Model 3降价20%？马斯克中国计划的下一步

据知情人士透露，在中国电动汽车市场日趋疲软的当下，为了在中国市场吸引更多的消费者，特斯拉正在考虑从今年起将中国产Model 3的价格降低20%或更多。

为避开关税、降低成本，特斯拉将减少进口零部件的数量，转而采用更多的本地零部件。由于该计划尚未对外披露，该知情人士要求不具名。特斯拉上海工厂生产的Model 3车型的首发价格为355,800 元（约50,800美元），但或将从2020年下半年起开始降价。

总投资达数十亿美元的上海工厂是特斯拉在美国以外开设的首家工厂，随着宝马和戴姆勒也将目光瞄准中国电动汽车市场，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克寄希望于这家超级工厂为其赢得竞争优势。一旦特斯拉开始降价，中国本土电动汽车企业如蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车势必将被迫跟进。

上海咨询公司Automobility 的创始人比尔·拉索表示，“价格是影响消费者购买的重要因素，此举将提升特斯拉电动汽车的市场份额，也会迫使竞争对手做出相应调整。”

在降价20%后，特斯拉Model 3的起售价将降至30万元以下。2019年11月，小鹏电动汽车宣布其旗下新款P7的定价将在27万元至37万元之间。蔚来汽车最便宜的ES6车型定价则将从358,000元起跳。

市场艰难

在政府缩减补贴之后，中国的电动汽车销量已经连续数月呈下降趋势。电动汽车厂商在空前低迷的市场中挣扎，使得竞争日趋白热化。

Tesla Inc. is considering cutting the price of its China-built Model 3 sedans by 20% or more this year, people familiar with the plans said, betting the move will lure buyers as the world’s biggest electric-vehicle market slows.

Tesla aims to bring down costs by using more local components, allowing it to import fewer parts and avoid tariffs, the people said, asking not to be identified as the matter isn’t public. Prices of the cars, which will be built in Tesla’s new Shanghai factory and start at 355,800 yuan ($50,800), will probably be lowered from the second half of 2020, they said.

Chief executive officer Elon Musk is counting on the multibillion-dollar Shanghai plant, Tesla’s first factory outside the U.S., to give it an edge over the likes of BMW AG and Daimler AG, which are also targeting China with new EV models. The move would also pressure local incumbents such as NIO Inc. and Xpeng Motors to follow suit with price cuts.

“People shop on price — this will help grow the market share of electric vehicles,” said Bill Russo, founder of Shanghai-based consulting firm Automobility Ltd. “This will also force the competing products to make adjustments.”

A 20% cut would bring the Model 3’s starting price below 300,000 yuan. Xpeng said on November 2019 its new P7 sedan will be priced at 270,000 yuan to 370,000 yuan. NIO’s ES6 sport utility vehicle, its cheapest model, starts at 358,000 yuan.

Tough Market

Competition is heating up as EV makers struggle through an unprecedented slump. Sales of electric cars have fallen for months in China after the government scaled back subsidies.

拉索表示，考虑降价说明特斯拉对竞争有清醒的认识，但降价也可能让更多消费者选择持币观望，影响特斯拉在中国市场的初期销售。马斯克曾经预测，到去年年底，特斯拉上海工厂的周产量将达到至少1000辆，而加州工厂达到这一数字曾花费数月时间，他还表示，未来该工厂的周产量将达到3,000辆。

随着市场预期特斯拉销售继续增长，其供应商股票也迎来一波上涨行情。汽车悬挂、减震系统制造商宁波托普集团的股票上涨了4.4%，零部件制造商宁波旭升汽车技术有限公司的股票更是大涨9.2％。

知情人士表示，此次降价具体时间和降价幅度或将视市场情况而定。特斯拉在中国的代表拒绝对此置评。

对电动汽车而言，电池通常是其最昂贵的部分，因而整车成本的削减主要取决于电池。去年8月有消息称，特斯拉目前的电池全部由日本松下公司提供，但情况正在发生改变，特斯拉已经与LG化学达成协议，将从距上海西北320公里的LG化学南京工厂采购电池。此外，去年11月有消息称，特斯拉还达成了一项协议，即在今年年初之前使用中国宁德时代公司的电池。

与此同时，特斯拉也在为上海工厂的新车交付做最后准备。根据中国有关部门披露的消息，国产Model 3将有资格获得高达每辆车24,750元的国家补贴，目前尚不清楚其中多少将直接让利给消费者。（财富中文网）

译者：梁宇

审校：夏林

While the potential price cut shows Tesla is cognizant of the competition, the move could also impact the company’s initial sales as customers hold out for the lower prices, Russo said. Musk has predicted Tesla will make at least 1,000 cars a week in Shanghai by the end of the year — a volume the company’s original factory in California spent months trying to hit — and has said a weekly rate of 3,000 is a target at some point.

Shares of Tesla’s suppliers rose on expectations of increasing sales. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co., which makes suspension and vibration-control mechanisms, jumped as much as 4.4%, while parts manufacturer Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co. advanced as much as 9.2%.

The scale of the price cuts and the timing could change depending on market situations, the people said. A Tesla representative in China declined to comment.

Much of the cost cuts will hinge on batteries, which are typically the most expensive part of an electric car. Tesla currently relies entirely on Japan’s Panasonic Corp. for batteries but that’s changing as it agreed to buy batteries from an LG Chem Ltd. factory that’s about 200 miles (320 kilometers) northwest of Shanghai, people familiar said in last August. Tesla also struck a pact to use batteries from China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. by as early asnext year, people familiar said on November 2019.

Meanwhile, Tesla has been making final preparations to begin deliveries from its Shanghai plant. This month, Chinese authorities disclosed that the locally built Model 3 will qualify for state subsidies of as high as 24,750 yuan per car, though it’s unclear how much of that rebate would go directly to customers.