通常来说，历史表现并不能保证未来的走势。不过，通过近期的两份报告，我们却发现，苹果公司（Apple）股价的走势规律非常有趣。

    两周之前，在投资网站寻找阿尔法（Seeking Alpha）上，贾森•施瓦兹撰文阐述了苹果公司股票的一个周循环规律，即每周一股票走低，而到周四则会上涨。他在报告中指出，在过去32周内，苹果公司的股价从周五到周一下跌的次数为16次，但从周一的低点到周四走高的次数为27次。施瓦兹经营着时事通讯《经济气象站》（Economic Weather Station（30美元/月）），目前，他已经开始投入自己的资金，把宝押在所谓的“周一至周四苹果周期”上面。

    与此同时，市场研究机构Bullish Cross的分析师安迪•扎克发现了苹果公司股票更深层次的走势规律。近期，安迪•扎克的网站也开始收费（40美元/月）。

    过去8年中，从每年七月或八月（唯一的例外是2008年的金融危机）开始，苹果公司的股票几乎都会出现大幅回升，并一直持续到来年一月份或二月份。

    而每次回升之后，股价会从一月份（6次）或二月份（2次）开始调整，八年来从无例外。每年春季末或夏季，苹果公司股票的下跌幅度都在12%到43%之间。

    支持这一走势规律的理由非常充分。

    通常情况下，公司在第一和第二季度（苹果公司的第二和第三财季）的发展放缓。而在年中，形势开始好转，因为，公司会在六月份召开开发者大会，并在六七月份推出新款iPhone（今年除外）；九月，为了迎接假期销售旺季，公司会推出一系列新产品。在过去三年中，有两年冬季的低迷状况尤为严重，主要原因是在一月份，公司宣布史蒂夫•乔布斯因病需要暂时离开工作岗位。

    对于未来苹果公司股票的走势，扎克做出了一些预测。但他的报告中，大部分都是在回答投资者提出的问题。这些投资者认为，苹果公司的股票目前处于低点，将会出现反弹，因此买入了2012年1月的认购期权（其中包括11,000多份2012年1月19日到期的认购期权，执行价为400美元。如果到期时苹果的股价低于400美元，这些期权将变得毫无价值。）

    扎克警告投资者，尽管苹果公司的股票按他的话说“非常便宜，并且增长势头强劲”，但实际上，市场对“宏观环境”的看法比公司的基本面更加重要。

    关于这种看法涉及的因素——从欧洲的债务危机到美联储对于二次量化宽松政策（QE2）（该政策按计划将在本周终止）的决定，扎克的结论是我见过的最有说服力的，所以绝对值得掏钱订阅。

    那么持有一月份400期权的投资者又该何去何从？

    扎克写道：“最可能出现的情况是，每股价格强势突破400美元大关，最高可达到420美元，之后会在期权到期时，被调整到400美元，使400美元期权的持有者面临灭顶之灾。如果发生这种情况，我丝毫不会感到吃惊。我们需要采取不同的策略，使投资者尽可能把前半年损失的价值收回。然后耐心等待行情好转。”

    了解更多关于Bullish Cross公司的信息，请点击此处。

    With the usual caveat that past performance is no guarantee of anything, two recent reports have uncovered interesting patterns in Apple's (AAPL) share price.

    Two weeks ago on Seeking Alpha, Jason Schwarz documented a weekly cycle of Monday lows and Thursday highs. Over the past 32 weeks, he reports, Apple's share price has fallen from Friday to Monday 16 times and climbed from Monday's low to a Thursday high 27 times. Schwarz, who runs a newsletter called the Economic Weather Station ($30/mos.), has started betting his own money on the Monday-Thursday Apple cycle.

    Meanwhile, Bullish Cross's Andy Zaky, who recently put his website behind a paywall ($40/mos.), has discovered an even deeper pattern.

    Nearly every year for the past eight (the exception being the collapse of 2008), there's been a major rally in Apple that starts in July or August and runs to January or February.

    Then, every year for the past eight, the run-up has been followed by a correction that begins in January (6 times) or February (2 times) and by late spring or summer has shaved between 12% and 43% off Apple's share price.

    There are good reasons for this pattern.

    The first and second quarters (Apple's second and third fiscal quarters) are traditionally slow ones for the company. The action tends to pick up mid-year with the developers conference in June, the release (except for this year) of a new iPhone in June-July, and the September introduction of a crop of new products in time for the big holiday selling season. Exacerbating the mid-winter doldrums in two of the past three years has been the announcement in January that Steve Jobs was taking a medical leave.

    Zaky makes some specific predictions about where he thinks Apple's share price is headed. But he spends much of his report trying to answer the questions he gets every day from investors who have bet that Apple's share price will go up from its current lows by buying January 2012 calls (including more than 11,000 January 400s that will expire worthless on January 19, 2012 if Apple is trading below $400).

    He warns that although Apple is, in his words, "dirt cheap and firing on all cylinders," the market's perception of what he calls the "macro environment" is actually more important than the company's fundamentals.

    His summary of the factors involved in that perception -- from the European debt crisis to what the Fed decides to do about QE2, which is scheduled to expire this week -- is a cogent as any I have read and well worth the price of admission.

    So what about all those investors holding January 400 calls?

    "The most likely scenario," he writes, "is a solid break above $400 to a high of $420 a share, then a manipulated pull-back to $400 at expiration to wipe out $400 call-holders. That scenario wouldn't surprise me at all. We'll get into the different strategies one can employ to maximize their chances of restoring significant lost value as a result of the first-half woes. Stay tuned for more."

    To find out more about Bullish Cross, click here.