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专栏 - 苹果2_0

Piper Jaffray: iPad 2全部售空,70%卖给了新买家

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年03月16日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
截至上周日,美国投资银行Piper Jaffray分析师吉恩•曼斯特的团队,在任何零售店都见不到苹果平板电脑的踪影。

上周五下午的苹果第五大道专卖店。图片来源:PED

    在纽约市和明尼阿波利斯,吉恩•曼斯特的团队走访了等着购买iPad 2的长长的队伍,采访了236位热切的买家。此外,他们还打电话给各类零售商(苹果商店、塔吉特、百思买,等等),询问产品的情况。其调研结果于上周日晚公布,如下:

    •曼斯特坚持他的预测,即iPad2将卖出40万~50万台。相较之下,去年iPad 1首发那个周末,卖出了30万台。

    区别在于,几乎所有的iPad 2都于一天之内售空;到周六,商店的库房内,iPad 2已经弹尽粮绝,而且未有新货补充。周末,曼斯特团队在打电话给零售商时发现,他们根本无法找到一台iPad 2。

    购买iPad 2的人中,有70%是首次购买iPad;相较之下,iPhone 4发布时,只有23%的买家属于新顾客。

    •购买者中,Mac系统用户和PC用户几乎各占半壁江山(51%/49%)。相较之下,iPad 1发布时,购买者中Mac系统用户和PC用户的比例为74%/26%。

    • 有47%的购买者买的是3G机型。该款机型需要额外付费130美元。

    •有41%的人买的是32GB iPad 2,而当时购买32GB iPad 1的人比例为32%。还有少数人买了64GB机型。这意味着,iPad 2首发时的平均售价(ASP)要远远高于iPad 1。(曼斯特并未提及,在许多专卖店,最先售空的是16GB的iPad,接下来是32GB机型。这可能是推高iPad 2首发日平均售价的一个原因。)

    •65%的购买者已经拥有一部iPhone,24%的人手中已有一部Kindle(在iPad 1的购买者中,此比例为13%),但是,仅有6%的人计划用iPad阅读(iPad 1发布时,Piper Jaffray亦进行了类似的调研,彼时这一比例是19%)。

    •有17%的人希望用iPad 2使用应用程序或者玩游戏;iPad 1发布时,这一比例只有9%。这说明,苹果应用商店(App Store)生态系统在迅速成长壮大。

    曼斯特表示,新购买者的数量尤其重要:

    “我们认为,这一现象表明,苹果iPad 用户群在不断扩大。这对于苹果保持其在迅速成长的平板电脑市场的领先地位至关重要。随着用户群的扩大,苹果的领先优势也随之扩大,而建立无与伦比的品牌忠诚度,正是苹果一直以来所擅长的。我们认为,随着平板电脑市场进一步发展壮大,这些将成为苹果强有力的优势。”

    以下是Piper Jaffray调研的细节:

    Gene Munster's team at Piper Jaffray walked the iPad 2 lines in New York City and Minneapolis and interviewed 236 would-be buyers. They also called various retailers (Apple stores, Target, Best Buy, etc.) looking for product. The results of their survey were released Sunday night. Their findings:

    • Munster is sticking with his estimate of 400,000 to 500,000 iPad 2s sold, compared with 300,000 iPad 1s in its first weekend last year.

    • The difference is that nearly all those iPad 2s were sold in one day; stocks were essentially depleted by Saturday and not replenished. In its calls to retailers over the weekend, his team was unable to find a single iPad 2.

    • 70% of iPad 2 buyers were new to the iPad, compared with 23% of iPhone 4 buyers who were new to the iPhone at launch.

    • Buyers were split almost evenly between Mac and PC users (51%/49%). By contrast, the split for the original iPad was 74%/26%.

    • 47% of buyers were purchasing a 3G model, which carries a $130 premium.

    • 41% purchased the 32GB iPad 2, up from 32% who bought the 32GB version of the original iPad. The 64GB models also gained a slight share. This means that the iPad 2's average selling price (ASP) at launch was considerably higher than original iPad's. (Munster doesn't mention that at many outlets, Apple (AAPL) ran out of 16GB iPads first, then 32BG models, which may have been a factor pushing up the launch-day ASP.)

    • 65% of buyers owned an iPhone, 24% owned a Kindle (up from 13% of original iPad buyers), but only 6% plan to read with their iPad (down from 19% in Piper Jaffray's first iPad survey).

    • 17% expect to use apps and play games, up from 9%, which suggests that the App Store ecosystem is growing.

    The number new buyers was particularly significant, says Munster:

    "We believe this shows Apple is expanding its base of iPad users, which is critical to maintaining its early lead in the growing tablet market. As the user base grows Apple's lead widens, and the company has a proven track record of building unmatched brand loyalty, which we believe will be a potent combination as the tablet market evolves."

    Below: The details of the Piper Jaffray survey:

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