非洲猪瘟快速扩散，猪肉价格可能飙涨

别名“猪埃博拉”的非洲猪瘟正在迅速演变成农业巨头面临最具破坏性的疾病之一。猪瘟蔓延扰乱了全球贸易，推动猪肉价格上升，还导致数千万头家猪和野猪遭屠宰。这场瘟疫的爆发点在中国，也是全球最大的猪肉生产国和消费国。

从2019年到目前为止，由于非洲猪瘟导致发病死亡或采取针对性宰杀等紧急遏制措施，中国农户已经损失3亿至3.5亿头猪。“目前估测农户已经损失40%的猪，到年底损失可能达到50%以上。” 荷兰合作银行旗下研究部门RaboResearch的高级分析师克里斯蒂娜·麦克拉肯向《财富》杂志说道。“损失将超过欧盟和美国全年饲养的数量。”

RaboResearch预计，非洲猪瘟今年将导致全球生猪供应量减少约四分之一，受影响国家补充国内库存可能需要长达五年。而且有迹象表明，已经开始攀升的出口价格将会飙涨，可预见的未来都会保持高位。

自2018年12月以来，Rabobank统计五大进出口市场（中国、加拿大、巴西、美国和欧盟）而编制的“五国生猪价格指数”已经上涨20%以上，不过世界各地对猪价上涨的反应各异。今年到目前为止，美国的生猪和母猪价格几乎没有变化，预计会攀升。猪肉是中国人喜爱的食物， RaboResearch数据显示，今年7月，中国生猪价格上涨了40%以上。

中国无疑是受创最严重的市场，不过瘟疫也在迅速扩散到邻国。根据联合国粮食及农业组织最新的非洲猪瘟热度图，非洲猪瘟已经蔓延至朝鲜、越南和柬埔寨等7个邻国。越南的例子可看出该病传播速度之快，2月越南确认首例，粮食及农业组织称6个月后越南全境已经爆发62起疫情，农业和农村发展部只得下令宰杀400万头猪。

非洲猪瘟是一种高传染性、高致命性的病毒，仅在猪之间传播，农场家猪和野猪都很容易感染。（不会危及人类健康。）通过腌制或烹调无法从猪身上根除病毒，所以该病防治起来非常困难。受感染的家猪或野猪很快就会传染给其他猪。另外，猎人和农民的衣服如果已经遭到病毒污染，一不小心就会传染给健康的猪。

人们认为，疫情始于大约十年前，从非洲扩散到了东欧和亚洲。十个欧盟国家都报告爆发了非洲猪瘟，之后采取地区性农场检疫隔离措施。欧盟官员下令在疫区严格管控，有针对性地宰杀，并将捕杀野猪的季节扩大至全年，还在部分地区设立了赏金。在欧盟，遏制战略似乎对农场养猪有效。

在亚洲，特别是中国，问题正在逐渐恶化。在全球贸易方面造成各种各样的影响——不仅仅是猪肉产品，还有其他来源的动物蛋白。在受非洲猪瘟重创的国家，猪肉供应受限，禽类价格开始攀升。由于急需猪肉，中国增加了从贸易伙伴的进口。RaboResearch在最新的猪肉行业季度报告中称：“在2019年前五个月，欧盟对中国的猪肉出口同比增长41%。”

在今夏的贸易关税纠纷里，这甚至成为了美国农户难得的亮点。尽管中美两国之间存在贸易摩擦，中国还是从美国购买一部分动物蛋白。

“我不敢确定贸易摩擦到什么程度，但估计中国会继续购买美国猪肉。”麦克拉肯说道。“目前世界其他地区没有足够的猪肉（或其他蛋白质）能满足中国的需求。预计美国的猪肉、牛肉和禽肉可以帮忙填补空白，直到中国内部供应恢复正常。”（财富中文网）

译者：艾伦

审校：夏林

Nicknamed “pig ebola,” African swine fever is rapidly becoming one of Big Ag’s most devastating disease outbreaks, upending global trade, driving up pork prices and resulting in the slaughter of tens of millions of pigs and wild boar. And ground zero is China, the world’s biggest producer and consumer of pork.

Chinese farmers have lost 300 million to 350 million pigs to ASF so far in 2019 through either disease-related deaths or such emergency containment efforts as targeted culls. “We currently estimate 40% of the herd has already been lost, and more than 50% of the herd could be eliminated by year-end,” Christine McCracken, a senior analyst at RaboResearch, the research arm of Dutch investment bank Rabobank, told Fortune. “This loss would account for more pigs than are raised in an entire year by the EU and U.S.”

RaboResearch projects that ASF will wipe out roughly one-quarter of the global pig supply this year, and that it could take up to five years for impacted countries to replenish their domestic stocks. And there are signs export prices, which have already begun to climb, will soar and remain high for the foreseeable future.

RaboBank’s “Five Nation Hog Price Index,” which counts the Big 5 export/import markets (China, Canada, Brazil, the United States and European Union) has jumped more than 20 percent since December, 2018. That rise has been felt differently around the world. Hog and sow prices in the U.S. have barely budged year-to-date, but are expected to climb. In China, where pork is a beloved staple of the diet, hog prices jumped more than 40% in July, according to RaboResearch.

China far and away is the most impacted market, but the disease is rapidly spreading to neighboring countries. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ latest ASF heat map, the disease has spread to seven neighboring countries, including North Korea, Vietnam and Cambodia. In a sign of how fast the disease spreads, Vietnam confirmed its first outbreak in February. Six months later there are 62 outbreaks around the country forcing the country’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to order the cull of 4 million swine, according to FAO.

African swine fever is a highly contagious and highly lethal virus that spreads from pig to pig, impacting both domestic farmyard pigs and feral hogs. (There’s no health risk to humans.) The disease is extremely difficult to eradicate as curing or cooking the meat doesn’t eliminate it from the animal’s system. An infected pig or wild boar passes it quickly to other swine. Hunters and farmers can also easily pass it to pigs via contaminated clothes.

The current outbreak is believed to have started about a decade ago, spreading into Eastern Europe and Asia. Ten EU countries have reported ASF outbreaks, triggering the quarantine of regional farms. EU officials have ordered selective culls of stricken region and the expansion of boar-hunting season year-round with bounties instituted in some places. In the EU, the containment strategy seems to be working for farmyard pigs.

In Asia, and particularly China, the problem is trending in the wrong direction. And that’s triggered all kinds of global trade ramifications—not just for pork products, but other sources of animal protein as well. Poultry prices have begun to climb in ASF-stricken countries where pork supplies are suffering. Desperate for pork, China has upped imports from trade partners. “In the first five months of 2019, EU exports to China were up 41% YOY,” RaboResearch said in its latest quarterly report on the pork industry.

It’s even become a rare bright spot for the American farmer in a summer of trade tariffs. China is a willing buyer of American animal protein despite the ongoing trade war between Washington and Beijing.

“I am not sure how much more serious the trade war will get, but my expectation is that China will continue to buy U.S. pork,” said McCracken. “There is currently not enough pork (or other protein) available in the rest of the world to fully meet China’s protein needs. We expect U.S. pork, beef, and poultry to help fill the void until China can rebuild its internal supplies.”