iPod海报。资料来源：苹果公司
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苹果（Apple）失去舵手，未来将会怎样？史蒂夫•乔布斯辞职后，鲍勃•霍夫曼对这家公司的命运并不看好。 这位来自旧金山的广告公司高管开设有博客“广告非常人”（The Ad Contrarian），并编撰同名手册，总结自己对广告业的见解。他在博客中归纳了时下业界对苹果的主流看法：“乔布斯建立了强大的企业文化，为公司网罗了一批有头脑的员工，并在公司内部贯彻了一种独到的思维方式，这一切足以延续苹果的辉煌。”但霍夫曼本人对这种说法并不买账。 霍夫曼坚信，天赋是不可传递的。他认为，未来几年，乔布斯开创的事业将继续保持发展的势头，苹果公司将延续辉煌，但之后，正如他写道：“智慧的光芒将会逐渐黯淡。” 他的观点正确与否？我们该如何判断？请留意苹果的广告。霍夫曼认为，乔布斯不仅是技术领域的先知，也是同时代中最优秀的广告人。乔布斯离开后，苹果将被“一双毫无生气的手牢牢握住方向盘”，最早的迹象将出现在苹果的广告中。 他说，应该引起注意的迹象包括下面五种：（引述自霍夫曼的博客） 1. 逐渐变化的品牌理念：苹果公司的品牌构建是自上而下的。也就是说，由产品来定义品牌。苹果公司的广告基本上都是为特定的产品量身定做，而非品牌本身（我承认曾经有过“不同凡响”系列广告，但那不过是昙花一现）。请留意，这种传统会慢慢流失。 2. 广告代理商的变更：多年以来，在乔布斯的强势领导之下，公司的营销人员被迫退居二线，而现在，他们可能突然冲到前台。虽然他们不敢公然对抗乔布斯留下的理念，但在代理商层面做手脚同样可以达到目的。 3. 扭曲的企划逻辑：留意针对消费者而非苹果产品的广告。注意在线“互动”这种愚蠢的把戏。或者留意公司对社交媒体的迎合。 4. 广告形式复杂化:很大程度上来说，苹果公司广告的卓越之处就在于它的简洁。留意苹果是否会推出复杂的理念，或者在同一广告中同时宣传多款产品。 5. 广告渠道:苹果公司对网络媒体的使用向来较为谨慎。公司大部分广告主要集中在传统媒介——电视、平面和户外等。苹果公司是否会突然随大流，选择新的媒介？请睁大眼睛看清楚。 霍夫曼建议：“一旦库比蒂诺（苹果总部——译注）出现了上述任何一种迹象，别犹豫，赶快抛售手里的苹果股票。” 翻译：刘进龙/汪皓 |
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Bob Hoffman is pessimistic about the future of Apple (AAPL) without Steve Jobs at the helm. The San Francisco-based advertising executive who writes a blog called The Ad Contrarian and a slim volume of aphorisms by the same name doesn't buy the consensus that, as he puts it, "Jobs built a strong culture, hired smart people, and taught a way of thinking that will serve Apple well in the future." Hoffman believes that genius is, in a word, nontransferable. He thinks it likely that Apple will continue to shine for a few years while the initiatives that Jobs started are still in the pipeline, but then, as he puts it, "the startling brilliance will slowly fade." How will we tell if he's right or wrong? Watch the ads. Jobs was not just a technological visionary, says Hoffman. He was also the best ad man of his generation. The first clues that "dull hands have grabbed the wheel" will show in Apple's advertising. Watch, he says, for these five tell-tale signs: (I quote) 1. Creeping Brandism: The Apple brand was built bottom-up. That is, the products defined the brand. Virtually every Apple ad was about a product, not the brand (okay, there was "Think Different" but that didn't last.) Keep an eye out for the erosion of this discipline. 2. Agency change: Vapid marketing people relegated to the background all these years by Jobs' dominance may suddenly start flexing. They wouldn't dare contradict Jobs' legacy, but they could accomplish the same thing by undermining the agency. 3. The Tortured Logic of Account Planning: Look for ads about you the consumer instead of Apple products. Look for moronic online "engagement" gimmicks. Or look for social media pandering. 4. Complications: Part of the brilliance of Apple advertising has been its simplicity. Keep an eye out for complicated ideas or ads with more than one product. 5. Media: Apple has used online media sparingly. The preponderance of its advertising has been conducted in traditional media -- TV, print, and outdoor. Watch to see if Apple suddenly starts going all trendy and new age in its media choices. "If you start seeing any of these signs coming out of Cupertino," Hoffman advises, "sell your shares." |
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