进口商品关税大涨，沃尔玛已做好“过冬”准备

沃尔玛已经升级了其供应商每天使用的供应信息网络，以便于他们及时上报受中国进口商品关税上涨造成的成本增加情况。

此举表明，作为全球最大零售商、每年要销售几十亿美元中国进口商品的沃尔玛，现在也不得不在日常运营中考虑关税的现实压力。在前一段的贸易战中，美国虽然对中国商品加征了几轮关税，但并没有给沃尔玛造成什么实际影响。不过现在情况不同了，美国最近先是对箱包、家具等价值2000亿美元的中国商品加征了25%的关税，然后又启动对服装、鞋类和电子产品等价值3000亿美元的中国商品加征关税。沃尔玛在贸易战中已经无法再置身事外。

根据彭博社获得的沃尔玛公司的内部备忘录和电子邮件显示，沃尔玛从一年前开始，启用了一个名叫“成本变化预案”的内部工具，目前已经推广到了各个产品类别。

这个在线应用此前从未被公开报道过。据传，它取代了以往必须由供应商手动填写的Excel表格，供应商可以更快速便捷地从菜单里选择成本变动的原因，比如关税、劳动力、运输和原材料等等。

关税可能“抹去”零售利润

美国的开学季和圣诞购物季已经不远了，然而中国进口产品关税问题的不确定性，却给正在与亚马逊和塔吉特百货等竞争对手角力的沃尔玛带来了额外的压力。

据Evercore ISI公司的分析师格雷格·梅利奇估计，25%的关税一旦付诸实施，可能会导致美国物价全面上涨，甚至有可能“抹去”美国各大零售商的利润增长。

沃尔玛的首席执行官董明伦在上周表示：“我希望这个问题能够得到解决，但它显然不是我们可以控制的。”

该工具是干什么用的？

该工具的名字“成本变化预案”也体现了零售业供应链的现实格局——供应商设定特定商品的成本，沃尔玛则控制商品上架后的零售价格。当供应商提高了商品成本，零售商就必须决定，对这部分上涨的成本是自己消化，还是传导给消费者。前者肯定会影响利润，后者则会影响销量，因为消费者可能会选择到其他地方去购买。

彭博社获得的文件显示，沃尔玛以前的成本变动表格按产品类别又分成好几类，而且不允许供应商选择关税作为成本上涨的理由。不过相比于其他成本变动原因，目前尚不清楚供应商们是否已经频繁选择关税作为成本上涨的理由。

沃尔玛升级后的成本变动管理程序位于它的“零售链”（Retail Link）系统中，这个系统是20世纪90年代研发的，主要为了满足供应商对销量和存货的动态管理需求。经过这些年的持续改进，该系统已经具备了数据挖掘功能，使供应商能够预测哪些商品将具有较高需求。在沃尔玛位于阿肯色州本顿维尔的总部周边，还有一群所谓“零售链”的专家在帮助供应商解读这些数据。

撬动杠杆

沃尔玛在上月表示，将尽一切努力将商品价格保持在低水平，比如与供应商谈判，以及在中国以外寻找新的制造业产地等。

董明伦上周在对分析师的报告中表示：“我们将竭尽所能，尽量让我们的顾客感受不到此事的影响，动用我们所有的杠杆。”

同时沃尔玛也警告称，有一些商品的涨价是不可避免的，比如自行车等。该公司的财务总监布雷特·比格斯在5月16日接受采访时表示：“关税上涨必然导致价格上涨。”

而另一方面，关税上涨导致的物价上涨，也会降低消费者的可支配收入，从而限制了他们能够买到什么，以及可以花多少钱买东西。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

Walmart Inc. has updated the information network used daily by its suppliers to let them submit cost increases directly attributable to higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.

The move shows how the world’s largest retailer, which sells billions of dollars of goods made in China annually, is incorporating the reality of tariffs into its day-to-day operations. Walmart emerged relatively unscathed from the first rounds of tariffs on imports from America’s largest trading partner. But that’s changed, with the U.S. bumping levies to 25% on $200 billion of goods, including handbags and furniture, then initiating a separate process to tax another $300 billion, including clothing, shoes and electronics.

The retailer began using the tool, dubbed Cost Change Scenario, a year ago and has been rolling it out across product categories, according to internal memos and emails obtained by Bloomberg.

The online application, whose existence hasn’t previously been reported, replaces Excel-based forms, which vendors had to fill out manually. The new process is quicker and lets vendors choose a reason for the cost hike from a menu, which includes tariffs, labor, transportation, and raw materials.

Tariffs could “wipe out” retail profits

The uncertainty surrounding Chinese tariffs has made their job tougher as Walmart gears up to battle rivals Amazon.com Inc. and Target Corp. during the back-to-school and holiday selling seasons.

Greg Melich, an analyst at Evercore ISI, estimates the latest tranche of 25% tariffs, if instituted, would prompt across-the-board price increases and “wipe out” profit growth among big U.S. retailers.

“I hope that this gets sorted,” McMillon said last week, “but we obviously don’t control that.”

How the tool works

The tool’s name Cost Change Scenario reflects realities of retail supply chains: While suppliers set the cost of particular items, Walmart controls the final price on the shelf. When suppliers raise the cost of a product, retailers have to decide whether to absorb some or all of that increase, taking a hit to profit, or simply pass it along to consumers, which could hurt sales if they choose to shop elsewhere for the product.

Walmart’s previous cost-change forms varied by product category and didn’t let suppliers choose tariffs as the impetus for changes, according to documents obtained by Bloomberg. It’s unclear how often suppliers are currently citing tariffs as a reason for cost hikes, compared with other issues.

The retail giant’s updated cost-changing process is housed inside its Retail Link system, which it developed in the 1990s to provide vendors with up-to-date information on sales and inventory levels as its business rapidly expanded. The system has evolved over the years, and today includes data-mining capabilities that let suppliers predict what items will be in high demand. Around Walmart’s headquarters in Bentonville, Arkansas, self-proclaimed Retail Link Specialists help suppliers interpret the data.

Pulling levers

Walmart said last month it will do everything it can to maintain low prices it’s famous for, such as negotiating with suppliers and finding new sources of manufacturing outside of China.

“We’re going to do the best we can to manage through this in a way that our customers don’t feel it, pulling all the levers that we’ve got,” chief executive officer Doug McMillon said in a presentation to analysts last week.

But Walmart has warned higher prices on some items, such as bicycles, are inevitable. “Increased tariffs lead to increased prices,” chief financial officer Brett Biggs said in a May 16 interview.

In turn, higher prices caused by tariff increases reduce consumer’s disposable income, which limits what and how much they can buy.