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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果iPhone手机“大势已去”?果真如此吗?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年05月16日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
再看所谓的“苹果公司四年来在手机市场的大好局面已松动”的说法

 图片来源:Asymco

    Business Insider的亨利•布罗吉特可能会后悔——如果之前还没后悔的话——用了“大势已去”来描述苹果公司(Apple)的iPhone手机在一次comScore市场份额调查中的表现。正如布罗吉特的标题,该次调查似乎显示“Android势如破竹。”

    布罗吉特所提到的这次comScore调查显示,截至2月份的三个月,谷歌(Google)Android手机在美国智能手机市场的份额增长了7个百分点(至33%),同期苹果仅增长0.2个百分点(至25.2%)。

    但根据Asymco的贺拉斯•德迪乌上周三发布的图表,iPhone的大好局面看来根本就没有松动。

    事实上,一季度iPhone销售同比增长113%,在火爆的假日销售季后仍在加速。现在,苹果已是全球第四大受欢迎的手机厂商,超越了Research in Motion、宏达电(HTC)、摩托罗拉(Motorola)、索爱(Sony Ericsson)和中兴通讯。

    “那么,什么让iPhone大势已去?”德迪乌反问道。

    “这种说法,”他写道,“是基于(1)份额;(2)移动平台;(3)装机量;(4)在美国。换言之,如果在整个市场以近三位数增幅增长时,比较美国所有在用的Android手机和iPhones手机(忽略其他非iPhone的iOS设备),那么iPhone的市场份额扩大确实(有限)。”

    “以这种方式来说明产品增长放缓,很难让人理解”。

    你可以阅读德迪乌对布罗吉特观点的其他质疑——并订阅Asymco的RSS feed – 点击这里

    Business Insider's Henry Blodget may come to regret -- if he doesn't already -- using the phrase "dead in the water" to describe the performance of Apple's (AAPL) iPhone in a comScore market share survey that seemed to show, as Blodget's headline put it, that "Android is destroying everyone."

    The comScore survey to which Blodget was referring showed Google's (GOOG) Android share of the U.S. smartphone market growing 7 percentage points (to 33%) in the three months ending February while Apple's grew only 0.2 (to 25.2%).

    But the iPhone certainly doesn't look like it's drifting in the chart Asymco's Horace Dediu published Wednesday.

    In fact, iPhone sales grew 113% year over year last quarter, gaining steam even after the big holiday quarter. Apple is now the fourth most popular cell phone vendor in the world, bigger than Research in Motion (RIMM), HTC, Motorola (MOT), Sony Ericsson (SNE, ERIC) and ZTE.

    "So what makes the iPhone dead in the water?" Dediu asks rhetorically.

    "The claim," he writes, "was made relative to the (a) share of (b) mobile platforms (c) installed base (d) in the US. In other words, if one adds all Android phones in use vs. the iPhones in use in the US (while ignoring iOS devices other than iPhone) while the market is growing at nearly triple digit rates, then the iPhone is not gaining (much) share.

    "That's the most obtuse way of suggesting a slowing product."

    You can read the rest of Dediu's Blodget takedown -- and subscribe to Asymco's RSS feed -- here.

 

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