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专栏 - 苹果2_0

三大被低估的科技股:谷歌、苹果和IBM

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年06月23日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
同样采用PEG指标,最被高估的3只科技股是亚马逊,思科系统和Netflix

日期: 纳斯达克。图表:PED

    以下是一位读者所建议的简单演算:

    选取一只你感兴趣的股票,计算其市盈率相对盈利增长比率,该指标也常常被称为PEG比率。公式如下:

    Here's a simple exercise suggested by one of my readers.

    Take a stock you're interested in and calculate its price/earnings to growth ratio, better known as its PEG ratio. The formula looks like this:

    大力倡导PEG比率的彼得•林奇认为,任何公司的市盈率如果合理,都会等于其盈利增长率。换言之,一只股票的PEG比率若低于1,该股可能被低估。反之,如果你购入的股票PEG高于1,你可能多付了钱。

    那么,苹果(Apple)的PEG比率如何呢?根据纳斯达克网站,其PEG比率为0.73,显著低于1.0。该网站采用的是金融分析师们对未来12个月每股收益和盈利增长率预估的平均值。唯一一只PEG比率更低的大型科技股是谷歌(Google),为0.59。在估值区间的另一头是亚马逊(Amazon)、思科系统(Cisco)和Netflix,12个月PEG比率分别为10.65、8.03和6.71。

    好好想想吧!

    According to Peter Lynch, who popularized the measure, the P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate. In other words, a stock with a PEG ratio less than one is probably undervalued. Conversely, if you're paying more than a PEG of 1.0 for a stock, you're probably paying too much.

    So what's Apple's (AAPL) PEG Ratio? According to NASDAQ's website, which uses the 12-month forecast earnings and growth rates of a consensus of financial analysts, it's 0.73, considerably less than 1.0. The only major tech stock with a lower PEG ratio is Google (GOOG) at 0.59. On the other end of the spectrum are Amazon (AMZN), Cisco (CSCO) and Netflix (NFLX) with 12-month PEG ratios of 10.65, 8.03 and 6.71, respectively.

    Go figure.

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