去年夏天，当苹果（Apple）股价达到260美元时，我们基于尼古拉•米哈拉齐的分析数据发表了一篇文章。米哈拉齐是一位罗马尼亚裔数学家，在巴黎大学任教。他当时利用大量图表和各种准则来跟踪苹果的业绩。其中既有广为人知的P/E标准（市盈率，即股价与净利润之比），也有非常晦涩难懂的P - $EG标准（用每股价格与每股现金持有量的差值除以年增长率。）

    鉴于苹果的PEG（市盈率除以净利润的年增长率）仅为0.25，米哈拉齐当时得出结论称，苹果260美元的股价仍有很大增长空间。（一般认为，当一只股票的PEG小于1时，该股票股价存在低估。）

    米哈拉齐在恰好是一年之后，即本周二时再次关注了这个话题。他在股市及金融研究网站Seeking Alpha发表文章探讨苹果目前400美元的股价是否仍被低估。

    事实上他得出结论称，仍然主要从PEG方面考虑，苹果的股价与一年前相比，低估程度甚至更大。苹果在过去12个月的净利润年复增长率高达90%，而其股价仅上涨了50%，所以其PEG从0.25下滑至0.17。

    基于这点，米哈拉齐做出了如下预测：

    “为了保险起见，同时避免出现高得离奇的估值预测，我假定苹果在2012和2013年市盈率将进一步下降（12和10），同时其利润增长率也出现下降（分别为80%和60%）。除非苹果突然一蹶不振，我预计一年之后，苹果股价将达到550美元甚至更高，2012年底将达到650美元，而2013年底至少达到850美元。”

    【苹果股价周二以403.41美元收盘，上涨4.91美元（1.23%），当天股价最高达到404.50美元。】

    米哈拉齐经常对苹果做出很高预测。不过在我们最近进行的一次苹果收益预测比赛中，米哈拉齐的表现远超其他分析师。我们当时比较了48位分析师对苹果2011年第三财季的预测数据，其中既有专业分析师，也有业余分析师。

    译者：项航

    Last summer, when Apple (AAPL) was trading for $260 a share, we ran an item on some analytical work by Nicholae Mihalache, a Romanian mathematician who teaches at the University of Paris. He had prepared a series of charts tracking Apple's performance using various criteria, from the familiar P/E (price to earnings) ratio to the more obscure P - $EG (the difference between share price and cash holdings per share divided by annual growth rate).

    He concluded, based primarily on Apple's PEG (price over earnings divided by growth), which at the time was 0.25, that Apple at $260 had considerable room to grow. (Traditionally, any stock with a PEG less than 1.0 is considered undervalued.)

    Mihalache returned to the subject Tuesday, exactly one year later, with an article in Seeking Alpha that asks whether Apple at $400 is still undervalued.

    In fact he concludes that, based primarily on the PEG ratio, Apple's shares are even more undervalued now than they were a year ago. The company's earnings over the past 12 months have grown at the rate of 90% per year while its stock is up about 50%, moving Apple's PEG from 0.25 to 0.17.

    On that basis he makes some forecasts:

    "In order to be conservative and to avoid ridiculously high valuation predictions," he writes, "I will assume further P/E compression (12 and 10) and earnings growth cooling off in 2012 and 2013 (respectively, 80% and 60%). Barring any market meltdown, I predict that one year from now AAPL will be at $550 or more, $650 by the end of 2012, and at least $850 by the end of 2013."

    [The stock closed Tuesday at $403.41, up $4.91 (1.23%) for the day, having traded as high as $404.50.]

    Mihalache tends to set high bars for Apple. But in our most recent earnings smackdown, in which we compared the Q3 2011 estimates of 48 Apple analysts -- professional and amateur -- Mihalache's were, by a large margin, the best.