信平台，不挂科？

    从商业计划到选举结果，预测性分析在消除不确定性方面已经做了很多工作，它的下一个目标则是学生们的考试成绩。

    美国高校及中学在线教育服务商Desire2Learn首席执行官约翰•贝克表示，该公司的新技术能提前几个月预测学生的期末考试成绩，而且能精确到小数点后两位。

    这是一种实时预测，也就是说并非一成不变。如果学生加以努力，就能很轻松地改变Desire2Learn预估的期末成绩。贝克指出，这就是要点所在，预测成绩的作用就是让学生和教师在学期远未结束时就能发现哪些人有考试不及格的趋势。

    贝克说：“最重要的一点并不是告诉学生‘你得这样做’，而是真正有助于（建立）一种教育体系，从而让每个人都获得专门为自己定制的学习体验。”

    这种新技术叫做学生过关系统（Student Success System）。它能综合考虑学生对一门课程中关键概念的理解以及他们按要求完成家庭作业的情况，预测他们的成绩。教师可以在整个学期中跟踪学生的学习进展，以确保他们能顺利通过期末考试。

    学生过关系统是Desire2Learn现有学习平台Degree Compass的补充。这个平台能根据以往的学习情况向学生们推荐适合他们学习风格、并且最有可能通过考试的课程。今年1月份，Desire2Learn从奥斯汀皮耶州立大学（Austin Peay University）手中收购了Degree Compass，但没有披露交易金额。贝克说，从那时起，通过这个平台选课的学生已超过70万人次。因此，Degree Compass按字母评分制预测成绩的准确率达90%——甚至可以在课程开始前就做出预测（贝克认为判断学生过关系统的准确程度还为时过早）。贝克指出，目前使用Degree Compass的有四所大学——奥斯汀皮耶州立大学、孟菲斯大学（University of Memphis）和两所社区大学，预计其他高校将很快成为这个平台的用户。今年夏天，Desire2Learn将向几十位用户推出学生过关系统。

    在奥斯汀皮耶州立大学，Degree Compass已经改变了学生们的学习情况。这项技术的发明者、该校教务长特里斯坦•登利表示，2011年春天使用该系统以来，学校的整体及格率提高了2个百分点，佩尔奖学金（Pell Grant，侧重于来自低收入家庭的本科生）发放对象的及格率更是上升了4个百分点。在后者的人际圈子里，上过大学而且支持他们念大学的人通常较少。登利说：“看到通过率有这种幅度的提升，而且确确实实覆盖了从大一到大四各种层次的学生，很难再到其他地方去寻找原因。”

    From business plans to election outcomes, predictive analytics have come a long way in eliminating uncertainty. Next on the list of targets: student GPAs.

    New technology from Desire2Learn, an education company offering online learning tools to colleges and high schools across the country, is able to predict a student's final grade -- down to the percentage -- months before the final exam, says Desire2Learn CEO John Baker.

    The predictions are in real time, meaning they are not set in stone, and a boost in effort or studying can easily change the estimated final grade. And that's the point, says Baker; for students and teachers to recognize a student is headed toward a failing grade before it's too late in the semester.

    "The biggest thing," says Baker, "is not just driving towards, 'okay, here's how you're going to do,' but really helping to [build] an education system that personalizes the experience to each individual."

    The new technology, simply called the Student Success System, is able to make predictions by incorporating a student's understanding of key concepts of a given course and whether or not they are keeping up with the required homework. Teachers can track a student's progress throughout the semester to ensure they stay on track to pass the class.

    This new system acts as a complement to the company's existing Degree Compass platform, which uses a student's academic history to suggest courses that fit their learning style and offer the best chance for a passing grade. Desire2Learn bought Degree Compass from Austin Peay University in January for an undisclosed sum and has since run more than 700,000 course enrollments through the program, says Baker. As a result, Degree Compass can successfully predict letter grades with 90% accuracy -- all before a student ever begins taking the class. (It is too early to tell how accurate the Student Success System is, says Baker.) Four schools -- Austin Peay, the University of Memphis, and two community colleges -- currently use Degree Compass, with others expected to join in the near future, says Baker. The Student Success System will roll out to a few dozen Desire2Learn clients beginning this summer.

    At Austin Peay, Degree Compass has already made a difference for students. Since implementing the program in spring of 2011, Austin Peay has seen a 2% increase in students passing classes university-wide and a 4% jump among Pell Grant students, who often have fewer college-educated supporters in their personal circles, says the technology's creator and university provost Tristan Denley. "When you see this same kind of increase in student success, which is literally all across the board freshmen through seniors at every level, it's difficult to look in another direction to find the cause," says Denley. These increases are significant, he adds, because it expedites the graduation process and saves students time and money.