该对其反应过度。”

中国经济无大碍

虽然中美贸易谈判的每一丝风吹草动都牵动着公司和投资者的心，而且他们也无法确定两国能否达成协议，但戴蒙并不感到紧张。他写道：“我们相信最终形成公平贸易协议的可能性很高。”当然，他也指出，如果谈不成，就会产生“严重的影响”，但没有什么是中国对付不了的：“中国可以应付许多严峻局势，因为和发达的民主国家不同，中国可以同时对经济进行宏观管理和微观管理，并且非常迅速地采取行动。”

戴蒙还认为发展中国家已经变得更加稳定，从而降低了自身债务风险：“在新兴市场，国家和企业都比以前成长了很多，也强大了很多。”

债务情况还不算太坏

戴蒙还认为，不断上升的美国预算赤字及其引发衰退的潜力不足为虑：“美国的债务规模正在快速上升，但并未达到危险水平。”

他更担心自己所说的“影子银行”，或者说非银行借贷的增长，特别是抵押贷款和学生贷款，以及风险较高的杠杆贷款。不过，戴蒙写道：“我们认为这样的规模和质量不会在金融系统中造成系统性问题。目前的水平依然可控。”

戴蒙的结论是：“如今的情况绝非2008年能比。”

为大家的利益着想，希望他是对的。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

Jamie Dimon released his annual letter recently, offering his usual update on JPMorgan Chase’s activities along with a critique of financial regulation and government policy. Reading through the letter, which runs 95 printed pages, one contrarian theme stands out: Unlike many prominent economists and executives, Dimon doesn’t see a recession coming in 2019 or soon after—and he thinks people should probably be a bit more optimistic.

“Of course, we hyper-focus on today’s problems, and they often overshadow the progress we are making across the globe,” Dimon writes. “We should not overlook the positive signs.” (Among the encouraging signs he observes: a “strong U.S. economy,” continued global growth, the likelihood that trade negotiations will be “properly resolved” and the upturn in previously struggling markets such as Brazil.)

Making his view extra clear, Dimon draws an important distinction—that just because JPMorgan accounts for a worst-case scenario doesn’t mean it believes it’s likely to happen. “We are prepared for—though we are not predicting—a recession,” he emphasizes.

He does issue one caveat: That the next recession may not happen for the same reasons as recessions in the past, making it difficult to spot the signs. “Next time,” he writes, “the cause may be just the cumulative effect of negative factors—the proverbial last straw on the camel’s back.”

Still, here are five clues Dimon drops in his letter for why he doesn’t think a recession is imminent.

The Inverted Yield Curve Doesn’t Matter

For the past couple of weeks, investors have been fretting over the recent (and temporary) inversion of the yield curve, a phenomenon in which short-term Treasury bonds pay out higher interest rates than their longer-term counterparts, the 10-year Treasury. It’s a sign that investors are worried the economy will be worse in the future than it is today, and historically has been a consistent harbinger of recession.

But Dimon isn’t buying it this time. “I would not look at the yield curve and its potential inversion as giving the same signals as in the past,” he writes, citing “extreme” stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve and others following the 2008 financial crisis. “There has simply been too much interference in the global markets by central banks and regulators to understand its full effect on the yield curve.”

People Might Be Underestimating Growth

Though economists and investors have largely resigned themselves to a slowdown in the economy (thinking that the post-crisis expansion has likely run its course), Dimon thinks they might be overly pessimistic.

“There may be too much certainty that growth will be slow and inflation subdued,” he writes in his letter, noting that “employment and wages continue to go up.”

After all, he continues, “This has been a very slow recovery, and it is possible that the ‘normal’ increase of inflation late in the cycle, due to wage demands and limited supply, can still happen. We don’t see it today, but I would not rule it out.” In other words, don’t count out a late-cycle growth spurt just yet.

Market Fears Are Overblown

Dimon spends an entire section of the letter dissecting the stock market plunge at the end of 2018, which rapidly erased all of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gains for the year.

Though he does warn that such investor panic could return and bring more market volatility, Dimon comes to a fairly certain conclusion: It was an “overreaction.”

Indeed, he repeats a laundry list of positive economic indicators—continued growth of employment, wages, and GDP; “healthy” financial markets; “strong” consumer and business confidence (even if below all-time highs); the fact that “the consumer balance sheet and credit are in rather good shape;” and tight housing supply in cities across the U.S. (“which should eventually be a tailwind”).

That’s why Dimon reminds his readers to take stock moves with a grain of salt, and to act rationally: “Market reactions do not always accurately reflect the real economy, and, therefore, policymakers and even companies should not overreact to them.”

China Is Going to Be Just Fine

While companies and investors have been hanging on to every bit of news coming out of the trade talks between the U.S. and China, wondering whether the two sides can come to an agreement, Dimon isn’t sweating it. “We believe the odds are high that a fair trade deal will eventually be worked out,” he writes. Of course, if that fails, there will be “serious repercussions,” he notes—but nothing China can’t handle: “China can deal with many serious situations because, unlike developed democratic nations, it can both macromanage and micromanage its economy and move very fast.”

Dimon also thinks developing nations have become more stable, making their debt loads less of a risk: “The emerging markets, both countries and companies, are much bigger and stronger than they were in the past,” Dimon writes.

Debt Isn’t Too Bad Yet

Dimon also waved off fears about the growing U.S. budget deficit, and its potential to cause a recession: “America’s debt level is rapidly increasing but is not at the danger level.”

He’s more concerned about what he calls “shadow banking,” or an increase in lending by non-banks, particularly mortgages and student loans as well as higher-risk leveraged loans. Still, “we don’t think this is yet of the size or quality to cause systemic issues in the financial system,” Dimon writes. “At this level, it is still a manageable issue.”

The bottom line: “Today is nothing like 2008,” Dimon writes.

For everyone’s sake, let’s hope he’s right.