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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果的关键时刻:有走漏风声吗?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年04月08日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
在纳斯达克消息发布前的两个交易日,苹果公司的股票交易存在可疑之处

点击放大。图片来源:雅虎财经

    上图中蓝线的4月5日起始缺口反映了周二苹果公司(Apple)股价的跳空低开,开盘即跌4.2美元(跌幅1.2%)。这是继前夜纳斯达克(NASDAQ)宣布调低苹果股票在广受关注的纳斯达克100指数(NASDAQ-100)中的权重后,基金经理们能相应调整其组合头寸的第一时机。

    所以周二开盘下跌是意料之中的事情。

    让人费解的是4月1日苹果股票收盘下跌6.55美元(跌幅1.9%),而且大部分下跌都是在下午2点后发生的。接着,周一又跌3.37美元(跌幅1%),虽然当日道琼斯(Dow)指数上涨,而且有几位分析师还调高了苹果股票的目标价。

    在那些感觉到上周五的苹果股票交易中存在疑点的人中,有Minyanville Media的首席执行官托德•哈里森,本周二他向美国证交会(SEC)提出了警告。

    “难道这看起来不像是有人在上周五下午2点(当时苹果股票的市价超过348美元)已接到将调低苹果权重的消息吗?这可以解释为何消息公布前股价出现押注式的下跌……以及为何消息公布后市场反应不大。”

    The gap in the blue line on April 5 in the chart at right reflects the $4.2 (1.2%) traders knocked off Apple's share price at the opening bell Tuesday -- the first opportunity money managers had to rebalance their portfolios after NASDAQ announced in the middle of the night that it was reducing Apple's weight in the closely followed NASDAQ-100.

    This was to be expected.

    What was not expected was the $6.55 (1.9%) hit Apple's shares took on April 1 -- most of it after 2 p.m. -- followed by another $3.37 (1%) loss on Monday, a day when the Dow was up and a couple analysts raised their Apple target prices.

    Among those who smelled something fishy in Friday's trading is Minyanville Media CEO Todd Harrison, who posted this red flag for the SEC on Tuesday:

    "Doesn't it feel as if someone got the call regarding the Apple (AAPL) re-weighting at 2PM on Friday afternoon, when the stock was trading at $348 and change? That would explain the twelve-handle dip into the news... as well as the lack of reaction today on the news."

 

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