对华贸易“枯竭”，美国龙虾行业面临崩溃

龙虾行业有过几年的好时光，特别是经销商一直设法在中国发展人脉从而扩大业务规模的情况下。贸易争端开始后，中国从2018年7月6日开始对包括甲壳类动物在内的许多美国产品征收25%的关税。这个市场在一夜之间崩塌了，而且中国对美国的竞争对手加拿大敞开了大门，后者也在捕捞和运输仅存在于北美东北部的龙虾。

威奇塔州立大学国际商业巴顿杰出讲座教授及管理学教授乌莎·海利说：“中国用加拿大龙虾取代了美国龙虾。”美国的龙虾出口量已经从2018年6月的1200万磅（约544万公斤）降至今年6月的220万磅（约99万公斤）。

和农业、制造业以及美国经济中的其他主要行业相比，龙虾行业或许很小，但对从业者来说可不是这样。现在他们正在设法寻找维持行业运转的途径。

龙虾批发商Maine Coast的销售和营销副总裁希拉·亚当斯说：“加征关税后我们对中国的销售比以前少了80%左右。”约占该公司总业务量的8%。“以前我们每周都[直接]向中国大陆销售龙虾。”现在和中国做生意的机会只出现在中国买家无法从加拿大获得所需产品的时候。

由于龙虾行业自身的独特性，美国仍然在间接向中国销售龙虾。缅因州龙虾经销商协会的执行董事安妮·特斯里基斯说：由于供给不稳定，“过去30年这个行业建立起了既协作又相互竞争的机制。加拿大有40多个龙虾捕捞区，但各个捕捞区的作业时间只有很短暂的重叠。缅因州和新罕布什尔州允许全年捕虾，而美国的其他州一般都有禁渔期。

这让美国的龙虾供应更为充足，还可以在加拿大龙虾供不应求时作为补充进入加拿大市场。在这些进入加拿大的龙虾中，有很小一部分现在销售到了中国，因为它们不受关税影响。但多了一个中间环节就意味着每单生意赚到的钱变少了。对捕捞者来说价格挺好，因为他们可以把捕捞所得悉数售出。亚当斯说：“受挤压的是我们这一块。”

并非首次受到打击

这并不是贸易性不利因素在近些年给龙虾行业带来的唯一打击。2008年，美国食品与药品管理局（FDA）建议消费者不要食用龙虾肝，也就是龙虾体内一块软软的绿色物体，原因是可能积累造成麻痹性贝类中毒的毒素。龙虾肉仍然是安全的，但美国食品与药品管理局的公告说的不够清楚。

日本厚生劳动省建议买家对龙虾肝进行测试，这造成购买量大幅滑坡。亚当斯说：“这是美国有能力扭转的问题。加拿大很快就改变了局势，但这10年美国食品与药品管理局一直毫无作为。”

特斯里基斯指出：“[在这个问题上]我们仍然处于停滞状态。”

接下来，欧洲又出了问题。加拿大和欧盟签订了新的贸易协议，降低了龙虾的关税，而美国还没有这样做。这再次让美国批发商处于价格劣势，并且损失了更多生意。

和种植业不同，龙虾行业的规模较小，几乎不受政客们关注。为弥补利润损失，批发商不得不把重点放在寻找新市场上，这项工作既耗时又花钱。海利教授说：“美国龙虾行业花了6-12个月才找到其他买家。”但替代者未必能够提供同样的价格。

批发商Boston Lobster Company也损失了大量中国销售额。该公司的销售人员布伦特·林肯说：“我觉得在开始征收关税后，我个人的业务减少了大概70%。现在我不得不将重点放在其他地区。”

Boston Lobster Company曾经想办法绕过限制——他们把龙虾经水路运往河内，再用卡车运进中国。这种做法持续了五个月，随后被政府部门叫停。林肯用了很多时间来寻找进入新加坡和韩国等其他外国市场的切入点。

此外，美国批发商都在相互挖对方的国内客户，造成龙虾价格下跌。林肯说：“会买东西的人，每次下订单时都会[找好几家供应商]来询价。他会让批发商相互竞争，说：‘哦，老天，人家都卖7美元，你能帮个忙吗？’”

就算贸易争端最终结束，而且中国降低关税，龙虾行业也会受到长期损害。美国的大型机场和海外航线较多，因此对加拿大拥有空运优势。但亚当时指出，加拿大“正在为改善这一点而大举投资” ，而这有可能让龙虾生意永久性地向加拿大倾斜。“如果把一个竞争对手挤出了市场，[其他人]就会获得增强实力的机会。”

林肯说：“我们一直在想办法让自己保持积极的心态。”如果关税下降而且加拿大出现糟糕的捕捞季——龙虾行业时不时地会出现这样的问题，他希望中国会有人给他发电子邮件或者打电话说：“你有什么产品可以卖给我们吗？”（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

The lobster industry was enjoying some good years, especially with the work distributors had done developing contacts to grow their presence in China. And then came the trade war and the July 6, 2018 start of China’s 25% tariff on many U.S. goods, including the crustaceans. That market sank overnight and opened the door wide to competition from Canada, the other country in the business of catching and shipping the lobsters found only in the northeast region of North America.

“China replaced U.S. lobsters with Canadian,” says Usha Haley, professor and Barton distinguished chair in international business at Wichita State University. Exports from domestic waters dropped from 12 million pounds in June 2018 to 2.2 million pounds by the same time this year.

The lobster industry may be small compared to big agriculture, manufacturing, or other sectors of the economy, but not to those in it. And they’re trying to find ways to keep business afloat.

“About 80% of what we used to sell into China has stopped post tariff,” says Sheila Adams, vice president of sales and marketing at Maine Coast, a lobster wholesaler. That works out to about 8% of the company’s total business. “We used to do [direct] weekly sales into Mainland China,” she says. Now it’s only opportunistic business when Chinese buyers can’t get what they need from Canada.

There are still U.S. indirect sales to China because of the unusual nature of the lobster business. “The industry has for the last 30 years built up a system where we work together while we also compete against each other,” says Annie Tselikis, executive director of the Maine Lobster Dealers’ Association. The reason is irregular supply. Canada has more than 40 designated areas for lobstering but only brief overlapping times when the different spots may be worked. Maine and New Hampshire allow year-round lobstering while other states typically have periods of the year that are closed to harvesting.

The U.S. as a result often has more available supply and sells into Canada to supplement when their availability runs short. Some portion of that lobster now heads to China because it is no longer subject to the tariff. But the addition of another middleman means fewer dollars per party. Prices are fine for the people fishing because they can sell everything they bring in. “Where the squeeze is happening is at our level,” Adams says.

Not the first blow

This isn’t the industry’s only recent brush with trade-related adversity. That was in 2008, when the Food and Drug Administration issued a consumer advisory against eating tomalley—the soft green material in the lobster body—because of a potential buildup of toxins that cause paralytic shellfish poisoning. The meat remained safe to eat but the wording was confusing.

Japan’s Ministry of Health suggested buyers test the tomalley, which greatly curtailed purchases. “That’s something within the USA’s power to rectify,” Adams said. “The Canadians rectified it quickly and ten years later the FDA has not.”

“We’re still at a standstill [there],” Tselikis says.

Then came problems in Europe. Canada signed a new trade deal with the EU, something the U.S. had yet to do, and got new lower tariffs on lobsters. Again, U.S. wholesalers were at a pricing disadvantage and lost more business.

Unlike farming, the lobster industry is relatively small and gets little attention from politicians. To make up for lost profits, wholesalers have focused on finding new markets—a time consuming and expensive undertaking. “It took about 6 months to one year for the US lobster industry to find alternate buyers,” Professor Haley says. But replacements don't necessarily offer equal value.

Boston Lobster Company is another wholesaler that lost significant sales in China. “I think about 70% of my personal business has been gone since the tariff was passed,” says Brent Lincoln, a salesperson at the company. “You have to look to other areas.”

Boston Lobster tried doing end runs around the restrictions by shipping to Hanoi and then trucking the lobsters over the border to China. That lasted five months until authorities shut down that avenue. Lincoln spends much of his time looking for additional entry into other foreign markets, such as Singapore and South Korea.

Then there are domestic sales as wholesalers try to poach each other’s U.S.-based customers, but that drives down prices. “If you’re a good buyer, every time you place an order, you reach out [to multiple suppliers] and say what’s your price,” Lincoln says. The buyer pits one wholesaler against another “and says, ‘Oh jeez, the other guy is at $7, can you help me out?’”

Even when the trade war eventually concludes and China drops the tariffs, there will likely be long-term damage. The U.S. has enjoyed an air shipping advantage over Canada, with a greater number of major airports and flight routes overseas. But Canada is “investing a lot to try to improve that,” Adams says, potentially marking a permanent shift toward Canada. “When you take a competitor out of the market, then it gives [others] an opportunity to build strength.”

“We’re trying to stay positive,” Lincoln says. If the tariffs drop and Canada has a bad season—a periodic problem in the industry—he hopes to get an email or phone call from someone in China who will say, “Do you have any product for us?”