美联储为何降息，下一步是什么？

如果你等这一天已经等了好几个月了，等靴子真正落地时你一定不会感到奇怪。

美联储于7月30日宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点，即降低0.25%，市场反应平静。不过，来自于联邦基金期货市场的数据显示，从几个星期以前，每一个投资者就已经预料到至少会有这个降幅。

美联储不可能突然降息。“不然股市下跌的风险太高。” Stuart Estate Planning Wealth Advisors的总裁克雷格·科斯诺表示。尽管美国的经济表现相对强劲，但“你要受制于市场的反应，美联储不能让市场失望。”

同样，降息50个基点似乎也不太可能。“尽管历史上一个新周期的第一次降息幅度往往是0.5%，但这样做很容易让金融市场怀疑美联储掌握了一些不为人知的内幕却遮遮掩掩，因而感到恐慌。”Keel Point首席经济顾问、前美国财政部和白宫国家安全委员会职员史蒂文·斯坎克表示，“联邦基金利率下调25个基点并不会对借款人产生实质性的影响，但具有重要的象征意义，说明美联储正在采取行动，从而避免当经济进一步放缓时被指责不作为。”

然而，斯坎克说，这次降息之后很可能会至少再降0.25%，“作为一项安全保险措施”。

一些分析师和顾问甚至想知道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔此前的讲话中，为何要费心发出降息信号。经济似乎一直运行良好。

但长期关注美联储的经济指数协会（Economic Index Associates）的主席兼首席执行官罗伯特·约翰逊说，这种观点十分短视。“我们的经济是在全球环境下运行的。”他说，“你看，全球利率如此之低，我们必须把这点考虑在内。”在过去几年里，一些央行有时甚至会设置负利率，付钱给银行争着给他们划拨贷款，目的是为了刺激经济。

许多人都期待好年景能够持续，至少持续一段时间，“在过去几年里，世界一直有点奇怪。”外汇专业公司Halo Financial的创始董事戴维·约翰逊说，“美联储——也就是央行为国际投资者提供了最低的贷款利率，而且实际上也提供了更高的收益率，比欧洲、澳洲、亚洲、英国都高，因此当美国和中国之间的贸易摩擦、中东局势和英国脱欧争议的态势趋紧时，人们甚至更容易决定把资金投入美国。”

“我认为还有很多未知因素。”约翰逊说，例如，“我们不知道这些贸易谈判的结果。”贸易摩擦仍在继续且悬而未决。其他国家的经济不一定像美国表现一样好。如果一些国家的经济开始下滑，可能会影响全球经济，阻碍美国的发展。

因此，美联储选择了唯一可行的道路：在不作为和采取更激进的措施之间选择中庸。这仍然留下了一个明显的潜在危险：如果出现严重的金融收缩，美联储可能不再有足够的空间来提供大幅降息，因此无法借此刺激经济恢复正常运行。（财富中文网）

译者：Agatha

It’s hard to be surprised when you’ve been expecting it for months.

After the Federal Reserve’s announcement on July 30 that it would lower its basic interest rate by 25 basis points—a 0.25% cut—markets were calm. But then, data from the Fed funds futures market has suggested that for weeks 100% of investors already expected at least that much.

There was no way the Fed would have scuttled a cut. “The risk of a stock market drop would be too high,” said Craig Kirsner, president of Stuart Estate Planning Wealth Advisors. Even though economic news in the U.S. has been relatively strong, “you are beholden to the market’s reaction and the Fed can’t disappoint.”

Similarly, a 50-basis-point cut seemed unlikely. “Although the first cut in a new cycle historically has been 0.5%, this easily could frighten financial markets about what the Fed knows but isn’t saying,” said Steven Skancke, chief economic advisor for Keel Point and former U.S. Treasury and White House National Security Council staff member. “Not that a quarter-point reduction in the Fed Funds rate makes a material difference to borrowers, but it seems to have symbolic importance that the Fed doing something, lest it be blamed for inaction if the economy slows further.”

However, chances seem likely that this cut will be followed by at least 0.25% cut “as a measure of safety and insurance,” Skancke said.

Some analysts and advisers went gone so far as to wonder why the Fed bothered signaling a cut at all in previous remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The economy seems to have been moving along well enough.

But that view is short-sighted, said Robert Johnson, chairman and CEO of Economic Index Associates and long-time Fed watcher. “We are operating in a global environment,” he said. “When you see interest rates globally that are as low as they are, we have to take that into account.” Some central banks have at times over the last few years even set negative interest rates, paying banks to lend them money in an attempt to stimulate their economies.

And a lot of people are depending on the good times to continue, at least for a while “The world has been in a slightly odd place for the past few years,” said David Johnson, founding director of foreign exchange specialist Halo Financial. “The U.S. Federal Reserve; historically the central bank that offered the cheapest lending rates for international investors, has actually been offering higher yields than Europe, Australia, Asia, and the U.K. So, when global tensions between the US and China, in the Middle East and over the UK’s EU membership have raised their heads, the movement of funds into US assets was an even easier decision.”

“I think there are a lot of unknowns out there,” Johnson said. “We don't know the outcome of these trade talks” for example. Trade wars are still unresolved and ongoing. Other national economies aren’t necessarily seeing the performance of the U.S. If some begin to falter, that could affect the global economy and hinder things in the U.S.

And so, the Fed took the only path available: moderation between doing nothing and a more aggressive path. That still leaves one clear danger: If there is a major financial contraction, the Fed may no longer have enough working room to provide a rate cut large enough to stimulate the economy back into working order.