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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果Siri有望催生会听话的电视遥控器

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年10月12日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
有一位分析师也许已经捕捉到了Siri语言界面最牛的应用,那就是把它电视遥控器来用。

    图片来源:苹果公司、TV Guide。图片由photoshop合成。

    Cross Research市场研究公司的分析师莎伦•克劳斯在上周五致客户的一封信中先是哀悼了一下乔布斯,然后话锋一转,开始详细评论苹果(Apple)在乔布斯去世前一天发布的自然语言界面Siri。

    克劳斯关注的重点与苹果高级副总裁斯科特•福斯特的产品演示和苹果官方炫目的促销视频所体现的都不一样,倒是很符合乔布斯生前最后的爱好:看电视。克劳斯写道:

    Siri技术可能催生出一个有趣的应用,也就是Apple TV(既有可能在现有设备上实现,也有可能是苹果即将推出的自有品牌电视机)。我们认为这项应用将解决电视行业在摇控技术上的难题。有了这个应用,我们就相当于有了一个智能的电视或设备,用户可以对它发出指令:“我想看扬基队(Yankees)或红袜队(Red Sox)的比赛”,而电视会迅速做出应答,无需用户查看收视指南或使用遥控器便可切换频道。用户甚至还可以决定观看高清还是标清的节目,因为如果有高清的节目可看,用户也许想看高清版的。另外,用户还可以在收看电视的同时,命令设备把另外一部电视剧所有最新剧集全部录下来。最后,由于电视是联网的,因此一旦用户的iPhone或者电脑收到了一条新消息,就会在电视上显示出来,用户可以通过电视进行回复。

    Siri的项目代号叫做CALO,意为“可学习和组织的认知助手”,这是由美国国防部高级研究计划署(DARPA)赞助的项目,由300名科研人员耗时五年推出。苹果公司上周末发布Siri的时候,它的人工智能技术也许还不够成熟,可能只能听懂用户不到一半的问话。但要听懂整天窝在沙发上看电视的宅男宅女们在嘟囔什么,浏览《电视指南》(TV Guide)的数据库,对它来说就不过是小菜一碟了。克劳斯指出,等到Siri全线安装到苹果的所有iOS产品线上——包括它现有和未来的电视设备上,到时人们可能就不会再需要遥控器了。

    不过,电视只不过是Siri可能的用途之一。即便是在苹果收购Siri之前,它已经能够调用许多数据库的信息了,根据维基百科,Siri可以使用以下数据库:

    • 它可以在OpenTable、Gayot、CitySearch、BooRah、Yelp、Yahoo Local、ReserveTravel和Localeze等网站上搜索餐饮和商业的问题及解答。

    • 在Eventful、StubHub和LiveKick等网站上搜索活动和音乐会信息。

    • 在Movie Tickets、烂番茄网(Rotten Tomatoes)、《纽约时报》(New York Times)网站上搜索影讯和影评。

    • 在True Knowledge、Bing Answers和Wolfram Alpha网站上搜索事实问题的答案。

    • 在必应(Bing)和谷歌(Google)上进行网页搜索。

    克劳斯总结说:“我们相信,自然语音界面的运用(而且可能它以后还可以识别不同人的声音)有一天或许将改变我们与电子设备的互动方式,并且为苹果提供巨大的技术优势。理由很简单,因为我们从来没有见过可以与这项技术媲美的人工智能或其它消费系统。因此,我们认为,苹果的竞争对手要想达到Siri的人工智能水平不仅难度大,而且耗时长。微软(Microsoft)目前似乎主要关注的是手势操作技术,谷歌似乎主要关注高级翻译。而苹果的竞争对手们最有可能获得的人工智能技术则是以IBM的Watson为代表的企业级应用,因为Watson也很可能向各种设备提供托管和本地实施服务,这也正是苹果为Siri选择的道路。”

    译者:朴成奎

    In a note to clients issued Friday, Cross Research's Shannon Cross pivots from the Steve Jobs eulogies to take a closer look at Siri, the natural language interface that Apple (AAPL) unveiled the day before he died.

    In particular, she singles out an application that wasn't in Scott Forstall's demos or Apple's slick promotional video, but which fits perfectly into Jobs' final hobby: television. She writes:

    One interesting application of the Siri technology would be with Apple TV (either the existing device or actual TV's that Apple may launch). We think this would solve the industry's difficulties with remote controls... We think it would be very compelling to own a TV or a device that could quickly answer the request, "I want to watch the Yankees/Red Sox game," by changing the TV channel without requiring the user to look at a guide or use a remote control, or even specifying HD or standard definition feeds, since you would want the HD channel if available. Or, you could instruct the device to record all new episodes of a show, without leaving the program you are currently watching. Finally, since you are online, a Siri enabled TV could answer whether your iPhone or computer has received a new message, and let you respond accordingly.

    The artificial intelligence in Siri -- the product of a five-year, 300-researcher DARPA project called CALO -- may not be mature enough to understand half of what users are going to ask of it when it gets released later this week (see Will the iPhone's Siri have its 'Egg freckles' moment?), but making sense of the commands grunted by couch potatoes and navigating TV Guide's database are almost certainly within its ken. And as Cross points out, when Siri is installed across all of Apple's iOS product line -- including its current and future TV devices -- the need for a physical TV remote might finally disappear.

    TV, however, is only one possible application for Siri, which tapped into a broad range of databases even before Apple acquired it, including, according to Wikipedia:

    • OpenTable, Gayot, CitySearch, BooRah, Yelp, Yahoo Local, ReserveTravel, Localeze for restaurant and business questions and actions;

    • Eventful, StubHub, and LiveKick for events and concert information;

    • MovieTickets, RottenTomatoes, New York Times for movie information and reviews;

    • True Knowledge, Bing Answers, and Wolfram Alpha for factual question answering;

    • Bing and Google for Web search.

    "We believe," Cross concludes, "the use of natural language and potentially the ability to distinguish between voices could one day change the way we interact with electronic devices and provide a substantial technology advantage to Apple. Quite simply, we have not seen a demonstration of comparable AI in any other consumer system. As a result, we think it will be difficult and time-consuming for Apple's competitors to match Siri's level of AI. Microsoft (MSFT) appears to be focusing on gestures (Kinect) while Google (GOOG) seems to have focused on advanced translation. Enterprise level applications, such as IBM's (IBM) Watson, would appear to be the obvious hope for licensing by Apple's competitors, as it would lend itself to the hybrid hosted and local implementation that Apple has chosen for Siri."

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