摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）的马克•莫斯科维茨是华尔街上最沉得住气的分析师之一，日前，他发表了苹果公司观察人士一致认同的观点：该公司将发布两款而非一款iPhone——iPhone 5以及莫斯科维茨所说的iPhone 4+。

    莫斯科维茨在周一致客户的报告中描述了其“研究”发现。此处引用如下：

    • 我们目前预计将有两款新iPhone面世。我们的研究显示，其中之一是iPhone 5，它更轻更薄，能同时支持GSM和CDMA等多种制式，是一部“世界性”的智能手机。另一款手机是iPhone 4+，它以目前的iPhone 4为基础，但进行了一些细微改进，将定位于中端市场并瞄准中国客户。至于目前的iPhone 4，我们预计它将和3GS一样，主打低端市场。

    • 新款iPhone 4+将面向中国市场。我们的研究显示，苹果将和一家或多家中国运营商合作推出iPhone 4+。我们认为这款面向中国的iPhone可能正在开发中，但这并不意味着这款手机是中国地区独享的。仍然会有别的情况出现，特别是在中端市场。我们的观点是，虽然专为一个区域的少数几家无线运营商定制设备存在风险，但无论如何，中国市场的庞大规模足以抵消这种劣势。目前，中国联通（China Unicom）是苹果iPhone 4在中国的独家经销商。

    • 苹果将与数家大型运营商合作，从而迎来另新一轮的大爆炸式增长。在6月份的财季，苹果增加了42家运营商，他们对苹果本季度远远超出预料的2,030万部iPhone出货量做出了不小贡献。虽然我们认为，今后苹果运营商数量的季度性增量不会出现这么大的增长，但几家潜在的大型运营商带来的影响同样不可小觑。中国电信（China Telecom，一亿用户）、斯普林特（Sprint）（5,200万用户）、德国电信美国公司（T-Mobile USA）（3,300万用户）等都是现成的例子。

    • 此外，我们不认为iPad 3将于今年上市，苹果一点都不着急。其它平板电脑跌跌撞撞。摩托罗拉移动（Motorola Mobility）和RIM的最新产品让人大失所望。我们也曾赶在索尼（Sony）平板电脑发布前观摩了其演示情况。但它并没有给我们留下什么深刻的印象。我们认为，索尼平板电脑的倾斜式或斜面式背部设计使其看来更像一摞僵硬的、折叠起来的纸张，而不像21世纪的个人电子消费产品。”

    莫斯科维茨写道：“如果苹果成功开拓与新的大型运营商的合作，中国移动（China Mobile）和中国电信分别拥有大约6亿和1亿用户，斯普林特和德国电信美国公司则拥有5,200万和3,300万用户，它们的效果应该和6月份季度苹果运营商数量大幅增加的效果相当。换句话说，我们相信在中短期内，iPhone季度销量有望给投资者带来更多实实在在的惊喜。总之，假如苹果能在今秋推出两款新iPhone并在美国及中国与新的运营商达成合作，我们将见证一场‘大爆炸’。”

    莫斯科维茨坚持其每股525美元的价格目标。本周一中午，苹果的盘中交易价创下新高，突破了每股410美元。

    译者：项航

    J.P. Morgan's Mark Moskowitz, one of the last holdouts on Wall Street, has come around to what has become conventional wisdom among Apple (AAPL) watchers: That the company is set to release not one but two iPhones, an iPhone 5 and what Moskowitz calls an iPhone 4-plus.

    In a report to clients Monday he describes what his "research" has turned up. I quote:

    • We now expect two new iPhones. Our research indicates that there will be an iPhone 5 based on a lighter, thinner form factor that is GSM + CDMA capable, i.e., a "world-mode" smartphone. A second device (4-plus) based on the current iPhone 4 but with some minor improvements could target the midrange and focus on China. As for the current iPhone 4, we expect it to subsume 3GS as the lower-end offering.

    • A new iPhone 4-plus could target China. Our research indicates Apple could release an iPhone 4-plus, targeting one or more China network carriers. While we think a China-focused iPhone could be in the works, it is not likely to be exclusive to the region. There could be other use cases, particularly in the midrange. Either way, the size of the China opportunity overcomes any potential drawbacks of making a specially-designed device for a few wireless carriers in one region, in our view. In China, Apple currently sells its iPhone 4 only through China Unicom.

    • Expecting another potential big bang with a few big carriers. Apple added 42 carriers in the June quarter, which partly contributed to the bigger-than-expected iPhone units of 20.3 million. While we do not expect a similar QoQ increase in the number of carriers going forward, we think that the size of the next potential new carriers can have a big impact. Examples include China Telecom (100M subs), Sprint (52M subs), and T-Mobile USA (33M subs).

    • Separately, we do not expect iPad 3 this year, but there's no rush. The other tablet entrants have stumbled. Offerings by MMI and RIM have been the latest disappointments. Also, we had the opportunity to demo Sony's tablet before its launch. We were not impressed. Sony's tablet lacks the refined, sleek feel of the iPad. We felt that the sloping or bezel-like back of the Sony tablet feels more like petrified, folded-over pages than a 21st century consumer electronics device.

    "If penetrated," he writes, "China Mobile and China Telecom with approximately 600 million and 100 million subscribers, alongside Sprint and T-Mobile USA with 52 million and 33 million subscribers, stand to have an effect tantamount to the big increase in the number of carriers exhibited in the June quarter. In other words, we believe that investors should start to prepare for more positive surprises related to the quarterly run rate of iPhones in the near- to mid-term. In summary, we would expect such a big bang if Apple introduces two new iPhones this fall and penetrates the untapped U.S. and China carriers."

    Moskowitz is sticking with his price target of $525 a share. At midday Monday, Apple was setting new all-time intraday highs above $410 a share.