2008年底时金融危机还看不到一丝希望，危机重重，没人知道前方会不会有更大的灾难，但巴尼•弗兰克却保持着乐观。他对一个消费者游说团体说：“我相信明年将是自大萧条实施新政（New Deal）以来公共政策最好的一年。”

    这位美国众议院金融服务委员会（House Financial Services Committee）主席素来持有大政府论调，他的这番乐观的言论对华尔街来说可不是什么好消息。

    弗兰克的预测只是在时间上出了错：堪称大萧条以来华尔街最全面的监管法案——多德-弗兰克法案直到2010年才实施。（随着取得这样重大的胜利，弗兰克近日宣布明年将不寻求连任。）新法案事无巨细，堪比前75年针对金融服务业所有联邦监管条例的总和。

    仅此一项法案已足以将金融业脱胎换骨，但祸不单行，华尔街同时还面临着糟糕的经济环境：美国增长缓慢，亚洲增速放缓，欧洲病入膏肓，我们都知道更大的危机可能正在再度逼近。

    双重重压之下，华尔街已不再是三年前的华尔街。这些变化对于投资者来说喜忧参半，甚至对客户来说也是如此，而他们原本应该是这样大范围监管改革的受益者。虽然新法规还远未完备，华尔街已开始瘦身行动，也不再那么冒进。

    除此之外，华尔街还遭到了人们的唾弃。“占领华尔街”运动的参与者们可能已经四下散去，但当初促成这场示威运动的怒火并未消退。公关公司爱德曼（Edelman）最近编制的信任度调查报告（Trust Barometer）显示，全球最不可信的产业是保险、银行和金融服务，这差不多就是在说华尔街。

    名誉扫地固然糟糕，但华尔街眼前面临的更紧迫的问题却是恶劣的商业环境。“华尔街大公司扩张过度，它们涉足的部分地区正在走下坡路，”2007年曾预测次贷危机的分析师梅里迪斯•惠特尼称。“过去一些年，华尔街有70-80%的收入来自美国和欧洲地区。如今这两个大陆都处于持续数年的去杠杆化过程中。华尔街公司承受了极大的压力。”

    目前超低的利率是另一个让人头痛的问题——这可能让很多人感到意外。一些人认为美联储（Fed）保持低利率是为了拯救银行业，让银行获取低成本资金。问题是银行的贷款利率也处于历史低点。存贷利差即银行家所谓的净息差，“在当前环境下很难获得，”一家国际性大银行的前高管称。这个问题很麻烦，因为“它直接影响到净利润。”很多华尔街人士事实上更乐于看到长期利率上升。

    与此同时，监管震荡才刚刚开始。多德-弗兰克法案要求起草数百条新条例，华盛顿还远远跟不上进度。一定程度上是因为华尔街正在大力游说，试图影响这些条例。估计要完成所有条例还得再花上2-5年。要搞明白为什么会花这么长时间，以及为什么华尔街会这么紧张即将到来的监管改革，不妨看看最受关注的新监管规定，也就是历史性的沃尔克法则（Volcker Rule）。

    理论上，它可以用一句话概括，即银行不能进行自营账户交易。但目前的草案厚达288页，包括银行和其他行业可能涉及的1,000多个问题。美国联邦存款保险公司（The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.）将在明年的某个时候宣布最终条例，随后银行和美国联邦存款保险公司才会开始讨论这个条例究竟意味着什么。

    The brighter side of financial cataclysm wasn't easy to see in late 2008 -- the crisis was at its most acute, and no one knew if Armageddon lay ahead -- but Barney Frank was upbeat. He told a consumer lobbying group, "Next year will be, I believe, the best year for public policy since the New Deal."

    For anyone on Wall Street, that cheery forecast from the proudly big-government chairman of the House Financial Services Committee was not good news.

    Frank was wrong only on the timing: It took until 2010 to enact the Dodd-Frank law, the most sweeping regulation of Wall Street since the New Deal. (With his crowning achievement in place, Frank recently announced he won't seek reelection next year.) The new law is so vast that it nearly equals all federal regulation of financial services from the previous 75 years.

    That alone would have transformed the industry, but it's only part one of a double whammy. The other element is an awful economic environment -- slow growth in the U.S., slowing growth in Asia, and a European crisis so severe that, for all we know, Armageddon could be creeping up on us again.

    Combine those forces, and Wall Street is a deeply different place from what it was three years ago. The changes are a mixed bag for investors and even for customers, who were supposed to benefit from the massive regulatory overhaul. Though the new rules are far from complete, Wall Street is already becoming smaller and less adventurous.

    It's also despised. The Occupiers may have begun to disperse, but the fury that fueled them hasn't. The latest Trust Barometer compiled by Edelman, a communications firm, finds that the three least trusted industries in the world are insurance, banking, and financial services -- Wall Street.

    The industry's most immediate problem, worse even than its lousy reputation, is the terrible business climate. "The big firms are overextended, bloated in regions that are shrinking," says Meredith Whitney, the analyst who forecast the subprime disaster in 2007. "In past years, 70% to 80% of Wall Street revenue has come from the U.S. and Europe. Both continents are in the process of multiyear deleveraging. The firms have gale-force headwinds against them."

    Today's ultralow interest rates are another headache -- a fact that surprises many people. Some think the Fed is keeping rates low in order to rescue the banks by enabling them to obtain funds at low cost. Trouble is, the rates at which banks lend those funds are also hitting record lows. The spread between rates produces what bankers call net interest income, and "it's very hard to come by in this environment," says a former top bank executive. That's especially painful because "it goes straight to the bottom line." Many Wall Streeters would actually love to see long-term rates rise.

    Regulatory upheaval, meanwhile, is only getting started. Dodd-Frank requires hundreds of new rules to be written, and Washington is way behind schedule -- partly because Wall Street is lobbying aggressively to shape those rules. Expect another two to five years before they're finished. To see what's taking so long, and why Wall Street is nervous about what's coming, consider the new regulation with the highest profile of them all, the momentous Volcker Rule.

    In concept it can be stated in one short sentence: Banks can't trade for their own account. In practice, the current draft is 288 pages and includes over 1,000 questions to which banks and anyone else may respond. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will announce a final rule sometime next year. Then the banks and the FDIC can start arguing over what it means.