电子烟增长放缓，香烟销售回升，到底哪个更有害健康？

行业数据显示，由于公共健康相关的警告，近几周来，电子烟的销量增速已经跌至一年半以来的最低点，而香烟销售额的下滑在上个月已经略有缓和。

Cowen公司的分析师薇薇安·艾泽援引尼尔森公司（Nielsen）的数据写道，电子烟的销售额在截至10月5日的四周内同比增长25.5%。至少从2018年8月起，该品类每月涨幅都超过50%，相较之下，这是巨大的下滑。

根据美国疾病控制和预防中心（Centers for Disease Control and Prevention）上周发布的报告，公众期望美国监管方遏制饱受欢迎的电子烟产品的热销，以解决它们对未成年吸烟者营销的问题。此外，最近一种肺部疾病也导致了近1,300人感染，26人死亡，这些都减缓了电子烟的增长速度。

Cowen的艾泽写道：“电子烟相关的疾病让销售额随之明显下滑。”与前一个月相比，电子烟的美元销售额减少18.4%，销售量减少14.3%。Cowen的数据显示，JUUL连续第三个季度亏损，以美元计算的市值缩水64%。

据彭博情报（Bloomberg Intelligence）报道，类似的，IRI的数据也表明电子烟的销售额增长“在监管审查力度加大的情况下迅速刹车”。截至10月6日的四周内，电子烟的零售销售额增长30%，较之截至9月8日的四周的60.8%有明显下滑。彭博情报的分析师肯·谢伊表示：“越多越多的州和地方开始禁止电子烟产品，给销售额带来了影响。”

另一方面，Cowen的数据显示，香烟销量的下滑趋势有所缓和，近四周内跌幅只有6.2%，在此之前的12周为6.9%。艾泽写道，过去23个月里，香烟的销售额在一路下滑。

富国银行（Wells Fargo）的分析师邦尼·赫尔佐克在一份照会中写道，最近美国食品与药品管理局（FDA）相关的新闻和“对电子烟越来越负面的认知”是否可能导致“电子烟烟民回归”传统香烟，从而促进改进型可燃香烟的销量，“目前还言之尚早。”

尽管如此，分析师认为香烟市场会出现反弹。富国银行维持预测，认为今年香烟行业的销量会下跌6%。赫尔佐克写道，尽管“食品与药品管理局对e-cig和JUUL电子烟采取的举措可能会引发消费者反应并带来利好”。

彭博情报的分析师则表示，尽管香烟的销售额“小幅提高”，但“似乎无法充分把握竞争对手电子烟的销售额增速大幅放缓的良机。”（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

E-cigarette sales in recent weeks grew by the slowest rate in more than a year and a half amid public health warnings over vaping, while cigarette sales declines eased slightly in the past month, according to industry data.

Sales of e-cigarettes grew by 25.5% in the four weeks ended Oct. 5 compared with the same period a year ago, Cowen analyst Vivien Azer wrote, citing data from Nielsen. It’s a significant slowdown from the monthly growth rates of more than 50% that the e-cigarette category has seen since at least August 2018.

The slowing growth of e-cigarettes comes as U.S. regulators are expected to halt sales of flavored vaping products to address concerns they’re marketed to underage smokers, and in the wake of a lung ailment that has afflicted nearly 1,300 patients and killed 26 people, according to a report from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last week.

“The impacts of vapor related illnesses have led to substantial sequential declines,” Cowen’s Azer wrote. Compared with the prior month, e-cigarette dollar sales were down 18.4%, while unit volumes were down 14.3%. JUUL, Cowen’s data showed, posted its third straight loss, as its market share as measured in dollars declined 64%.

In a similar trend, IRI data also showed that e-cigarette sales growth “decelerated sharply again amid rising regulatory scrutiny,” according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Retail sales grew 30% in the four weeks ending Oct. 6, significantly slowing from a 60.8% gain for the 4-week period ending Sept. 8. “A rising number of state and local bans on e-vapor products are weighing on sales,” BI analyst Ken Shea said.

On the other hand, drops in cigarette volumes were less pronounced than in the prior period, falling 6.2% in the 4-week time frame, compared with a 6.9% decline trend during the previous 12 weeks, according to Cowen. Cigarette sales have fallen for the past 23 months, Azer wrote.

It may be “too early to be certain” whether recent FDA-related news and “an increasingly negative perception of e-cigarettes” may be contributing to improved combustible cigarette volumes “as vapers potentially return” to traditional smokes, Wells Fargo analyst Bonnie Herzog said in a note.

Still, analysts are standing by the prediction that the cigarette industry will bounce back. Wells Fargo continues to expect industry volume to fall 6% this year, although “there could be upside based on the consumer response to the FDA’s actions on e-cig flavors/JUUL,“ Herzog wrote.

BI analysts said that while numbers had “improved modestly,“ cigarette sales “didn’t appear to fully capture the benefit from a pickup amid dramatically slowing sales of competing e-cigarettes.”