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专栏 - 苹果2_0

iPhone、Android全面夹击,黑莓节节败退

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年06月22日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
RIM不得不降低其指导性收入预测,并进行裁员,这并非偶然。

来源:Needham & Co.

    上周五,黑莓手机生产商Research in Motion大幅下调了其2012年的指导性收入预测,并警告即将进行裁员,消息一出,该公司便遭到分析师们的围攻。比如巴伦周刊(Barron's)网站的这篇文章。

    大部分分析师都认可,是苹果(Apple)iPhone和谷歌(Google)Android使得黑莓(BlackBerry)被边缘化。但他们都没有投资银行和资产管理公司Needham的查理•乌尔夫直率,乌尔夫将自己致客户的报告命名为《RIMM:你那一招不管用了,你该何去何从?》("RIMM: What do you do when your one trick no longer works?")。

    该报告最关键的一段如下:

    眼见黑莓在美国智能手机市场的份额开始下滑,2009年,Research in Motion做出了一个战略性决策:试图用国际市场的增长来弥补美国市场的份额流失。黑莓在美国市场的份额减少最初表现是美国最大的电信运营商Verizon将其主打品牌从黑莓变成Android。Verizon曾将黑莓作为iPhone的替代品进行推广,希望依靠稳定的“买一送一”促销攻势支撑黑莓的销量。然而,这一策略事与愿违,因为在人们眼中,黑莓与iPhone完全不是一回事。在2009年第四季度,Verizon开始力捧Android,据称其在Verizon Droid品牌上的花费超过了1亿美元。Verizon仍在继续进行黑莓的“买一送一”活动,但已不再大肆宣传,黑莓在Verizon的份额已经开始下降。

    译者:项航

    The analysts were all over Research in Motion (RIMM) Friday after the company issued sharply lower guidance for 2012 and warned of forthcoming layoffs. See, for example, Barron's take here.

    Most recognized the role Apple (AAPL)'s iPhone and Google's (GOOG) Android played in marginalizing the BlackBerry. But none of them were quite as blunt as Needham's Charlie Wolf, who titled his note to clients "RIMM: What do you do when your one trick no longer works?"

    The key paragraph:

    Watching BlackBerry's share in the U.S. smartphone market beginning to crumble, Research in Motion made the strategic decision in 2009 to attempt to offset U.S. share losses through growth in international markets. BlackBerry's loss of share in the U.S. initially reflected Verizon's decision to switch its "halo" brand status from BlackBerry to Android. Verizon had promoted BlackBerry as an alternative to the iPhone, relying on a steady barrage of buy-one, get-one- free (BOGO) promotions to bolster BlackBerry sales. But the strategy backfired because there was no mistaking a BlackBerry for an iPhone. In the fourth quarter of 2009, Verizon hitched its wagon to Android, reportedly spending over $100 million to build the Verizon Droid brand. Verizon continued to offer BlackBerry BOGOs. But no longer in the spotlight, BlackBerry's share at Verizon began to recede.

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