20岁以下年轻人就业难，皆因爷爷辈“抢饭碗”

    本周晚些时候美国政府发布月度就业报告时，需要关注的一个重要数据不是失业率，而是就业率。毕竟，当前8.9%的美国失业率并不能告诉我们太多关于严峻就业形势的新情况。

    当然，就业率并不会给我们带来任何更乐观的消息，但它可以告诉我们哪些人有工作。在这轮伴随着高失业率的经济复苏中，一种最值得关注的趋势是就业人群年龄结构的巨大变化。在经济衰退前，美国最年轻的就业人群相比最年长的就业人群更易获得工作。现如今情况已并非如此。

    今天，爷爷辈比孙子辈更易获得工作，地处波士顿的美国东北大学(Northeastern University)劳动力市场研究中心的一项研究显示。

    这凸显了两股令人不安的趋势：一是老年人的经济拮据现状，很多退休者开始做起了通常由20岁以下年轻人承担的工作。

    二是这说明对于那些希望锻炼软技能、补贴家用的20岁以下年轻人而言，就业市场已变得非常严峻。事实上，十多年来美国就业市场中令人担忧的一股趋势正在加剧：16-19岁青少年的就业率自2000年以来稳步下降，而60-64岁老年人的就业率持续上升。婴儿潮一代出于各种原因（包括金融危机和经济衰退后股价大跌），要么延长了在原有岗位上的工作年限，要么做起了通常由年轻人承担的低技能工作。

    “现在许多老年人找的工作在十年前是属于20岁以下年轻人的”，美国东北大学劳动力市场研究中心主任、经济学教授安德鲁•萨姆表示。他指出，现在零售店、快餐厅里的工作越来越多地由老年人承担。除了当前的就业市场令雇主们更挑剔外，他们也更倾向于雇佣具有准时上班、服从安排等“软技能”的老年人。

    就业人群年龄结构的逆转初现于去年。2000年6月，20岁以下年轻人的就业率是65-69岁老年人的两倍多，前者的就业率是51%，大大高于老年人的23%。到了2010年6月，老年人的就业率已略高于20岁以下年轻人，前者为28.8%，而后者为28.6%。

    美国就业市场确实在改善，虽然非常缓慢，但20岁以下年轻人似乎错过了这场复苏。2月份招工需求强劲将美国总体失业率推低至近两年来最低，当月非农就业人数增加了192,000。上周美国劳工部（Labor Department）公布，27个州和哥伦比亚特区报告失业率下降，7个州失业率上升，16个州持平。失业率居于全美前列的加利福尼亚州2月份就业人数增加96,500，是全美就业人数增加最多的。

    即便是在就业人数增长的情况下，萨姆认为，20岁以下年轻人在与老年人的就业市场竞争中仍将败下阵来。诚然，这可能并不是个大问题。20岁以下年轻人在美国1.39亿就业人口（估算值）中占比相对较低，而且他们找不到工作也许根本就没什么大不了的——他们可能更应该将时间花在学校里，而不是工作上。

    但对于许多人而言，送报纸以及在当地冰激凌店的第一份工作就像是成人礼。即便是前途无限的企业高管们在回忆起第一份工作时也是充满感情的，比如谷歌(Google)搜索产品和用户体验副总裁玛丽莎•梅耶尔，梅耶尔16岁时就曾在威斯康辛州沃索的County Market做过收银员。

    “很多收银员都有多年工作经验，并且非常热爱自己的工作，这让我亲眼目睹了敬业的重要性，”去年梅耶尔曾这样告诉《财富》（Fortune）杂志。

    萨姆表示，在岗学习在美国内地城市尤为重要，然而这些地区目前20岁以下年轻人的就业率已降至最低点。在低收入地区，工作不仅仅是成人礼——还可能减少犯罪和暴力。

    因此，虽然这看起来是个小问题，但如果20岁以下年轻人错过美国复苏快车，未来可能引发更大的问题。

    When the U.S. government releases its monthly jobs report later this week, an important figure to note is not the unemployment rate but rather the employment rate. After all, the percentage of America's workforce without jobs, currently at 8.9%, isn't going to tell us much that we don't already know about the tough job climate.

    The employment rate won't promise better news either, but it offers a glimpse of who has jobs. One the most notable trends that's played out during this jobless recovery has been the dramatic shift in the age structure of employment. Before the recession, the nation's youngest workers were more likely to have collected a paycheck than the eldest workers. That's not necessarily the case these days.

    Today, grandpa is more likely to earn a paycheck than his grandson, according to research by the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University in Boston.

    The findings highlight two disturbing trends: First, they reveal just how financially strained seniors have become as many in retirement age fill jobs typically sought by teens.

    What's more, the findings underscore just how tough the market has become for teens looking to build soft skills and help with family finances. In fact, today's job market is exacerbating a trend that's been worrying for more than a decade: employment among 16 to 19-year-olds has been steadily declining since 2000 while employment among 60 to 64 year-old adults has consistently risen. Baby boomers have either stayed at their jobs longer, or taken lower-skills jobs ordinarily filled by younger workers, for various reasons that include the plunge in stock prices following the financial crisis and the recession.

    "A lot of the jobs older people have taken would have gone to teenagers a decade ago," says Andrew Sum, economics professor and director of the labor market studies center. Sum points to jobs in retail stores and fast-food restaurants that are increasingly being filled by older workers. Aside from the fact that the job market has made employers a lot choosier, they're also more inclined to hire older workers with "soft skills," such as showing up on time, taking orders and so forth.

    The age reversal emerged for the first time last year. In June 2000, teens were more than twice as likely to have a job as adults age 65 to 69, with teen employment at 51% versus senior employment at 23%. By June 2010, older adults were modestly more likely to be working than teens, with 28.8% of seniors employed versus 28.6% of teens.

    It's true that the job market is improving, albeit very slowly, but teens have been losing out on the recovery. Strong hiring in February pushed the overall unemployment rate down to the lowest level in nearly two years as employers added 192,000 jobs to non-farm payrolls. Last week, the Labor Department reported that 27 states and the District of Columbia reported a drop in the unemployment rate, while seven states reported rate increases and 16 had no change. California, among the states with the highest unemployment rate, added 96,500 jobs in February and had the biggest increase in employment.

    Even with the gains, Sum says teens will continue to lose as they compete with older workers amid the tight job market. To be sure, this could be viewed as a lesser concern. Teens make up a relatively small part of the estimated 139 million people employed in the U.S. and it's arguable whether the lack of employment is even that big of a deal -- perhaps young people are better off spending time on school than work.

    But for many people, that first job on a paper route or at the local ice cream parlor has served as sort of a rite of passage. Even rising corporate executives recall their first jobs fondly, including Marissa Mayer, Google's (GOOG) vice president of search products and user experience, who at 16 years old worked as a checkout clerk at the County Market in Wausau, WI.

    "Many of the cashiers had years of experience and were very committed to their jobs, so I saw firsthand the importance of a great work ethic," Mayer told Fortune last year.

    Sum says on-the-job learning is especially important in America's inner-cities, where teen employment is at its lowest. In lower-income areas, a job is more than a rite of passage -- it has the potential to reduce crime and violence.

    So even if the problem appears to be small, leaving teens out of America's recovery could have bigger consequences in the future.