“如果你有本事让一只好股下跌，那你也能让它蓄势上扬。就象弹弓，你拉得越用力，推进力就越大。”

    在2009年12月发表的题为“短线交易者青睐苹果股的七大原因”（ Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It）的文章中，作家、投资咨询顾问杰森 • 斯瓦尔兹这样描述这场对冲基金与苹果之间的游戏。文章发表第二天我们还进行了专题报道。

    他提出的几点中，有一点现在仍值得回味。当时，这支股票的价位三个月以来都在低谷徘徊，而苹果公司在那个周三将会发布创纪录的第二季度收益报告。

    苹果总能绝地反弹。从长期来看，苹果的基本面将不断推动其股价上扬。但对冲基金却希望将收益最大化。拉低一支绩优股持续下跌，对冲基金就能从快速换手中获利，而不必始终保持满仓操作。

    针对苹果自今年三月末以来一直表现低迷，任何一位关注苹果的投资者都可以列出个中缘由：日本海啸和供应链问题、iPad 2缺货、iPhone 5延迟上市、纳斯达克100指数（NASDAQ-100）权重调整以及一直以来媒体对史蒂夫•乔布斯健康问题的炒作。

    但请记住：直至上周五，苹果股票的历史市盈率为18.27，如果扣除其600亿美元的现金及有价证券，这个数值则为14.7。

    纳斯达克100指数成份股公司的平均市盈率为17。这其中有多少公司的年收益增长率能达到70%至80%呢？

    苹果股票本周会如何表现，我们现在还无从定论，但可以肯定的是，摩根大通（J.P Morgan）的马克 • 莫斯克维兹上周五发给客户的关于苹果公司的报告标题是“苹果[股价]回调过头了。”

    "If you can keep a good stock down, then you are able to load up for the ride back up. It's like a slingshot -- the harder you pull, the more propulsion you generate."

    That's how Jason Schwarz, an author and investment adviser, described the game that hedge funds play with Apple (AAPL) in an article entitled "Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It," -- a Dec. 2009 piece we liked enough to feature the next day.

    One of the points he made then is worth remembering now, with the stock hovering near a three month low and the company expected to report record second fiscal quarter earnings on Wednesday:

    Apple always bounces back. Over the long run, Apple fundamentals will certainly take the stock higher, but hedge funds want to maximize the ride. Keeping a great stock down allows them to profit from quick predetermined trades rather than being fully invested all the time.

    Any Apple investor who's been paying attention can list the reasons being trotted out for the stock's dismal performance since late March: the Japanese tsunami and supply chain concerns, the iPad 2 stockouts, the iPhone 5 "delay," the NASDAQ-100 rebalancing and the usual concerns about Steve Jobs' health.

    But remember this: Apple's shares as of Friday had a trailing P/E of 18.27 -- 14.7 if you subtract out its nearly $60 billion in cash and marketable securities.

    The average P/E of the NASDAQ-100 is 17, and how many of those companies are growing their earning at 70% to 80% a year?

    We can't say for certain what Apple's shares will do next week. But we can report that the headline of the Apple note J.P Morgan's Mark Moskowitz sent to clients Friday was "The Pullback Is Overdone."