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专栏 - 苹果2_0

瞄准9亿中国手机用户,苹果有望打造奇迹

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年06月28日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
有报道称苹果即将与全球最大的运营商达成协议,这究竟意味着什么?

库克(穿蓝上衣者)出现在中国移动总部,图片来源:M.I.C. Gadget

    证券公司Ticonderoga Securities的首席苹果(Apple)分析师布莱恩•怀特在自己的电脑里存了这样一段文字:

    “我们认为中国移动互联网的发展将成为未来十年科技界的伟大奇迹之一,中国人显然对苹果非常狂热,我们认为随着苹果将合作对象扩大到中国移动(China Mobile)和中国电信(China Telecom),这种热度一定还会继续上升。”

    上周四,怀特两次引用了上面这段话。

    第一次是苹果首席运营官蒂姆•库克在中国移动总部露面(照片很不清晰,只有库克的背影),怀特对此事发表评论。中国移动是世界最大的移动电话运营商,拥有6.11亿无线用户。(库克的消息见链接。)

    四个小时后,怀特在转载一篇报道时又引用了“伟大奇迹”。该报道称,中国移动的一名员工通过微博(即中国版的Twitter)称,中国移动将于9月份发售iPhone 5。到周五时,《上海日报》(Shanghai Daily)和路透社(Reuters)都转载了这篇报道。

    对于这些报道在十年后的重要意义,怀特的判断也许是正确的。但对于苹果的投资者而言,现在就开始计算这几亿用户未免为时太早。

    因为,通信协议是个大问题。

    虽然苹果在大中华区的业务正在蓬勃发展,2011年上半年的销售额已经达到50亿美元,而2010年全年才为30亿美元。不过在中国8.96亿移动用户中,苹果仅仅占据了很小的份额。

    首先,中国有三家主要的运营商,但苹果仅和第二大运营商中国联通(China Unicom)达成了合作协议;其次,中国拥有近9亿移动用户,但只有7,400万用户能够使用3G网络;最后,中国移动的3G网络使用的是本土协议——TD-SCDMA,和苹果目前的iPhone并不兼容。怀特在上周四提议称,苹果需要专门制作一款能在中国移动网络上运行的iPhone 5,而苹果到目前为止还不大情愿这样做。

    中国移动已宣布,一旦LTE(长期演技技术)网络准备就绪,将发售苹果4G iPhone。不过具体时间尚不清楚。

    蒂姆•库克上周在中国达成的一系列协议有朝一日可能会成为技术世界的伟大奇迹,但不大可能会是9月份。

    译者:项航

    Brian White, Ticonderoga Securities' chief Apple (AAPL) analyst, has a boilerplate sentence stored on his computer that goes like this:

    "We believe the ramp of the mobile Internet in China will be one of the great wonders of the tech world over the next decade and the country has clearly caught "Apple fever" that we believe will only accelerate as the company expands it carrier base to include both China Mobile and China Telecom."

    White used his "great wonder of the tech world" sentence twice on Thursday.

    Once when he commented on COO Tim Cook's appearance (and a blurry photograph of his back) in the headquarters of China Mobile (CHL), the world's largest mobile phone company with 611 million wireless subscribers. (See here.)

    And again, four hours later, when he passed along a report that one of China Mobile's employees had posted a weibo message (a Chinese tweet) indicating that China Mobile will begin selling the iPhone 5 in September -- a report that by Friday had made its way to the Shanghai Daily and the Reuters wire.

    White may be right about the significance of these reports over the next decade, but it's too soon for Apple investors to start counting those hundreds of million subscribers.

    It's a question of protocols.

    Although business in greater China has been booming for Apple -- $5 billion in sales in the first six months of fiscal 2011 versus $3 billion in all of 2010 -- the company has access to only a small fraction of China's 896 million mobile wireless subscribers.

    Of China's three largest carriers, Apple has a deal with only one -- China Unicom (CHU), the country's second largest. And of China's nearly 900 million subscribers, only 74 million have access to 3G networks. Finally, China Mobile's 3G network uses a home-grown protocol -- TD-SCDMA -- that is incompatible with Apple's current generation of iPhones. On Thursday, White suggested that Apple would have to build a special version of the iPhone 5 to work on China Mobile's network, something it has so far been reluctant to do.

    China Mobile has already announced that it will carry Apple's 4G iPhones when a LTE (long-term evolution) version is ready. When that happens is anybody's guess.

    So the deals Tim Cook was making in China this week may someday take their place among the great wonders of the tech world. But probably not by September.

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