吉姆•达林普本周一在The Loop网站上发表了一篇报道，称苹果公司（Apple）在今年六月的全球开发者大会（Worldwide Developers Conference）上将不会发布任何新硬件。几位华尔街分析师最终总算明白了这篇报道的重要性。

    正如满银资本市场（BMO Capital）的分析师基思•巴克曼和杰富瑞公司（Jefferies & Co）的分析师彼得•米塞克本周三向客户们所解释的那样，这篇报导意味着自从2007年以来，苹果公司今年夏天将首次不推出一款新iPhone。

    消息一出，华尔街不出所料地出现了一些抛售行为。截止到当天10点30分，苹果股价下跌了3.05美元（0.9%）。美国知名金融分析师詹森•施瓦茨也在“寻找阿尔法”博客（Seeking Alpha）上发表了一篇“愤怒声讨博客圈”的博文，文章开头就火药味十足。

    “今天我们算是知道史蒂夫•乔布斯为什么不喜欢写博的人了。”

    然后他继续口诛笔伐，讥讽这则“最近的谣言”是从“博客圈的北大荒”里冒出来的。然后怒斥达林普和另一位在TechCrunch博客上发表了类似报道的博客写手MG•西格勒是“想为自己扬名立腕的无名博客人”。

    这从何说起呢？

    首先要声明的是，关于苹果是否发布、以及何时发布传说中的iPhone 5，我们没有任何内幕消息。

    不过我们已经关注西格勒和达林普很长时间了，足够明白这样一个事实——施瓦茨分辨不出谁是好的博客人。

    多年以来，事实早已证明，西格勒在苹果公司有极佳的新闻来源，而达林普的新闻来源可能更加可靠，他曾担任《苹果世界》（Macworld）的新闻总监近10年之久。

    在我们轻易下定论之前，我想我们应该先问问达林普，看看他那篇名为《今夏苹果全球开发者大会将不会发布新iPhone、iPad或Mac硬件》（"No iPhone, iPad or Mac hardware coming at WWDC"）的博文里，究竟有多少信息如施瓦茨所说，是达林普根据全球开发者大会邀请函的措辞推测出来的；又有多少信息来自于他在苹果公司的新闻来源。达林普回复道：

    “本文完全不是我的单方猜测。我有很好的新闻来源，他们已经证实我本周一的博文属实。”

    施瓦茨过去曾经写过一些很有道理的文章，分析了对冲基金如何能够通过散布恐慌、不确定性和疑虑等情绪来操纵苹果的股价（延伸阅读：《乘上苹果的火箭》）。最近有关iPhone 5的传言沸沸扬扬，这次施瓦茨在“寻找阿尔法”博客上发表的檄文的确为这个问题的探讨做出了一些有用的贡献。

    他写道：“过去几天里，苹果的价格动向波澜不惊，说明有关iPhone 5的传言并不是来自对冲基金。如果是对冲基金想要进攻苹果，那么苹果的股价会下跌20美元。尽管苹果的表现弱于大盘，不过它仍然顶住了关于iPhone 5的传言的压力，并在本周二以升幅收盘。一般来说在三四月份，3到5美元的跌价抛售是很正常的。如果超过这个幅度，就应该引起我们的关注了。地球上每支对冲基金都知道你想趁三月份的低位买入苹果，所以如果对冲基金想散布虚假谣言的话，他们不会选在这个时候，而最可能在苹果股价处于高位，并且准备进行技术调整的时候出手。”

    长见识了。

    译者：朴成奎

    Several Wall Street analysts finally caught on to the significance of Jim Dalrymple's report in The LoopMonday that there would be no new hardware unveiled at Apple's (AAPL) Worldwide Developers Conference in June.

    What this may mean -- as BMO Capital's Keith Bachman and Jefferies & Co.'s Peter Misekexplained to clients Wednesday -- is that for the first time since 2007, summer will come and go without a new iPhone.

    All this triggered some predictable selling on Wall Street -- by 10:30 the stock was down $3.05 (0.9%) -- and a furious note on Seeking Alpha by Jason Schwarz that began with a bang:

    "Today we have a perfect example of why Steve Jobs hates bloggers."

    He goes on to ridicule the "latest rumor" out of the "wild west of a blogosphere" and to characterize Dalrymple and MG Siegler, who posted a similar report on TechCrunch, as "no-name bloggers looking to make a name for themselves."

    Well now. Where to begin?

    Let's stipulate at the outset that we don't have any inside information about when or even if Apple intends to release the much-rumored iPhone 5.

    But we've been following Siegler and Dalrymple long enough to recognize that Schwarz doesn't know a good blogger from a bad one.

    Siegler has proved over the years to have excellent Apple sources and Dalrymple, who was the news director at Macworld for nearly a decade, may have even better.

    But before we went too far out on a limb, we thought we'd ask Jim how much of his "No iPhone, iPad or Mac hardware coming at WWDC" post was, as Schwarz suggests, speculation based on the wording of the WWDC invitation, and how much came from his Apple sources. His reply:

    "This isn't speculation on my part at all. I have very good sources that have confirmed my Monday post to be true."

    Schwarz, who has written some sensible things in the past about how hedge funds can manipulate Apple's share price by spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt (see Riding the AAPL slingshot), does make a useful contribution to the discussion in his Seeking Alpha piece.

    "Apple's calm price action over the last few days," he writes, "would indicate that these iPhone 5 rumors did not originate among the hedge funds. If the hedge funds wanted to blast Apple, the stock would be down $20. Although Apple has underperformed the broad market, it was able to withstand the pressure of the iPhone 5 rumor to finish Tuesday in positive territory. $3 to $5 selloffs are typical during this March/April run; anything more than that would have us concerned. Every hedge fund on earth knows that you want to own Apple off the March low; if those guys wanted to spread a false rumor, they would most likely do it when Apple is at a high and ready for a technical correction."

    Good to know.