对于苹果公司来说，没有任何一款产品对公司业绩的贡献率能超过iPhone。

    在今年三月份结束的第二财度里，苹果共售出1，865万台iPhone，iPhone及其周边产品和服务共为苹果创造了1，230亿美元的营业收入，差不多正好占了苹果公司该季度总销售额的50%——比Mac、iPod和iPad的总和还要多。

    苹果将于下周公布第三季度财报，每个关注苹果公司的人——无论是其最坚定的投资人，还是最直接的竞争对手，都会格外关注上季度苹果究竟卖出了多少台iPhone.

    我们调查的39位分析人士的预测值有的高有的低。其中最高的是罗马尼亚数学家尼古拉•米哈拉奇在科技博客Traderhood上发布的预测，米哈拉奇在巴黎大学执教，他的预测数据往往比较乐观；最低的预测来自投资和资产管理公司尼达姆（Needham）的分析师查理•沃尔夫，他是一名研究苹果的老手，预测往往趋于保守。

    这39位分析人士的预测平均值为1，690万台，这表明iPhone的销量相比去年同一季度上涨了101%，这也预示着在过去四年里，苹果已经总共卖出了超过1.25亿台iPhone。

    这39位分析师包括14位业余分析师和25名专业人士。本季度他们的平均预测要比上几个季度更加接近。14位业余分析师的平均预测值为1，780万台，而专业分析师们的平均预测值为1，640万台。苹果的收入报告下周二就会公布，届时我们就能看出谁预测得更准确。

    以下谨为大家列出到目前为止我们收集到的预测值及期日期。“Q2排名”一栏则显示了上季度每位分析师的预测值有多准确（数值越低表示预测越准确）。

    【更新：自从本文发表后，又有三位分析师公布了本季度iPhone的销量预测，他们是：私募投资公司Wedbush的斯科特•萨瑟兰（1，865万台），瑞银（UBS）的梅纳德•乌姆（1，835万台）和花旗银行的理查德•加德纳（1，800万台）。这样一来，华尔街专业分析师们的平均值就被抬高到1，660万台，总体平均预测值也突过了1，700万台大关。】

    No product contributes more to Apple's (AAPL) bottom line than the iPhone.

    In the 2nd fiscal quarter that ended in March, when the company sold a record 18.65 million units, the iPhone and related products and services generated $12.3 billion in revenue, almost exactly 50% of Apple's total sales for the quarter -- more than the Mac, iPod and iPad combined.

    So when Apple reports its 3rd quarter earnings next week, everybody who follows the company -- from its most steadfast investors to its fiercest competitors -- will be paying particular attention to how many iPhones it sold.

    The estimates of the 39 analysts we polled for our quarterly earnings smackdown were all over the lot, from a high of 20.25 million from Traderhood's Nicolae Mihalache, a Romanian mathematician who teaches at the University of Paris and tends to overestimate, to 15 million from Needham's Charlie Wolf, a veteran Apple hand who tends to come in low.

    The average all the estimates, 16.9 million, represents a 101% increase over the same quarter last year, and would bring the total number of iPhones sold over the past four years to more than 125 million.

    The 39 analysts in our survey included 14 amateurs and 25 professionals. Their average estimates were closer than in past quarters. Among the amateurs it was 17.8 million. Among the pros, 16.4 million. We'll find out whose estimates were closest to the mark when Apple reports its earnings next Tuesday.

    Below: The estimates we've gathered so far and the dates they were submitted. The Q2 rank numbers show how accurate each analyst's estimates were last quarter (the lower the better).

    [UPDATE: Three more analysts have come in with iPhone numbers since this was posted: Wedbush's Scott Sutherland (18.65 million), UBS's Maynard Um (18.35) and CitiGroup's Richard Gardner (18 million). That brings the Wall Street consensus up to 16.6 million and puts the overall average above the 17 million mark.]