美国制造业继续放缓，企业寄希望于新市场和科技

挪威的Norsk Hydro是全球的主要铝生产商，对其北美分公司而言，夏季以来的生意一直不那么红火。

Norsk Hydro北美业务的年销售额为30亿美元，在北美各地设有20多家工厂，生产拖车、卡车、轿车和门窗的“骨骼”。该业务总裁查尔斯·斯特拉菲斯说：“就像许多行业一样，这8至10年我们一直在增长。”去年，经营情况达到了2006年以来的最高点。而今年截至7月的业绩放慢了3%，但依然“相当好”。

现在情况如何呢？斯特拉菲斯表示：“过去两个月我们看到了相当显著的减速。”

卡车和拖车订单分别下降了50%和70%。代表较小机械销售和生产厂家的一般经销业务下滑了4%-7%。汽车业务下降了4%。该项业务的唯一问题是2020年的业绩是会从前期高点回落5%-10%，还是会出现20%-40%的衰退性下跌。斯特拉菲斯说：“我还不知道答案。”

许多制造商都面临着类似局面。一些公司将渡过难关，原因是一段时间以来他们一直在准备进行科技创新或制定营销策略，或者一直在利用行业的上升势头。其他的则可能发现来年会很困难。

窥测未来

已经出现了令人不安的迹象。9月的就业报告显示美国制造业就业机会减少了2000个，而去年9月的数字是增加1.8万个。美国供应管理学会编制的采购经理人指数（PMI）是制造业的晴雨表。8月的PMI降至50以下，9月进一步滑落到47.8，创2009年以来新低。该指数低于50即表明行业处于收缩状态。价格水平连续第四个月下降。受这些经济数据影响，道琼斯指数下跌近500点。

许多工厂都出现了明显的放缓迹象。向制造企业销售金属制造设备的CNC Machines的首席执行官科特·达赫迪此前曾对《财富》杂志表示，他发现夏季业务增长缓慢，而秋季销售增幅只有他通常预期的一半。这样的趋势一直在延续。达赫迪说：“我们必须得比以往更有创造性，以便拉到更多生意。”

有些领域仍在增长

许多公司都存在不确定性，全球经济也面临挑战。

设在圣路易斯的定制材料处理设备厂商BHS的首席营销官兼执行副总裁吉姆·胡贝尔指出：“更多大型产品的工业制造放慢了速度，[比如工程和工业设备]。”但北美的应用型制造“目前仍处于高水平”。

和中国的贸易关系依然令人迷惑。唐纳德·特朗普宣称在最近的谈判中获胜。《中国日报》则表示已经取得了进展：“基于以往的经验，华盛顿总有可能取消协议，前提是它认为这样做更符合自己的利益。”公司无法确定应该采取怎样的策略。

美国全国制造商协会首席经济学家查德·穆特雷博士指出：“我们的观点一直是制造商需要更多的确定性。美加墨协定[取代之前的北美自由贸易协定]需要获得通过。制造商希望和中国的贸易争端画上句号。我们一直在说的其他问题还包括进出口银行以及我们需要它充分发挥作用。”

整体趋势一直有利于一些公司的财务数据。由于汽车电子和物联网快速增长，有85年历史的芝加哥电子制造企业Morey的总裁兼首席运营官乔治·惠蒂尔表示，该公司预计明年将增长25%。但中国的情况让“[成本]略有上升”，而且必须将其转嫁给消费者。

但对许多公司来说，市场和行业趋势本身的延续性已经不足，而且已经到了需要认真重新考量的时候了。

发明之母

金属制造商Quikcut的所有者及首席执行官马克·韦伯说：“如果只生产一种产品，而且这是你的全部业务，那你在滑坡时就会受到较大的影响。”他正在开拓新市场并分散风险。“有些工作现在就要取得成果了。我觉得这是一个在下行市场中实现增长的机会。如果不出现这样的局面，资源就得不到解放。”

提升创造性，无论是为了改善质量和效率，还是为了锁定新的机遇，都已经成为创造新的机会，从而驾驭较大经济风浪的关键，至少理论上如此。但另辟蹊径可能很难，而且不能保证企业可以经受住此类风暴的洗礼。

达赫迪说：“我接触到的一些年纪较大的人不喜欢变化。我觉的这是人的本性，他们希望坚守自己了解的东西。除非他们每年都有意识地推动自己去学习最新科技，否则他们的思维就会拘泥于20年前管用的那些东西上。”

纽约州罗彻斯特市门窗五金件生产商Caldwell Manufacturing也发现8月的业务放缓。该公司的首席运营官盖瑞·米勒说：“我们的全年业绩会很好，但上个季度的情况不会像此前6至7个季度那么火爆。”

Caldwell已经开始投资于3D打印机，它将后者用于产品原型、短期生产以及工厂自动化。米勒说：“它让我们得以重新安排人手，[让他们从事技术要求更高的工作]。”这项投资应该有助于2020年的经营。“我们略微提高了明年的预期，同时我们正在推出许多新产品，我们觉得它们会产生非常好的效果。”

但对Caldwell来说，这依然只是意味着个位数增长。虽然好过大幅下跌，但这表明制造商，或者其他任何行业中的公司无法单凭创新来绕开强大的经济因素。或许不会有很大的新市场来改变局势，许多新市场甚至会很小。

制造业的整体问题是公司能否可以等待贸易争端趋于平静以及美国的消费支出能否继续占GDP的7%。如果公众变得紧张并停止消费，工厂里的生产线预计就会长期停摆。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

For a North American division of Norsk Hydro, a major global aluminum producer, business hasn’t been cheery since the summer.

“Like a lot of industries we’ve been on an 8- to 10-year growth period,” says Charles Straface, president of the $3 billion annual sales business unit that builds the “bones” of such products as trailers, trucks, cars, windows, and doors in more than 20 factories across North America. Last year, business was at a peak it hadn’t seen since 2006. This year things began to slow by 3% through July, which was still “pretty good.”

Now? “In the last two months we’re seeing pretty massive slowing,” Straface says.

Truck and trailer order rates are down between 50% and 70%. General distribution, a proxy for smaller machine shops and fabricators, is off by 4% to 7%. Automotive is down by 4%. The only question the business has is whether 2020 brings a 5% to 10% correction from a previous high or a 20% to 40% recession-type contraction. “I don’t know the answer to that,” Straface says.

Many manufacturers face similar questions. Some will pull through because they’ve been preparing for some time with innovation of technology and marketing strategies or have ridden industry rising industry trends. Others, though, might find the coming year difficult.

Crystal ball

There have been disquieting signs. The September jobs report showed a loss of 2,000 manufacturing jobs versus a gain of 18,000 at the same time last year. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a manufacturing strength indicator from the Institute for Supply Management, dropped below 50 in August—a sign of industry contraction—and last month further fell to 47.8, the lowest number since 2009. Prices contracted for the fourth straight month. The result drove a nearly 500-point drop in the Dow.

A slowdown has been obvious on many factory floors. Curt Doherty, CEO of CNC Machines, a reseller of metal manufacturing equipment to manufacturers, previously told Fortune he saw a slow summer and only half of the fall sales uptick he normally expected. Things have continued along the same trend. “We’re having to get creative to land more deals than we used to,” he says.

Some things keep growing

There’s uncertainty for many companies and challenges in a global economy.

“More industrial manufacturing of certain large volume types of products [like construction and agricultural equipment] are slowing down,” says Jim Huber, COO and executive vice president of BHS, a St. Louis-based manufacturer of custom material handling equipment. But manufacturing for use in North America “for the moment continues to remain at a high level.”

Trade in China remains confusing. Donald Trump claimed victory in recent negotiations. However, China Daily, a news outlet of the country’s government, notes a breakthrough appears to have happened, “based on its past practice, there is always the possibility that Washington may decide to cancel the deal if it thinks that doing so will better serve its interests.” Companies can’t be sure of what their strategies should be.

“What we’ve been saying at the National Association of Manufacturers is manufacturers need more certainty,” says the organization’s chief economist, Dr. Chad Moutray. “We need the USMCA [NAFTA replacement] passed. Manufacturers are looking for a conclusion to the trade war with China. The other issue we’ve all been talking about is the export import bank and the need to get that fully functioning.”

General trends have buoyed the finances of some companies. Rapid growth of electronics in automobiles and of the Internet of Things means 85-year-old Chicago-based electronics manufacturer Morey expects 25% growth next year, according to president and COO George Whittier. But the situation in China has “added a bit [in cost]” that must be passed on to customers.

For many, though, market and industry trends alone haven’t been sufficiently sustaining and some serious rethinking is due.

Mother of invention

“If you’'re only making one product and that’s all you do, you’re going to be affected more in a downturn,” says Mark Webb, CEO and owner of metal fabrication manufacturer Quikcut. He’s pushed to enter new markets and diversify his risk. “Some of those things are coming to fruition now. I look at it as an opportunity to grow in a declining market. It frees up resources to do things you otherwise wouldn’t do.”

The push for creativity, whether in making things better and more efficiently or locating new opportunities, has become critical to open new opportunities that—in theory at least—can surf over some big economic waves. But doing something different can be hard—and no guarantee that a company will weather the storm.

“Some of the older generations I’ve talked to, they don’t like change,” Doherty says. “I think it’s human nature and they want to stick to what they know. Unless they’re consciously making that push every year to learn the newest technology, they’re the ones that seem stuck on mentally what was working 20 years ago.”

Caldwell Manufacturing, which makes door and window hardware, also saw the August slowdown. “We will have a good year, but the last quarter is not going to be as on fire as what we felt for the last six or seven quarters,” says Gary Miller, COO of the Rochester, New York-based company.

Caldwell has invested in 3D printers for prototypes and short-run production as well as plant automation. “It allows us to redeploy our headcount [to higher skilled tasks],” Miller says. The investment should help with prospects for 2020. “We’re forecasting up slightly for the coming year, but we’re launching a lot of new products that we think will have a very good impact.”

But for Caldwell that still only means low single-digit growth. While that’s better than a significant drop, it doesn’t mean innovation alone will let manufacturers—or companies in any other industry—make an end run around big economic forces. There may not be a big new market, or even many little ones, to make up the difference.

The question for manufacturing in general is whether companies can wait out the calming of trade waters and if American consumer spending will continue to be 70% of GDP. If the public gets nervous and stops buying, expect a lot of idle time on the factory line.