眼下已到了第二季度中段，投资公司Sterne Agee的分析师吴肖（Shaw Wu，音译）与他在苹果公司供应链中的消息来源进行了核实之后，于上周五提高了他对iPad2的销量预期，并把苹果的目标股价由445美元上调到460美元。尽管最近卖方分析师的热情很高，但苹果股价未受影响，上周五仅收于340.53美元。

    吴肖的报告中有以下亮点：

    • 一季度影响iPad出货量的生产问题已经“得到了显著改善”。他还写道：“随着旧生产线的成功改组，以及更多生产线转变为iPad2的生产线，苹果的收益和产量也有所提高。”但最近有报道指出苹果公司出现了“零件荒”和“用工荒”。吴肖的报告在这一点上与那些报道有些出入。

    • 吴肖提出的目标是，到2011年下半年，iPad的出货量会达到每月300万到400万台。他表示，要达到这个目标，iPad“还有一段路要走”，但是现在离这个目标“越来越近了”。

    • 消费者对iPhone4的需求优于预期，这要归功于白色iPhone的延期发布，以及美国用户对Verizon版iPhone的“持续强劲采用”，还有国际市场对iPhone4的热情。

    • 苹果最近在iMacs电脑上使用了英特尔Sandy Bridge四核处理器，新iMacs电脑的“渠道反馈”非常“强劲”，这使吴肖相信，苹果一度“拖后腿”的台式电脑业务必然会出现反弹。

    吴肖吴对苹果公司第二季度（截止到6月25日）的预测是：iPad的销量从先前预测的590万台上涨到680万台；iPhone的销量从先前预测的1600万台上涨到1700万台。Mac电脑的销量从先前预测的383万台上涨到390万台。而由于iPad的收益改善，iPhone的销量增加，因此吴肖也将苹果二季度的毛利率由先前预测的38.3%上调到了39%。

    译者：朴成奎

    Following a mid second-quarter check with his sources in Apple's (AAPL) supply chain, Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu raised his unit sales estimates Friday as well as his price target: to $460 to $445. The stock, which has been impervious to the enthusiasms of sell-side analysts lately, closed Thursday at $340.53.

    Among the highlights of the new report:

    • The production problems that hurt iPad shipments last quarter have "significantly improved," writes Wu, "with better yields and higher output due to successful retooling and conversion of more production lines to iPad 2." This would appear to contradict recent reports of shortages of both components and labor.

    • The iPad "still has a ways" to go to hit what Wu says is Apple's goal of 3-4 million units per month by the second half of 2011, but is "getting closer."

    • Demand for the iPhone 4 appears to be holding up better than expected, thanks to the belated launch of the white iPhone and what Wu says is "continued strong adoption" at Verizon (VZ) and Apple's international markets.

    • "Channel feedback" on Apple's recently refreshed Intel (INTC) Sandy Bridge quad-core iMacs is "strong," leading Wu to believe Apple's desktop Mac business, which had been "a laggard," is set to rebound.

    Wu's new estimates for the quarter than ends June 25: 6.8 million iPads (from 5.9 million), 17 million iPhones (from 16 million), and 3.9 million Macs (from 3.83 million) and a gross margin of 39% (from 38.3%) due to improved iPad yields and higher iPhone sales.