本周二，加拿大投资公司Canaccord Genuity分析师T•迈克尔•沃克利向客户发布报告显示，目前的形势对苹果（Apple）投资者可谓喜忧参半。

    忧的是沃克利预计亚马逊（Amazon）Kindle Fire将大幅削弱iPad在全球平板电脑市场的主导地位，后者市场份额将从第三季度的74%急剧下滑至第四季度的53.2%。【点击此处查看具体报道。不过，苹果高管上周向摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）表示，这并非完全是坏消息，因为他们预计亚马逊199美元平板电脑完全是亏本销售，会进一步激发消费者对iPad的热情，而后者为苹果带来的利润非常丰厚。】

    喜的是iPhone在与谷歌（Google）Android的竞争中占据了上风，沃克利认为iPhone“市场份额有望强劲增长”。由于增势迅猛，他已经将iPhone第四季度的出货量从2,900万部上调至了3,050万部。

    iPhone销量真可谓疯狂增长，要知道，在截至9月份的第三季度，苹果仅售出1,710万部iPhone。

    上面两幅饼图表分别显示了第三季度全球智能手机市场份额分布，以及沃克利对四季度的预测。（我们在下面复制了沃克利的数据。）苹果市场份额增长了6个百分点（环比激增42%），值得注意的是，苹果的部分竞争对手市场份额环比下滑幅度却高达两位数，其中包括：

    宏达电（HTC）：下滑4.3%（环比下滑39%）

    诺基亚（Nokia）：下滑2.4%（环比下滑17%）

    索尼爱立信（Sony Ericsson）：下滑0.6%（环比下滑11%）

    沃克利预测，三星（Samsung）第四季度智能手机销量将基本保持平稳，预计出货量为3,450万部，不过市场份额将下滑1.3%。

    具体数据见下图：

    A note to clients issued Tuesday by Canaccord Genuity's T. Michael Walkley had good news and bad news for Apple (AAPL) investors.

    The bad news, which we reported here, was that he expects sales of Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle Fire to cut sharply into the iPad's dominance of the worldwide market for tablet computers, reducing its unit share from 74% in calendar Q3 to 53.2% in Q4. (This is not such bad news, Apple execs told J.P. Morgan last week, because they expect the $199 tablet that Amazon sells at a loss to whet consumer appetites for the iPad, which Apple sells at a tidy profit.)

    The good news in Walkley's note is that he is seeing "strong global share gains" for the iPhone versus Google's (GOOG) Android this quarter -- strong enough for him to increase his iPhone unit sales estimate for Q4 from 29 million to 30.5 million.

    The change is even more dramatic when you consider that Apple sold only 17.1 million iPhones in the quarter that ended in September.

    The pie charts above show what the smartphone market looked like in Q3 and what Walkley expects it to look like at the end of December. (We've copied his data below the fold.) In addition to Apple's 6 point (42%) increase in market share, note the double-digit share drops among its competitors, including:

    HTC, down 4.3 points (39%)

    Nokia (NOK), down 2.4 points (17%)

    Sony Ericsson (SNE), down 0.6 points (11%)

    Samsung is basically holding steady this quarter, according to Walkley's forecast, shipping an estimated 34.5 million smartphones but losing 1.3% of its market share.

    See the spreadsheet below.