波音737 Max事件仍在恶化，瑞安航空下调业绩预期

波音737 Max事件对航空业的破坏性影响仍在持续。

11月4日，欧洲最大的廉价航空公司瑞安航空披露信息显示，波音737Max停飞事件仍在恶化，这已经是该公司停飞737Max的第七个月。由于飞机何时能够恢复执航仍然存在不确定，瑞安航空因此大幅下调了2020年的增长率，同时将继续削减部分基地并实施裁员。

今年7月，该公司表示，预计2020年夏天将收到30架波音737 Max，低于原计划的58架。11月4日，瑞安航空进一步下调了数字。上半年财报中表示：“我们预计最多只会收到20架MAX-200s。”受其影响，公司明年的客运量预计将减少500万人次，增长率将从7%降至3%。

瑞安航空的困境与不少航空公司类似，这些公司都是737 Max的第一批买家，原本希望购买更省油的窄体机型用于中远程航线。瑞安航空指出，该机型座位增加了4%，油耗减少了16%，停机维护时间也减少了。公司重申“交付后未来十年将改变公司的成本结构和业务。但由于飞机交付延迟，2021财年之前成本节约无法达到预期。”

自今年3月以来，波音737 Max一直处于停飞状态，此前发生了两起致命事故，一起发生在印度尼西亚，另一起发生在埃塞俄比亚，共造成346名乘客死亡。连锁反应对廉价航空公司的冲击尤为突出。挪威航空公司10月的报告称，“波音737 Max停飞已经影响到需求、运营费用和生产。”美国西南航空公司在上个月也报告称，今年迄今为止波音737 Max停飞已经导致公司损失了4.35亿美元的收入。

谨慎展望

瑞安航空表示，由于英国脱欧和波音737 Max停飞，“我们跟其他一些竞争对手盲目乐观预期不同，对今年剩下时间的前景仍然保持谨慎。”

然而，投资者在11月4日欢呼雀跃，推动该公司股价上涨9% ，随后开始小幅下挫。市场整体状况方面，受中美贸易协定谈判进展提振，11月4日欧洲股市收于四年来的高点。

11月4日早些时候，瑞安航空公司报告称，截至9月30日的6个月（今年盈利最丰厚的时期）税后利润为11.5亿欧元（约合13亿美元），与去年同期大致持平。在公司制作的视频中，公司的首席执行官迈克尔·奥利里和首席财务官尼尔·索拉汉站在秋日红色背景前发表讲话称，通过为乘客提供更快登机或预订座位服务并收取附加费用，可以抵消较低票价和较高燃油成本。

瑞安航空还将截至2020年3月31日的全年利润预期从之前的7.5亿欧元至9.5亿欧元下调至8亿欧元至9亿欧元。

波音公司表示，预计12月31日737 Max可以获准复飞，但欧盟航空安全局（EASA）表示，监管机构的审批过程可能需要更长时间。

瑞安航空最初订购了135架波音737 Max，预计在2020年夏季旺季之前会收到58架，但奥利里表示，预计届时仅能收到20架，如果监管机构在今年年底前能够对该机型重新认证，今年晚些时候还可能收到10架。但他也表示，公司“很有可能”到2020年旺季公司收不到新飞机。

奥利里对欧盟航空安全局缓慢的认证过程表示失望，指责该机构“拖了后腿。” 很少有人公开支持波音的情况下，他表示对“非常相信”波音737 Max的安全性。

奥利里表示，在等待新波音737 Max飞机交付的过程中，公司将继续削减基地数量，同时裁减飞行员和机组人员。

今年7月，瑞安航空曾经表示，由于新机延迟交付，预计其航班会比正常交付减少3万架次。（财富中文网）

译者：冯丰

审校：夏林

The Boeing 737 Max saga continues to inflict damage on the aviation sector.

On November 4, Ryanair was the latest airline to reveal the escalating toll of the 737 Max grounding, now in its seventh month. The uncertainty over when the plane will fly again forced Europe’s largest airline to slash its 2020 growth rate as it sticks with plans to cut back on bases and reduce its work force.

In July, the company said it expected the delivery of 30 Boeing 737 Max planes by next summer—down from a planned 58. On November 4, it downgraded that number further. “We expect to receive only 20 MAX-200s,” the company said in a fiscal first-half trading statement. The net effect, the company said, would be to cut its growth rate from 7% to 3% as it forecasts carrying 5 million fewer passengers in the current fiscal year.

Ryanair’s predicament is similar to other airlines who were among the first wave of eager buyers of the more fuel-efficient, narrow-body aircrafts for mid- and long-range flights. Ryanair notes the planes contain 4% more seats, burn 16% less fuel and require less maintenance downtime. “When delivered,” the company reiterated, “it will transform our cost base and our business for the next decade. Due to these delivery delays, we will not see any of these expected cost savings delivered until FY21.”

The 737 Max has been grounded since March following two fatal crashes, one in Indonesia and another in Ethiopia that killed a combined 346 passengers. The ripple effects are particularly acute among the budget airlines. Norwegian Air in October reported “the 737 MAX grounding has affected both demand, operating expenses and production.” In the U.S., Southwest Airlines also reported last month that the 737 Max delays have so far this year cost the company $435 million in missed revenues.

Cautious Outlook

Between Brexit and the Max grounding, Ryanair said “our outlook for the remainder of the year remains cautious. We try to avoid the unreliable optimism of some competitors.”

Yet investors cheered on November 4, driving the company’s shares as much as 9 percent higher, before inching downwards. Overall, European stocks closed at a four-year high on November 4, buoyed by progress in the U.S.-China trade deal talks.

Earlier on November 4, Ryanair Holdings reported after-tax profits of €1.15 billion (around $1.3 billion) for the six months ending Sept. 30—its most profitable period of the year—roughly even with the equivalent period last year. Speaking before a backdrop showing red fall colors in a company-produced video address, company Chief Executive Michael O’Leary and Neil Sorahan, the chief financial officer, said add-ons like fees to allow passengers to board flights faster or reserve seats help offset lower fares and higher fuel costs.

The company also narrowed its profit forecasts full-year, which will end March 31, 2020, to €800-900 million, compared to €750-950 million previously.

Boeing says it expects the plane to be cleared to fly before Dec. 31, but the European Union Aviation Safety Agency, best known as EASA, has said the regulatory approval process could take longer.

Ryanair initially ordered 135 of the 737 Max aircraft. The company originally expected to receive 58 of the high-capacity models of the 737 Max ahead of the 2020 high summer season, but O’Leary said the company now expects to receive 20 of them in that time frame, with another ten possible later in the year if regulators recertify the aircraft before the end of this year. But he also said there was a “real risk” it could enter the 2020 high season with no new aircraft at all.

O’Leary expressed frustration with the slow pace of the EASA certification process, accusing the agency of “dragging their heels.” In a rare show of public support for Boeing, he said he was “very confident” the 737 Max was safe.

As it waits on the delivery of the first of the new 737 Max aircraft, O’Leary said the company would stick with plans to reduce the number of bases it uses while scaling back on jobs among pilots and cabin crews.

In July, Ryanair said the delays tied with the new fleet would mean it would fly around 30,000 fewer flights than it would have flown if the new planes had been delivered on time.